FCStone Grain Recap July 9, 2015

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "FCStone Grain Recap July 9, 2015"

Transcription

1 CORN: Values higher throughout the day on heavy volume as traders anticipate USDA s Friday S&D update and speculate on US crop problems. Weekly export sales of 535,000 tons vs 363,000 tons of old crop sold last year. 149,000 tons of new crop sales vs 382,000 last year. Cumulative sales down 3% and loadings down 5.2% from a year ago, largely in line with USDA s annual export forecast down 5%. No weekly milo sales reported. Total sales at 330 million bushels vs USDA s 350 annual export estimate. Trade continues to ponder an extremely wide range of new crop production ideas. Two analysts estimating US yield potential near 165 last week. One analyst lowering yield potential to 163 this week. Rains expected to continue with a focus in the wet eastern belt into the weekend. Some reporting Ohio and Indiana conditions the worst in decades. Trade debating possible Monday night crop rating changes. Crops however improving in the western belt with generally favorable conditions over Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa. A conservative estimate of production potential in some key states could suggest a yield potential below 160. Corn Yield View Est IL IN OH MO IA MN NATL Any type of a yield like this would find US stocks plunging with a carryout to use ratio supporting futures well above the $5.00 level. US Corn Planted 88.9 Harvested 81.1 Yield 159 Carryin 1876 Production This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by FCStone, LLC. FCStone, LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact FCStone designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by FCStone, LLC.

2 Available USDA Use Carryout 1036 Trade debating if USDA will alter the yield estimate from the June report in tomorrow s update. Trade guessing carryout in Friday s report at 1811 vs 1876 estimate in June with slightly larger feed and ethanol usage. Any larger feed use however would imply the trade is expecting a record fourth quarter feed disappearance which may be overly aggressive resulting in USDA not changing the annual feed use in tomorrow s report. Trade guessing new crop corn yield at in Friday s report. Funds long 59,000 contracts of corn futures. 982 contracts of July corn delivered with July expiring the 14 th. Increased farmer corn selling again encountered today as futures reached recent highs. Wetness concerns likely to continue in far eastern areas. Trade of course is cognizant that the infamous 1993 summer flood year saw Iowa corn yields drop 40% or 52 bu/acre from the then trend. This year s situation is certainly far different than the 93 experience but those type of sharp yield declines prompted by excessively wet conditions continues to haunt trader yield ideas. Trade will react to details of USDA s report tomorrow. SOYBEANS: Values exploding higher under the dual influence of world financial markets stabilizing and increasing trade anxiety ahead of USDA s Friday S&D updates. Weekly export sales of 41,000 tons vs 56,000 tons last year. New crop sales of 201,000 vs 526,000 last year. Meal sales at 101,000 vs 48,000 last year oil sold vs 12,800 last year. Total US soybean sales 47 million bushels above current USDA annual forecast vs sales 28 million above final loadings last year. US needs to load 52 million beans the remainder of the year vs 74 million last year. Total soybean meal sales can lag last year s pace modestly to reach USDA annual forecast. Total sales unshipped however at 2.2 mmt are nearly 700,000 tons above the year ago level. Trade continues to watch for cancelations of US sales with sharply discounted South American offerings. Trade now debating the possibility of substantially lower US final planted acreage and debating the imponderable of what eastern corn belt yields could be in current saturated conditions. A two million acres loss (3.3 million unplanted last week nationally) combined with some reduction in yield could find US stocks dropping sharply next year. US Soy Planted 83.1 (-2.0) Harvested 82.3 Yield Carryin Production Available USDA Use Carryout Page 2

3 Alternate Use Planted 83.1 Harvested 82.3 Yield Carryin Production Available Total Use Carryout Us Model Nov in: July Nov Hemisphere Model Nov Next March Even with possible smaller usage with larger South American stocks, US ending inventories next year would drop to levels that would historically be associated with values sharply above current prices. This true whether we look at a US price model or even a hemispheric price projection. Trade continues to be unduly influenced with last year s reported record 47.8 national yield. Stocks data would suggest this crop was overestimated. Interesting to consider the extreme yield variability in key states in just the last three years. Soy Yield Variability View 2012 LY Pct Change IL IN OH MO MI Trade continues to ponder US production potential as we view the portion of the US crop produced in both wet and better than last year regions. Page 3

4 Soybean Condition View Pct of Pct Rating National G/E Below Wet Areas Crop Year Ago IN OH IL MO MI Subtotal 36.6 Better Than Last Year IA AR MN WI Subtotal 29.6 One private analyst now lowering US yield potential to 43.5 bushels. Trade will carefully monitor Monday night crop ratings for an expected small improvement with better western conditions. Overall however the trade may be psychologically overestimating US production potential facing the possibility of a significant recalculation of US supply demand situation as we move into later summer. USDA will issue a resurvey of acres in the August production estimate. Rains expected to maintain wet weather concerns in eastern crop areas into next week. Inadequate monsoon reported in parts of India. Some heavy overnight rains thwarting last minute eastern belt soy planting. Funds long 35,000 soybeans, 37,000 meal and 21,000 oil. 717 contracts of oil delivered. Trade guessing new crop soy yield at 45 vs the 46 estimate in June in Friday s S&D update. Trade guessing a 287 US carryout in Friday s report. With no change in exports, this assumes a record fourth quarter find back of 143 million bushels vs a 97 million bushel find back last year and the previous record of 137 million in If USDA realistically addresses the significant loss of stocks in the June report, they could project an even smaller US carryout than the trade guess tomorrow. Trade debating eastern belt crop prospects recognizing that the infamous flood year of 1993 saw Iowa yields down 10.8 bushels or 26% from then trend. That year however saw persistent record rainfall throughout the summer. Current longer term maps project a more normal US situation. Trade will be debating how much early season crop damage from excessive moisture has occurred this year already all the way into the October crop report. Page 4

5 WHEAT: Values lagging row crop strength. Weekly export sales at 346,000 vs 338,000 last year. Early season sales 24% below last year s anemic pace. Negative hard red winter wheat sales reported. Funds now estimated being even Chicago wheat. Nine contracts of Kansas City July and 232 Chicago July wheat delivered. Trade attempting to buy recently delivered Toledo receipts. Trade guessing US winter wheat production in Friday report at 1480 vs 1505 estimate in June. Hard red winter production seen at 885, SRW at 400 and all wheat production at 2148 vs the 2121 estimate in June. ECBOT HIGH LOW CLOSE CHANGE July Corn Dec Corn /4 July Beans /2 Nov Beans July wheat Page 5

FCStone Grain Recap October 1, 2015

FCStone Grain Recap October 1, 2015 CORN: A choppy but firm market today. Today starts the march of the private crop estimates led off with FCStone s number this afternoon. Export sales reported today showed net bookings of 748.2 tmt as

More information

FCStone Grain Recap January 6, 2016

FCStone Grain Recap January 6, 2016 CORN: CH16 made new contract lows but were unable to hold below unchanged into the close. Weekly ethanol production marginally higher this week, up 4 thbpd to 996. Ethanol stocks built again reaching 21099

More information

2013 World Grain Outlook

2013 World Grain Outlook 2013 World Grain Outlook Presented by: John Roach February 18, 2013 Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully

More information

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr

Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr Market will worry about demand later Weekly Corn Review for May 11, 2016 By Bryce Knorr USDA didn t do much to help the corn market in its May 10 reports other than give soybeans a big lift. That could

More information

January USDA Report & Market Highlights

January USDA Report & Market Highlights January 2015 USDA Report & Market Highlights Corn Summary When the dust cleared, slightly friendly corn report with the USDA taking 2.4 bpa/191 mbu off its yield/production estimate. C/O 121 lower at 1.877

More information

Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin

Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin Grain Stocks Estimates: Can Anything Explain the Market Surprises of Recent Years? Scott H. Irwin http://nationalhogfarmer.com/weekly-preview/1004-corn-controversies-hog-market http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/sb10001424052970203752604576641561657796544

More information

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 20, 2015 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2015 Released: Friday, February 20, 2015 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

More information

CORN. July 29, Sep Corn Futures

CORN. July 29, Sep Corn Futures CORN SIDEWAYS GRIND September corn chopped sideways this week, losing half a cent and settling at $3.34 4. The crop continues to look better than normal and without any threatening weather in the forecast,

More information

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014

Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. 13 August 2014 Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call 13 August 2014 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

Grain Futures Markets & National Cash Indices Review & Observations thru July 27, 2012 PHI Market Analysis Manager Virg Robinson

Grain Futures Markets & National Cash Indices Review & Observations thru July 27, 2012 PHI Market Analysis Manager Virg Robinson Grain Futures Markets & National Cash Indices Review & Observations thru July 27, 2012 PHI Market Analysis Manager Virg Robinson S&P 500 FUTURES NEAR BULLISH BREAKOUT The S&P 500 futures monthly continuation

More information

Crop Insurance Plan Explanations and Review

Crop Insurance Plan Explanations and Review Crop Insurance Plan Explanations and Review Table of Contents Page Information/Insurance Plans 1 Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) 2 Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) 2 Income Protection (IP) 3 Group Risk

More information

July 10, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates

July 10, USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates July 10, 2015 - World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are lowered this month with reductions in corn beginning stocks and production. Corn beginning stocks for

More information

USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage Reports - June 30, 2014 University of Tennessee Extension Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower

USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage Reports - June 30, 2014 University of Tennessee Extension Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower USDA Grain Stocks and Acreage Reports - June 30, 2014 University of Tennessee Extension Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower Acreage Report USDA Summary: Corn planted area for all purposes in 2014 is estimated

More information

September 2016 Crop Market Update Public Policy Department Budget & Economic Analysis Team

September 2016 Crop Market Update Public Policy Department Budget & Economic Analysis Team September 2016 Crop Market Update Public Policy Department Budget & Economic Analysis Team U.S. and Foreign Stockpiles Remain Elevated John Newton, Ph.D., (202) 406-3729, jnewton@fb.org USDA s September

More information

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook

Grains and Oilseeds Outlook United States Department of Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Friday, February 26, 2016 www.usda.gov/oce/forum Agricultural Outlook Forum 2016 Released: Friday, February 26, 2016 GRAINS AND OILSEEDS

More information

Weekly Corn Commentary for the Week Ending 9/11/15 By Jalen Pietig, Grain Originator/Field Marketing Advisor. Corn Weekly Change.

Weekly Corn Commentary for the Week Ending 9/11/15 By Jalen Pietig, Grain Originator/Field Marketing Advisor. Corn Weekly Change. Weekly Corn Commentary for the Week Ending 9/11/15 By Jalen Pietig, Grain Originator/Field Marketing Advisor Highlights: 167.5 bushels per acre is the magic number USDA estimated as the national average

More information

USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports

USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports June 30, 2016 Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics University of Tennessee Extension USDA Acreage and Quarterly

More information

June Stocks & Seedings Analysis

June Stocks & Seedings Analysis June Stocks & Seedings Analysis June Corn Stocks Pegged at 3.743 Billion Bushels, up 977 Mil Bu from Last Year Mar-May Corn Quarterly S & D 11/12 12/13 13/14 Carryin 6,023 5,400 7,006 Imports 11 40 7 Total

More information

FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE

FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE FUTURES TRADERS GUIDE TO THE WASDE Your Guide To Understanding The USDA World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates For Corn, Soybeans And Wheat By Craig & Drew Daniels 1.800.800.3840 What Is The WASDE?

More information

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015

First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 20 February 2015 First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 20 February 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning

More information

Iowa Farm Outlook. New Data Indicates Lower Retail Meat Prices

Iowa Farm Outlook. New Data Indicates Lower Retail Meat Prices Iowa Farm Outlook November 1, 2002 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1849 New Data Indicates Lower Retail Meat Prices As part of the Mandatory Price Reporting legislation in 1999 Congress directed USDA to develop

More information

Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results

Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results September 2010 Crop Insurance: Background Statistics on Participation and Results FAPRI MU Report #10 10 Providing objective analysis for more than 25 years www.fapri.missouri.edu This report was prepared

More information

Balance sheet: A detailed presentation of supply, usage and stocks for a specific commodity and for a specific period of time, typically one year.

Balance sheet: A detailed presentation of supply, usage and stocks for a specific commodity and for a specific period of time, typically one year. Section I Introduction to Futures and Options Markets Chapter 4: Market information Learning objectives USDA, WASDE and other important reports farmdocdaily, AgManager, and Ag Decision Maker Barchart.com

More information

Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 21 August 2015

Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. 21 August 2015 Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call 21 August 2015 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures The earnings call and accompanying material include forward-looking comments and information concerning the

More information

USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports, June 30, University of Tennessee Extension Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower

USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports, June 30, University of Tennessee Extension Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower Market Reaction USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports, June 30, 2015 University of Tennessee Extension Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower On Tuesday June 30 th the USDA surprised the market releasing

More information

DAILY FINANCIAL & COMMODITY MARKET NEWS

DAILY FINANCIAL & COMMODITY MARKET NEWS DAILY FINANCIAL & COMMODITY MARKET NEWS FOR NEWSLETTERS, PUBLICATIONS, WEB SITES, SCRIPTS Writing daily market summaries is hard. It is exacting and time-consuming. Accuracy has to be 100%. Dozens, or

More information

What Do USDA s March Prospec(ve Plan(ngs & Grain Stocks Reports Mean for 2015 Outlook?

What Do USDA s March Prospec(ve Plan(ngs & Grain Stocks Reports Mean for 2015 Outlook? What Do USDA s March Prospec(ve Plan(ngs & Grain Stocks Reports Mean for 2015 Outlook? Chris Hurt, Professor & Extension Ag. Economist Corinne Alexander, Professor & Extension Ag. Economist James Mintert,

More information

We have seen in the How

We have seen in the How : Examples Using Hedging, Forward Contracting, Crop Insurance, and Revenue Insurance To what extent can hedging, forward contracting, and crop and revenue insurance reduce uncertainty within the year (intrayear)

More information

Chapter Five: Risk Management and Commodity Markets

Chapter Five: Risk Management and Commodity Markets Chapter Five: Risk Management and Commodity Markets All business firms face risk; agricultural businesses more than most. Temperature and precipitation are largely beyond anyone s control, yet these factors

More information

High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) in the U.S. Caloric Sweetener Supply

High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) in the U.S. Caloric Sweetener Supply High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) in the U.S. Caloric Sweetener Supply June 2011 Ross Korves Economic Policy Analyst Prepared for the Corn Refiners Association High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) in the U.S.

More information

KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes

KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes Daniel O Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, September 30, 2016 I. Grain Futures Closes,

More information

CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1

CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1 Presented at the 1997 Missouri Commercial Agriculture Crop Institute CROP REVENUE COVERAGE INSURANCE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT WHEAT ALTERNATIVES 1 Presented by: Art Barnaby Managing Risk With

More information

A BULLISH CASE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 2016

A BULLISH CASE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 2016 A BULLISH CASE FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN 2016 Probabilities for higher prices, and the factors that could spur price rallies. Commodity markets tend to move on three variables: perception, momentum and

More information

Institute of Ag Professionals

Institute of Ag Professionals Institute of Ag Professionals Proceedings of the 2014 Crop Pest Management Shortcourse & Minnesota Crop Production Retailers Association Trade Show www.extension.umn.edu/agprofessionals Do not reproduce

More information

A Summary of the USDA s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Report

A Summary of the USDA s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Report A Summary of the USDA s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Report March 31, Aaron Smith and Chuck Danehower Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics University of Tennessee Extension A Summary

More information

July 2010. Chart 1: World Edible Oil Production

July 2010. Chart 1: World Edible Oil Production Agricultural Products An Overview of the Edible Oil Markets: Crude Palm Oil vs Soybean Oil July 2010 Edible vegetable oils are some of the most crucial cooking ingredients in the world. In addition, edible

More information

Implications for US Corn Availability under a Higher Blending Rate for Ethanol: How Much Corn Will Be Needed?

Implications for US Corn Availability under a Higher Blending Rate for Ethanol: How Much Corn Will Be Needed? Implications for US Corn Availability under a Higher Blending Rate for Ethanol: How Much Corn Will Be Needed? Summary Increasing the amount of biofuel that can be blended into gasoline will contribute

More information

October 1, 2015. Contents. 1. Recap. 2. Physical Market Rates. 3. Arrivals. 4. Weather. 5. Charts and Outlook. 6. Disclaimer

October 1, 2015. Contents. 1. Recap. 2. Physical Market Rates. 3. Arrivals. 4. Weather. 5. Charts and Outlook. 6. Disclaimer Contents 1. Recap 2. Physical Market Rates 3. Arrivals 4. Weather 5. Charts and Outlook 6. Disclaimer 1 Recap Indian markets NCDEX Net % Vol. OI Previous Close Open High Low % Volume OI Soybean OCT5 3450

More information

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012

Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 Market Monitor Number 3 November 2012 AMIS Crops: World Supply-Demand Balances in 2012/13 World supply and demand situation continues to tighten for wheat and maize but rice and soybeans have eased. In

More information

Five Steps in Developing a Successful Marketing Plan

Five Steps in Developing a Successful Marketing Plan Five Steps in Developing a Successful Marketing Plan David Reinbott Agriculture Business Specialist P.O. Box 187 Benton, MO 63736 (573) 545-3516 http://extension.missouri.edu/scott reinbottd@missouri.edu

More information

Missouri Soybean Economic Impact Report

Missouri Soybean Economic Impact Report Missouri Soybean Economic Report State Analysis March 2014 The following soybean economic impact values were estimated by Value Ag, LLC, as part of a Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council funded project.

More information

Group Risk Income Protection Plan and Group Risk Plans added in New Kansas Counties for 2005 1 Updated 3/12/05

Group Risk Income Protection Plan and Group Risk Plans added in New Kansas Counties for 2005 1 Updated 3/12/05 Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial

More information

CORN IS GROWN ON MORE ACRES OF IOWA LAND THAN ANY OTHER CROP.

CORN IS GROWN ON MORE ACRES OF IOWA LAND THAN ANY OTHER CROP. CORN IS GROWN ON MORE ACRES OF IOWA LAND THAN ANY OTHER CROP. Planted acreage reached a high in 1981 with 14.4 million acres planted for all purposes and has hovered near 12.5 million acres since the early

More information

Usual Planting and Harvesting Dates for U.S. Field Crops

Usual Planting and Harvesting Dates for U.S. Field Crops United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service Agricultural Handbook Number 628 Usual Planting and Harvesting Dates for U.S. Field s Introduction Usual planting and harvesting

More information

Iowa Farm Outlook. November 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Pasture and Range Conditions and Prices: A Year in Review

Iowa Farm Outlook. November 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Pasture and Range Conditions and Prices: A Year in Review Iowa Farm Outlook 0BDepartment of Economics November 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2079 Pasture and Range Conditions and Prices: A Year in Review This year the U.S. has enjoyed favorable pasture and range

More information

Chesapeake Maryland Farm J. Hewlett and J. Parsons

Chesapeake Maryland Farm J. Hewlett and J. Parsons How Much Risk Is Right For You? Scenario Guide (December, 2013 #SG-11-09) Chesapeake Maryland Farm J. Hewlett and J. Parsons The Chesapeake Maryland Farm is representative of many of the corn/soybean/wheat

More information

CBOT Soybean Crush. Reference Guide

CBOT Soybean Crush. Reference Guide CBOT Soybean Crush Reference Guide Introduction In the soybean industry, the term crush refers both to a physical process as well as a value calculation. The physical crush is the process of converting

More information

Situation and Outlook Yearbook. Crop insurance premium subsidies for wheat. Average subsidy rate. 1990/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 2000/01 Crop year

Situation and Outlook Yearbook. Crop insurance premium subsidies for wheat. Average subsidy rate. 1990/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 2000/01 Crop year United States Department of Agriculture ERS Economic Research Service WHS-2001 March 2001 Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook Crop insurance premium subsidies for wheat $mil. subsidy % rate subsidy 250

More information

By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn

By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn www.lefflercom.com Friday, April 29, 2016 By Tom Leffler and Larry Glenn TODAY S THOUGHT Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going IMPORTANT SURVEY: Let Larry or I know if you

More information

In 2010, many farmers will again choose between farm

In 2010, many farmers will again choose between farm 2010 The New ACRE Program: Costs and Effects By Brian C. Briggeman, Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Jody Campiche, Assistant Professor, Oklahoma State University In 2010, many farmers

More information

Lower Rates Mean Lower Crop Insurance Cost 1

Lower Rates Mean Lower Crop Insurance Cost 1 Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial

More information

Vegetable Oil Outlook

Vegetable Oil Outlook Vegetable Oil Outlook Presented In Partnership With: Golden Brands, LLC April 2011 Beeson & Associates, Inc www.beesoninc.com (502) 648-1194 Jan-90 Oct-91 Jul-93 Apr-95 Jan-97 Oct-98 Jul-00 Apr-02 Jan-04

More information

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast

Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 11.5 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 7 bushels per acre or an

More information

Tennessee Agricultural Production and Rural Infrastructure

Tennessee Agricultural Production and Rural Infrastructure Tennessee Trends in Agricultural Production and Infrastructure Highlights - In many states the percentage of the state population designated by the U.S. Census Bureau as living in rural areas has declined,

More information

Mint. Report THE. and Highlighted Industry Trends 2013.

Mint. Report THE. and Highlighted Industry Trends 2013. Mint THE Report and Highlighted Industry Trends 213 www.lebermuth.com For over 1 years, The Lebermuth Company has worked directly with farmers at the source to supply the highest quality essential oils

More information

US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update

US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney Volume XVI, Issue 24 June 29, 2016 Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group SteinerConsulting.com 800-526-4612

More information

1. Prices now 2. TA APH yield endorsement 3. Re-rating 4. Suggestions

1. Prices now 2. TA APH yield endorsement 3. Re-rating 4. Suggestions Crop Insurance Update Gary Schnitkey University of Illinois Topics 1. Prices now 2. TA APH yield endorsement 3. Re-rating 4. Suggestions 2 1 Combo Product and Old Products Type COMBO Product Old Product

More information

Multiple Peril Crop Insurance

Multiple Peril Crop Insurance Multiple Peril Crop Insurance Multiple Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) is a broadbased crop insurance program regulated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and subsidized by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation

More information

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk

Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Investment Research General Market Conditions 20 May 2015 Research Commodities El Niño returns grains and soft commodities at risk Meteorologists now agree that El Niño has arrived and project that it

More information

MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options

MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options MGEX Agricultural Index Futures and Options 07 Crop Outlook and Int l Durum Forum Minot, ND 1 Thank you very much for having me here. I would like to acquaint you with a new set of risk management tools.

More information

Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

Purdue Agricultural Economics Report Purdue Agricultural Economics Report August 2013 Up Again: Indiana s Farmland Market in 2013 Craig Dobbins, Professor and Kim Cook, Research Associate While the 2012 Indiana crop suffered from the worst

More information

Rick Alexander 312-277-0107 ralexander@zaner.com312-277-0107

Rick Alexander 312-277-0107 ralexander@zaner.com312-277-0107 ick Alexander ARE THE WHEAT AND SOYBEAN COMPLEX ALONG WITH CORN POSSIBLY BOTTOMING? Posted on 2/18/2015 6:24:43 AM WE HAVE A VERY GOOD HEDGING DEPARTMENT HEADED BY TED SEIFRIED. WHY NOT TALK TO HIM OR

More information

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs

3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs 3.3 Real Returns Above Variable Costs Several factors can impact the returns above variable costs for crop producers. Over a long period of time, sustained increases in the growth rate for purchased inputs

More information

Principles of Hedging with Futures

Principles of Hedging with Futures MARKETING & UTILIZATION Cooperative Extension Service Purdue University West Lafayette, IN 47907 NCH-47 Principles of Hedging with Futures Chris Hurt, Purdue University Robert N. Wisner, Iowa State University

More information

Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University

Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University Estimated Crush Margins for Hog Producers, 2006-2015 Lee Schulz 1 Iowa State University Buying weaned pigs, corn, and soybean meal and selling hogs at discrete times throughout the year exposes wean to

More information

LIVESTOCK GROSS MARGIN FOR DAIRY CATTLE INSURANCE POLICY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS

LIVESTOCK GROSS MARGIN FOR DAIRY CATTLE INSURANCE POLICY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS LIVESTOCK GROSS MARGIN FOR DAIRY CATTLE INSURANCE POLICY QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS 1. Q: What is the Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Cattle Insurance Policy? A: The Livestock Gross Margin for Dairy Cattle

More information

Global Agriculture Markets: Today and

Global Agriculture Markets: Today and Global Agriculture Markets: Today and Tomorrow AgriEvolution Summit New Delhi, India JB Penn Chief Economist December 5, 2013 1 bal Agriculture Markets: Today and Tomorrow Brief Historic Review (2000-2013)

More information

World Production, Consumption, and Prices 2009/10 through 2014/15 projection

World Production, Consumption, and Prices 2009/10 through 2014/15 projection Agricultural Outlook Forum 2014 Presented Friday, February 21, 2014 THE WORLD AND UNITED STATES COTTON OUTLOOK James Johnson, Stephen MacDonald, Leslie Meyer, Bryan Norrington, and Carol Skelly U.S. Department

More information

Rain on Planting Protection. Help Guide

Rain on Planting Protection. Help Guide Rain on Planting Protection Help Guide overview Rain on Planting Protection allows growers to protect themselves from losses if rain prevents planting from being completed on schedule. Coverage is highly

More information

CBOT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

CBOT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS CBOT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Business Development 141 W. Jackson Boulevard Chicago, IL 60604-2994 312-341-7955 fax: 312-341-3027 New York Office One Exchange Plaza 55 Broadway, Suite 2602 New York, NY 10006

More information

Iowa Farm Outlook. Department of Economics January 2013 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2033

Iowa Farm Outlook. Department of Economics January 2013 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2033 Iowa Farm Outlook Department of Economics January 2013 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2033 December Hogs and Pigs Report USDA released the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report December 28 with estimates of December

More information

CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS July 22, 2014

CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS July 22, 2014 CANADA: OUTLOOK FOR PRINCIPAL FIELD CROPS July 22, 2014 Market Analysis Group/Grains and Oilseeds Division Sector Development and Analysis Directorate/Market and Industry Services Branch Director: Steve

More information

Grain elevators play a crucial role in agricultural commodity markets through the marketing, storage, and

Grain elevators play a crucial role in agricultural commodity markets through the marketing, storage, and 2008 Can Grain Elevators Survive Record Crop Prices? By Jason Henderson, Assistant Vice President and Omaha Branch Executive and Nancy Fitzgerald, Policy Economist, Banking Studies and Structure R ecord

More information

Nivesh Commodity. Daily Change & Technical levels. Comex Division. 6 th October, Bullions (Spot) Last close % change

Nivesh Commodity. Daily Change & Technical levels. Comex Division. 6 th October, Bullions (Spot) Last close % change Nivesh Commodity 6 th October, 2016 Daily Change & Technical levels Base Metal Inventory Scrip Inventory Change Copper 365050-3475 Nickel 360558-906 Lead 190775 375 Zinc 452875 5325 Alumni 2141875-6400

More information

CropCast Daily Agri-Highlights Don Keeney Wednesday, June 22, 2016

CropCast Daily Agri-Highlights Don Keeney Wednesday, June 22, 2016 VHI Image Date: Jun 17, 2016 USA Corn Soybeans Vegetative Health Index Map and Crop Condition Tendency EUROPE Rapeseed BLACK SEA INDIA Soybeans Groundnuts CHINA Corn Soybeans ARGENTINA Corn Soybeans BRAZIL

More information

3.7 Implied Labor Hours

3.7 Implied Labor Hours 3.7 Implied Labor Hours USDA data for the period 1990 through 2011 is presented to describe the implied amount of labor that is used to produce an acre and unit of output (e.g., labor hours per bushel

More information

DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY 08/17/16

DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY 08/17/16 Wednesday August 17, 2016 150 S. Wacker Dr., Suite 2350 Chicago, IL 60606 800-621-1414 or 312-277-0102 info@zaner.com www.zaner.com DAILY SOY COMPLEX COMMENTARY Surge in soyoil and oversold grains may

More information

Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.)

Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) Updated 12/21/215 Historic Est. Prelim. Proj. 216-17 Year: (production/marketing) 1/ 211-12 212-13 213-14 214-15 215-16 Low Med. 4 High Yield (bu.

More information

CATTLE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

CATTLE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK CATTLE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK John D. Lawrence and Shane Ellis Extension Livestock Economists Iowa State University. Ames, IA Introduction The US beef market has survived a roller coaster ride in

More information

-75- MULTIPLE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES IN THE EVALUATION OF WEATHER AND TECHNOLOGY IN CROP PRODUCTION. Louis M. Thompson1

-75- MULTIPLE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES IN THE EVALUATION OF WEATHER AND TECHNOLOGY IN CROP PRODUCTION. Louis M. Thompson1 -75- MULTIPLE REGRESSION TECHNIQUES IN THE EVALUATION OF WEATHER AND TECHNOLOGY IN CROP PRODUCTION Louis M. Thompson1 The yield per acre of the major grain crops in the central area of the United States

More information

Buy the More Expensive Revenue Protection and Sell off Part of the Coverage 1

Buy the More Expensive Revenue Protection and Sell off Part of the Coverage 1 Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial

More information

North Dakota Agricultural Production and Rural Infrastructure

North Dakota Agricultural Production and Rural Infrastructure North Dakota Trends in Agricultural Production and Infrastructure Highlights - With no navigable waterways, North Dakota is heavily reliant on rail movements of its grain production. Did you know? Production

More information

Grain Marketing 101. University of Maryland Extension

Grain Marketing 101. University of Maryland Extension Grain Marketing 101 Jenny Rhodes Shannon Dill John Hall Extension Educators, Agriculture & Natural Resources Marketing terminology CBOT futures Basis Contracts Forward Contract Hedge to Arrive Basis Contract

More information

Iowa Farm Outlook. December 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Glean More Information from Cattle Market Reports

Iowa Farm Outlook. December 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Glean More Information from Cattle Market Reports Iowa Farm Outlook 0BDepartment of Economics December 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2080 Glean More Information from Cattle Market Reports When discussing fed cattle prices, we all have our traditional benchmarks.

More information

NORTHERN AGRICULTURE AFTER THE CIVIL WAR ECON 4524

NORTHERN AGRICULTURE AFTER THE CIVIL WAR ECON 4524 NORTHERN AGRICULTURE AFTER THE CIVIL WAR ECON 4524 Northern Agriculture after the Civil War 1869 1914 Wheat 290 million bushels 897 Corn 782 million bushels 2524 Oats 284 million bushels 1066 Cotton 2.5

More information

Staff Report on Cotton Futures and Option Market Activity During the Week of March 3, 2008

Staff Report on Cotton Futures and Option Market Activity During the Week of March 3, 2008 Staff Report on Cotton Futures and Option Market Activity During the Week of March 3, 2008 Commodity Futures Trading Commission 1155 21 st Street, NW Washington, DC 20581 January 4, 2010 Table of Contents

More information

Merchandising and Inventory Management of Commodities: Carrying Charges and Basis

Merchandising and Inventory Management of Commodities: Carrying Charges and Basis Merchandising and Inventory Management of Commodities: Carrying Charges and Basis Raleigh B. Wilson Several months ago when I was asked to prepare a program related to the cash activity of the grain industry,

More information

Implications of Crop Insurance as Social Policy

Implications of Crop Insurance as Social Policy Implications of Crop Insurance as Social Policy Bruce Babcock Iowa State University Presented at the Minnesota Crop Insurance Conference Sept 10, 2014 Mankato, MN Summary of talk 2014 farm bill irrevocably

More information

THE UNDAMENTALS AND ECHNIQUES RADING OMMODITY PREADS. c s

THE UNDAMENTALS AND ECHNIQUES RADING OMMODITY PREADS. c s c s THE UNDAMENTALS AND ECHNIQUES OF RADING OMMODITY PREADS The purpose of this booklet is to give you a better understanding of various aspects of spread trading in the futures market. Center for Futures

More information

Economic Effects of the Sugar Program Since the 2008 Farm Bill & Policy Implications for the 2013 Farm Bill

Economic Effects of the Sugar Program Since the 2008 Farm Bill & Policy Implications for the 2013 Farm Bill Economic Effects of the Sugar Program Since the 2008 Farm Bill & Policy Implications for the 2013 Farm Bill June 3, 2013 Overview Changes to the sugar program in the 2008 farm bill made a bad program even

More information

Yield Protection Crop Insurance will have the same Yield Coverage as Revenue Protection, but RP is Expected to be the Preferred Choice (Updated) 1

Yield Protection Crop Insurance will have the same Yield Coverage as Revenue Protection, but RP is Expected to be the Preferred Choice (Updated) 1 Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial

More information

Understanding and Using Basis - Grains

Understanding and Using Basis - Grains Understanding and Using Basis - Grains By: E. Dean Baldwin Reviewers: John Ferris and David Holder Edited by Duane Griffith and Stephen Koontz 1 Basis is defined as the amount in cents per bushel a specified

More information

How Large is the 2012 Crop Insurance Underwriting Loss? 1

How Large is the 2012 Crop Insurance Underwriting Loss? 1 Disclaimer: This web page is designed to aid farmers with their marketing and risk management decisions. The risk of loss in trading futures, options, forward contracts, and hedge-to-arrive can be substantial

More information

Common Crop Insurance Policy (CCIP) DR. G. A. ART BARNABY, JR. Kansas State University 4B Agricultural Consultants

Common Crop Insurance Policy (CCIP) DR. G. A. ART BARNABY, JR. Kansas State University 4B Agricultural Consultants Common Crop Insurance Policy (CCIP) DR. G. A. ART BARNABY, JR. Kansas State University 4B Agricultural Consultants Phone: 785-532-1515 EMAIL: barnaby@ksu.edu Check out our WEB page at http://www.agmanager.info

More information

Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry

Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry Supply & demand outlook for the canola industry J.P. Gervais Chief Ag Economist March 2015 @jpgervais Canola Canola is one component of the environment for oil producing crops Growth in demand has supported

More information

General Information Series

General Information Series General Information Series 1 Agricultural Futures for the Beginner Describes various applications of futures contracts for those new to futures markets. Different trading examples for hedgers and speculators

More information

All Approved Insurance Providers All Risk Management Agency Field Offices All Other Interested Parties

All Approved Insurance Providers All Risk Management Agency Field Offices All Other Interested Parties United States Department of Agriculture Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services Risk Management Agency Beacon Facility Mail Stop 0801 P.O. Box 419205 Kansas City, MO 64141-6205 March 3, 2014 INFORMATIONAL

More information

Boom and Bust in the 90s: The Story as Told by Corn

Boom and Bust in the 90s: The Story as Told by Corn Boom and Bust in the 90s: The Story as Told by Corn By Stanley C. Stevens, Ph.D. Introduction In the fall of 1994, China announced that it was withdrawing from the corn export market. This marked the beginning

More information

Basis The Cash Futures Relationship

Basis The Cash Futures Relationship Agricultural Commodity Marketing: Futures, Options, Insurance Basis The Cash Futures Relationship By: Dillon M. Feuz Utah State University Funding and Support Provided by: Fact Sheets Knowing and Managing

More information

DDST~ UCT CQ~ RI~ONTHLY ~TATI~TICAL ~ F~D~ AL F~SE~VE ~AN K QF

DDST~ UCT CQ~ RI~ONTHLY ~TATI~TICAL ~ F~D~ AL F~SE~VE ~AN K QF N~:Th DDST~ UCT CQ~ RI~ONTHLY ~TATI~TICAL ~ F~D~ AL F~SE~VE ~AN K QF DISTRICT DEFENSE SPENDING CONTINUES TO RISE Business conditions in the Ninth Federal Reserve District remained at high levels in the

More information