Agri Commodities ABN AMRO Bank NV
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1 Agri Commodities ABN AMRO Bank NV Fausto Caron Head of Commodities Brazil Chicago, June
2 Agenda Brazilian Agriculture A Historical Perspective Infra-Structure: The Brazilian quest for competitiveness The Brazilian Tranportation Matrix Logistics Bottlenecks Investments changing the landscape Brazil: How Brazilian production can influence world prices? 2
3 1 Brazilian Agriculture 3
4 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective RR AP AM PA MA CE RN AC RO MT TO PI BA PE PB AL SE DF GO MS SP PR PR SC MG RJ ES RS 4
5 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective Sugar and Coffee Cycles RR AP AM PA MA CE RN AC RO MT TO PI PB NE/SE PE Region AL 1550/1750 s SE Sugarcane BA DF GO MS SP PR PR SC MG RJ ES RS 5
6 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective Sugar and Coffee Cycles RR AP AM PA MA CE RN AC RO MT TO PI PB NE/SE PE Region AL 1550/1750 s SE Sugarcane BA DF 1 GO MS PR PR SC SE Region MG 1800/1900 s Coffee SP Sugarcane RJ ES RS 6
7 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective Sugar and Coffee Cycles RR AP Urbanization led to exploration of new regions AM PA MA CE RN AC RO MT TO PI PB NE/SE PE Region AL 1550/1750 s SE Sugarcane BA DF 1 GO MS PR S Region PR 1900 s SC Grains & Oilseeds RS SE Region MG 1800/1900 s Coffee SP Sugarcane 2 RJ ES 7
8 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective Sugar and Coffee Cycles RR AP Urbanization led to exploration of new regions AM PA MA CE RN March to the West: occupying the territory AC RO MT MW Region 1970 s Grains GO & Oilseeds MS 3 PR S Region PR 1900 s SC Grains & Oilseeds RS TO DF SE Region MG 1800/1900 s Coffee SP Sugarcane 2 PI PB NE/SE PE Region AL 1550/1750 s SE Sugarcane BA 1 ES RJ 8
9 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective RR AP AM AC RO 9
10 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective Sugar and Coffee Cycles RR AP Urbanization led to exploration of new regions AM PA MA CE RN March to the West: occupying the territory AC RO MT MW Region 1970 s Grains GO & Oilseeds MS 3 PR S Region PR 1900 s SC Grains & Oilseeds RS TO DF SE Region MG 1800/1900 s Coffee SP Sugarcane 2 PI PB NE/SE PE Region AL 1550/1750 s SE Sugarcane BA 1 ES RJ 10
11 Brazilian Agriculture - A Historical Perspective Sugar and Coffee Cycles RR AP Urbanization led to exploration of new regions March to the West: occupying the territory Professional Farming AC AM RO MT MS PA MW Region 1970 s Grains GO & Oilseeds 3 4 PR S Region PR 1900 s SC Grains & Oilseeds RS MAPITO Region MA 2000 s Grains Cotton TO DF SE Region MG 1800/1900 s Coffee SP Sugarcane 2 CE RN PI PB NE/SE PE Region AL 1550/1750 s SE Sugarcane BA 1 ES RJ 11
12 Embrapa and the Brazilian Green Revolution - Adapted cultivars to the Brazilian tropical climate (e.g. soy) - Research allowed agriculture in weak soils (Brazilian Savanna Cerrado ) - No-till farming - Very successful experiences in controlling plagues and diseases Yields (1976 = 100) / / / / / / / /12 Soybean Corn Wheat 12
13 Brazil rises as a global player in the Agricultural arena Very competitive producer! 5 Tobacco Sugar Corn 3 3 Coffe 1 1 Soybeans 2 21 Extremely inefficient bringing its production to the market! Cotton 4 5 Orange 1 1 Production Exports 13
14 2 Infra-Structure: The quest for competitiveness 14
15 Brazilian Transportation Matrix Brazilian Transportation Matrix 3.80% 0.10% Overdependence on road transport (only 15% paved) 11.70% 21.70% 62.70% Highway Railway Waterway Pipeline Airway Source: ILOS, 2010 Soy Exports Transportation in US Soy Exports Transportation in Brazil 5% High Cost (15% of Brazilian GDP) and slow transit time 22% 12% 66% 67% 28% Railroad Road Waterw ay Source USDA Railroad Road Waterw ay 15
16 Logistics Bottlenecks: Railway System - State controlled since 1957 (focused on few sectors: iron ore, fuel, cement) - Lack of market orientation and planning (subsidized by the state) - Economic shocks in the 70/80 s led to lack of investments until Privatization possible only in the 90 s after economic stabilization - Very low railway density / Low Competition 16
17 Logistics Bottlenecks: Waterways / Ports km of coast with 76 ports (34 public ports) Main Ports - Few (4) inefficient public ports handling the bulk of Brazil s agri exports (> 85%) - Insufficient warehousing capacity congesting the ports at harvest season - Old and confusing legal framework finally addressed 17
18 Logistics Bottlenecks: Costs loads of money! 18
19 Logistics Bottlenecks: Costs loads of money! 19
20 Investments until 2020: Investments changing the landscape Vila do Conde Itaquatiara Santarem Itaqui Port Pecem Port Manaus São Luis Carajás Humaitá Suape Port Rio Branco Porto Velho Palmas Aracaju Ilheus Cuiabá Belo Horizonte Tubarão Port Rio de Janeiro Santos Port Paranaguá Port São Francisco do Sul Port Rio Grande 20
21 Investments until 2020: Investments changing the landscape Vila do Conde - Pavement of existing roads Itaquatiara Santarem Itaqui Port Pecem Port Manaus São Luis Carajás Humaitá BR 163 Suape Port Rio Branco Porto Velho BR 158 Palmas Aracaju Ilheus Cuiabá Belo Horizonte Tubarão Port Rio de Janeiro Santos Port Paranaguá Port São Francisco do Sul Port Rio Grande 21
22 Investments until 2020: Investments changing the landscape Vila do Conde - Pavement of existing roads Itaquatiara Santarem Itaqui Port Pecem Port Manaus São Luis - New Railways totaling 11,000 km until 2020; Rio Branco Humaitá Porto Velho BR 163 BR 158 Palmas Aracaju Suape Port Ilheus Cuiabá Belo Horizonte Tubarão Port Rio de Janeiro Santos Port Paranaguá Port São Francisco do Sul Port Rio Grande 22
23 Investments until 2020: Investments changing the landscape Vila do Conde - Pavement of existing roads Manaus Itaquatiara Santarem Solimões Tapajós Itaqui Port São Luis Pecem Port - New Railways totaling 11,000 km until 2020; Rio Branco Humaitá Porto Velho Madeira BR 163 Carajás BR 158 Palmas Suape Port Aracaju - Waterways totaling km until 2020 Cuiabá FCA Belo EFVM Horizonte Ilheus Tubarão Port Rio de Janeiro Santos Port Paranaguá Port São Francisco do Sul Port Rio Grande 23
24 3 Brazilian Production and World Food Prices 24
25 Demand: The Club of Rome was right - World population expected to grow to 9 bln people - Urbanization / increase in wealth - Change in dietary habits - Sustainable / renewable energy In 2050 it is expected that world food demand will be twice current demand 25
26 Brazilian supply can definitively grow! - Land - Sun Hours - Water - Pioneering Spirit - Scale - Agronomical Research - Stable Economic Policies - Sustainable Practices Brazil USA Russia EU India China Canada Argentina Available Occupied Source: FAO 26
27 Brazilian supply can definitively grow! Millions of hectares* Total Landmass Forest and Native Vegetation % 58% Arable Land % Others 15 2% Available 103 Pasture Land 30% % Crop Land Sugarcane 55 8,7 16% 2.6% Source: Cosan 27
28 Prices? - If food price was that expensive the World would not be wasting so much - Brazilian inefficiencies are already reflected in the Futures prices - Development of new areas requires attractive remuneration to producers - Improving the Brazilian infra-structure would allow substantial growth in the remuneration of Brazilian producers without increasing prices - Yields should continue improving in Brazil (faster than expansion to new areas) 28
29 Thank You! 29
30 Agri Commodities ABN AMRO Bank NV Fausto Caron Head of Commodities Brazil Chicago, June
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