How To Get Around The Polar Region

Transcription

1 Arctische Olie en Gas: Nut of Noodzaak? Lucia van Geuns Leiden, 16 Maart 2013 Frozen Planet On Thin Ice Attenborough visited both the Arctic and Antarctic in the making of the Frozen Planet. He witnessed not only the melting of Arctic sea ice, but the calving of icebergs from glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica which contributes to sea level rise. 1

2 Deze presentatie Introductie Duurzame energie veiligheid Arctische olie en gas Afsluitende opmerkingen The Arctic: some facts The Arctic ocean: 14 million km² max. depth 5160 m No circum-arctic treaty system other than the UN International Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) No country has the jurisdiction over the Arctic Ocean 2

3 Under current international law, the countries ringing the Arctic - Russia, Canada, the U.S., Norway, and Denmark (which owns Greenland) - are limited to a 200-mile economic zone around their coasts. Arctic sea ice set to hit record low within days Aug 2012 Arctic sea ice may have passed crucial tipping point.. The ice will bounce back once winter sets in, but the record lows are telling indicators that climate change is radically transforming the Arctic Source: 3

4 Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt July 2012 July 8: ~ 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface July 12: the melting dramatically accelerated and ~ 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed July 8 July 12 Melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average with the last one happening in If we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome." Northwest passage Canada claims the route to be national waters, while the United States and the European Union demand free passage (Graphic: NASA) 4

5 De energie markt Afhankelijk van fossiele brandstoffen Toenemende mondiale vraag Reserves geconcentreerd Emissies broeikasgassen hoog Transport sector bijna volledig afhankelijk van olie en groeiende! Ontwikkeling van de energie vraag Global Demand By Fuel Percent Bron: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil 20 Coal Biomass 5

6 Twee werelden OESO energie vraag Quadrillion BTUs 500 Niet OESO energie vraag Quadrillion BTUs Rest of Non OECD Russia/Caspian Africa Middle East 200 Rest of OECD 200 Latin America Europe OECD India 100 North America 100 China Source: Exxon, 2012 Toenemende vraag naar energie Beinvloed door bevolkingsgroei en economische groei Billion 9 World Population Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil 6

7 Mtoe Energie oplossingen Meer efficiency Technologie Minder CO2 uitstoot Meer aanbod Bron: Exxon Mobil 2008 Wereld Energievraag Bron: Referentie scenario IEA World Energy Outlook, Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Coal Oil De wereld energievraag groeit met meer dan 40% in de volgende 25 jaar, het absoluut verbruik van kolen en gas groeit het hardst 7

8 Remaining Oil Resource 2010 Conventional Crude and Condensate + Oil Sands (BBO) ~325 ~400 ~100 ~825 Russia/Caspian North America Europe ~10 Middle East ~75 ~125 ~150 Latin America ~50 Africa ~125 Asia Pacific ~1,050 ~1,100 Oil Sands Non-OPEC OPEC Includes Undiscovered and Future Growth Resource Sources: USGS, Oil & Gas Journal, PIRA, IEA, Exxon Mobil, 2010 Beperkte toegang tot oliereserves voor Access to Oil Reserves buitenlandse directe investeringen Concession 21% Production sharing 12% Iraq 10% 1,032 billion barrels Bron: IEA, World investment outlook 2003 Limited access - National companies 22% National companies only (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Mexico) 35% Private partijen hebben tot meer dan de helft van de resterende oliereserves geen toegang Access Clingendael to much International of the world s Energy remaining Programme oil reserves is restricted 8

9 IOCs: Zoeken naar alternatieven Source: IEA, Shell Onzekerheden t.a.v. voorzieningszekerheid Meer import uit politiek en economisch instabiele producerende landen Concurrentie met andere consumerende landen Knelpunten in handelsroutes Beperkte binnenlandse produktie van duurzame energie bemoeilijkt diversificatie naar alternatieve brandstoffen Beperkingen aan energie beleidsinstrumenten 9

10 Wereld gas voorkomens Wereld: ~175 jaar reserves voor huidig gebruik Grote unconventionele gas voorkomens Europe North America* 1000 TCF 20 Unconventioneel gas Middle East Russia/ Caspian Africa Asia Pacific 5 Conventioneel gas Latin America 0 Wereld Bronnen: EIA, USGS, NPC, Exxon Mobil, 2010; exclusief al geproduceerd gas Arctic Oil and Gas Resources Recent publications: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP): Arctic Oil and Gas 2007 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA)/US Geological Survey study

11 The Arctic: The last great, almost unexplored, frontier area on the planet CARA/USGS 2009 appraisal: 530 Billion bbl of oil equivalent undiscovered resources (North of the Artic Circle; no hydrates, no bitumen, no oil shales) > 5% world oil reserves; > 20% known gas reserves in the Arctic; 25% undiscovered oil & gas Plans for new pipelines and development are underway: Russia: growing activity Timan-Pechora, W. Siberia provinces and the Kara and Barents seas Canada: Mackenzie Valley pipeline construction development Mackenzie Delta and Beaufort Sea Alaska: gas pipeline from North Slope; expansion offshore oil activity Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands, Arctic Russia exploration etc 11

12 Arctic Oil and Gas production Current Arctic production (AMAP area) ~10% world s oil ~25% of world s gas Most from the Russian Arctic! Oil/Gas production Areas in the Arctic, AMAP 2007, Pipelines + Production areas AMAP,

13 Offshore arctic basins and exploration hotspots Arctic Conflics? 95% of Arctic mineral resources are within agreed national boundaries biggest of territorial disputes is between US and Canada (N-W passage)..the development of the Arctic is likely to be uncommonly harmonious.. 1.Profit motive 2.High cost of operations 3.No excuse to intervene in the region s affair 13

14 Consequences of increasing temperature Melting of the sea-ice; unpredictable sea-ice situation Shifting of the seasons Instable, unpredictable weather Thawing of offshore permafrost makes ocean floor instable Subsidence causes risks for leaking of pipelines Damage to the vulnerable ecosystems Source: L. Hacquebord, Arctic Centre, 2012 Concluding Remarks The Arctic will stay an extreme and harsh environment for mineral exploitation Offshore oil and gas exploration and production will have impact on the pristine Arctic ecosystems Arctic oil and gas ventures will have influence on indigenous communities living along the coast In case of disasters there is no infrastructure and cleaning up system; no search and rescue system Source: L. Hacquebord, Arctic Centre,

15 The Arctic: robust risk management essential! Potential rewards comes with huge technical (climate, remoteness) and commercial challenges (costs, reputation) Operations under the highest-possible standards to protect the vulnerable environment Remoteness means mobilisation of logistics and services across long distances Explorers need to contract two rigs to ensure back up for relief wells in an emergency Investment in science and research (governments, companies) is essential to close knowledge gaps, reduce uncertainties and manage risks (ref. Lloyd s, 2012) Major geopolitical issues are unresolved across the Arctic Basin Access: issues of access and right of passage Seaward Claims: claims of seaward ownership etc Boundary Disputes: many boundary disputes still exist Venue: is the Law of the Sea the venue to resolve geopolitical issues; are other international frameworks required 15

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