Oil and Gas Prices. Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014
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1 Oil and Gas Prices Oil and Gas Investor Summit London 17th-18th June 2014
2 Oil Price Drowning in oil Economist, March 1999 $10 oil might actually be too optimistic. We may be heading for $5. Crude touches $100 Financial Times, January 2008 April 2009
3
4 Where We Work
5 E&P Capital Spend versus Oil Price Source: Barclays Capital
6 Oil Sales OPEC crude is sold term contracts Non-OPEC crude is sold spot Exceptions OPEC Middle East Gulf and OPEC West African crudes are often resold into the spot market Russia-China and some Druzhba (Russia to eastern Europe) flows are term contracts Some North Sea refinery contracts are term Many countries have domestic pricing or export taxes For today: oil price = ICE Brent Crude Oil
7 Oil Price Volatility Due to Expectations, Perceptions and News Flow Source: EIA
8 Economic Growth Has a Strong Impact on Oil Consumption Source: Citi Bank
9 Short Term Oil Price Drivers Statistical Analysis OPEC spare capacity: rising capacity leads to lower oil prices $ exchange rate: depreciating dollar leads to higher oil price OECD inventories: higher inventories leads to lower oil prices Refining margins in U.S.: higher margins leads higher oil prices Source: Citibank, 2011 Global GDP index: rising index leads to higher oil prices OECD stock levels: higher stocks lead to lower oil prices US and Canada oil production: higher production leads lower oil prices Source: Barclays, 2014
10 OPEC: Oil Price and Economic Growth Source: CIBC World Markets
11 OPEC Spare Capacity Source: Washington Post
12 OPEC Fiscal Cost Source: Middle East Economic Survey
13 Current Oil Price Drivers Demand Side Drivers Refineries turnarounds unwind Seasonal demand ( driving season ) Chinese imports high strategic reserve? OECD inventories low Concerns about China and India economic growth Supply Side Drivers Russia Ukraine Libya ports open, security Iraq south at record highs, but security issues in north, Kirkuk Sharply lower stocks in Cushing: Brent/WTI Iran - expectations for lifting sanctions reducing
14 Gas Markets and Pricing (24 Feb 2010) Source: Platts
15 Gas Contracts and Pricing
16 Gas Prices Still Regional Gas prices, $/MMBtu Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014
17 U.S. Gas Price Loosing Link to Oil Source: NASDAQ
18 General Potpourri Granting instrument price sensitivity: service contract <<< PSC << concession (tax and royalty) Oil IOC/NOC price assumptions: ExxonMobil: $109/bbl assumption (analyst meeting, March 2014) Chevron: $110/bbl assumption (security analyst meeting, March 2014) BP: $80/bbl benchmark (investor presentation, March 2014) Total: $100/bbl scenario (investor s day, September 2013) Petrobras: Brent $90-100/bbl (2030 Strategic Plan published in 2013) Oil price and the strength of the USD $ Gas Shale oil and gas limit exposure to short term price movements Oil indexed gas contracts as a hedge against oil price Gas price re-openers now rare Increasing gas-gas pricing like NBP (UK) and Henry Hub (US) Shale gas LNG priced against HH will challenge oil-linkage for Asia
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