Global Shale Energy Development: Expanding Economics, Trends, and Implications

Transcription

1 Global Shale Energy Development: Expanding Economics, Trends, and Implications

2 New and Historic Energy Direction with Shale Increasing share of U.S. natural gas production. 50%? 70%? (2040) Energy security Geopolitical Workforce E&P, manufacturing, and beyond Environmental benefits-power gen. GHG advantage over coal Strategic fit with renewables Balance of trade benefit LNG export Opportunity for technical innovation Research to mitigate environmental and commercial risk

3 Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research Research Down hole technical issues Above ground risk(s) Air emissions Community impacts Socio-economic Agriculture, tourism Environmental Water lifecycle impacts Workforce Business dev l Regulatory Governance

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5 Geopolitics Importance of energy increasing in global politics Russian/Ukraine dynamic Iran/Middle East less of focus? Increasing shale energy emphasis in EU nations 470 tcf estimated reserve (80% of U.S. estimates EIA) Collectively --Parliamentary directives Individually --Poland/UK U.S. LNG policy impact on Russian gas strategy Federal initiatives UGTEP program State Dept Four continents Partnerships with DOE, EPA, Interior Federal trade mission programs --USTDA

6 U.S. vs. International Different scale Availability of equipment, trained crews, etc. Gas transmission capacity Markets Demand potential Power generation switching (coal to gas and back) Mexico and Canada Industrial use/petrochemicals quick ramp up Ownership of minerals Technical data, i.e. seismic

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8 Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research Outreach Stakeholder engagement Elected officials NGOs Industry Regulators (training) Social License General Public 64% polled favor but A conversation about risk Translating the science Process Technologies Regulations Global experiences Current moment

9 Conveying Benefit vs. Risk What are the reasons for producing the energy Demand for all energy Economic rewards New commercial and industrial dev l --utilization Workforce opportunities Bridge to something else Fossil vs. renewables all the above strategy Geopolitical opportunity Energy security Balance of payments What are the risks Separating possible vs. probable risk with all energy dev l Wellbore integrity Water contamination Chemicals Methane Air emissions Health Gaps in research??

10 Unconventional Development in NE U.S.

11 Unconventional Gas Production in Pennsylvania

12 NE U.S. Production Changes Northeast U.S.is largest NG demand market in North America. Estimated increase to 34bcf/d by 2035* Several in Bcf/d group Will displace pipeline flow by 5.5+ bcf/d $4-5 for 5 years? Region will become net gas supplier to other regions of U.S. South Eastern Canada *Source: ICF International

13 Marcellus Production

14 PA Production Declines

15 Emerging Shale Targets

16 Marcellus Shale one of the largest shale gas reservoir in the world with an estimated 500 TCF of recoverable gas a 20-year supply for the entire US

17 Utica Shale

18 Utica Wet vs. Dry Gas

19 Regional Permitting Rigs Utica 43(OH) Marcellus 55(PA) Wells OH Utica 1092 PA Marcellus 8000+

20 Utica Production

21 Pipeline constraints Additional capacity Line reversal to NB/NS New political will? Record prices 1Q 14 Increasing NG demand Decreasing coal/oil/nuclear Hydro from Quebec LNG? Historical change Source: Range Resources

22 New Transmission Projects Western Marcellus Diamond East 2-3 bcf/d addition 450 miles of new pipe PennEast 1 bcf/d 100 miles Atlantic Coast 1-2 bcf/d 550 miles

23 Utica Midstream Build-out

24 NGL Gathering Capacity Demand

25 Larger/Permanent Investment

26 New Energy Dynamics with NGS Production vs. utilization Adding value to the commodity? Large energy consumers Industrial Power Domestic/Cross-border Transportation Petrochemicals/Fertilizer New industrial renaissance? reshoring of manufacturing Manufacturing costs 15% cheaper than Germany or France Implications for Asian trade? Increased investment in U.S. Chemical Industry 17,000 direct jobs, 395,000 indirect jobs $100B capital investment w/$132.4b increase US economic output Ethylene Production Capacity increase 30% increase (2011 to 2017) 5 new facilities (Dow, Shell, Chevron, Formosa, Sasol)

27 U.S. Energy Pricing

28 LNG Export Emerging capacity to export the commodity 4 permits issued for Gulf Coast Cove Point approved 9/14 Jordan Cove 3/24/14 Alaska permitted again Western/Eastern Canada 10+ bcf/d current. High level?? Economics favorable? Pricing Spot, long-term contract, oil-linked Competitive environment -East Africa, Australia, Canada, Qatar Federal permitting Political will increasing Geopolitical implications End markets Europe, Asia, Chile, Europe, Baltics

29 Canada British Columbia looking to be Canada s Alberta for nat gas Western Canadian gas looking to find home Asia Eastern markets finding Marcellus gas Maritimes?? Quebec?? Exports of Marcellus via NE and Goldboro NS Export options NS/NB regional supply/marcellus Increasing supply in Newfoundland mostly offshore

30 Canadian Imports/Exports

31 Gas Exports to Mexico

32 Power Gen Trends Coal and NG trading spots for top U.S. power gen fuel permanent?? 9 new natural gas power plants planned in Pennsylvania 8,000 total megawatts 15% of coal gen offline by yr low in CO2 emissions mainly market driven regulatory impacts New residential heat trends 43% gas 44% electric Greater onshore production Reduced offshore extreme weather price impacts

33 Rail Traffic (# cars) Rail Car Traffic Bradford Lycoming Tioga Counties

34 PA Shale Economic Impacts According to PA Department of Labor through 2012: Approximately new 20,000 jobs in "corerelated industries (direct jobs) Approximately 200,000 jobs supported partially by industry As of 4Q 2013 PA collected: Approx. $800M in well impact fees by end of 2014 Approximately $2 billion in taxes from Questions: Externalities covered? Current tax protocols correct? Larger public share? Local jobs? Trained? Durability over time? Local business growth?

35 Challenges Lack of broad awareness of energy use/need Social license to operate in communities Impacts of social media Zoning and land use court challenges Choke points in supply to critical areas --NE U.S. Right of way access going forward Governance/transparency Infrastructure needs in roads, bridges, rail, airports in rural areas Trained workforce Institutional capacity Lag in training vs. demand skill sets Cyber security concerns Political will Long-term energy policy Local/State/Federal levels $$$

36 Constraints? New regulatory oversight Federal vs. state state vs. state(ny/md PA/OH/WV) Regional initiatives induced seismicity Water disposal Air emissions fugitive methane Oil trains 20% of U.S. crude(1.6 M barrels/day) Taxation Severance in PA Size of company BP s new shale unit Nimbleness?

37 OCTOBER 14-15, TH ANNUAL NATURAL GAS UTILIZATION CONFERENCE Hilton Garden Inn Southpointe, PA PRESENTED BY

38 Contact Info: Thomas B. Murphy Director Penn State Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research 320 EES Building University Park, PA (570) cell +1 (814) office