New Zealand Country Report Five Nations
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1 New Zealand Country Report Five Nations September 2012 P12036
2 Land Use Trend 14,000 12,000 Pastoral Land Area Ha (000) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % +67% Sheep Beef Deer Goat Dairy Statistics New Zealand Overall -18% -2.4 m Ha 1990 to 2012
3 Stock Numbers by Regions at 30 June 2012 North Is Sheep 50% Beef 73% Dairy 64% Northland-Waikato-BOP Taranaki-Manawatu East Coast South Is Sheep 50% Beef 27% Dairy 36% Canterbury-Marlborough Southland Otago
4 Farm No s and Size New Zealand Commercial S&B Farms 22,000 12,610-43% Av Stock Units per farm Av Effective HA per farm 3, , % +36% No of Dairy Herds 15,881 11,735-26% Av Cows at peak Av Effective HA per farm % +119% Commercial Horticulture 7,000 Livestock Improvement Corporation, Dairy NZ, Horticulture NZ
5 NZ Sheep and Cattle Numbers to Sheep (000) 75,000 65,000 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 Dairy +85% Beef -15% Sheep -45% ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Cattle (000) Statistics New Zealand. % change 1990 to 2012
6 2011 World Beef Export Chilled & Frozen- December Year 1,200 1, % 17% 16% 15% 18% Australia India USA Brazil New Zealand Canada EU27 Other 000 Tonnes 6% 5% 5% Source: Global Trade Atlas
7 NZ Commercial Cattle Herd Breeds Angus 26% Angus Mixed 2% Angus 28% Hereford 7% Friesian 16% Mixed 30% Other 19% 100%
8 NZ Beef Herd - Calf Input Head (000) Spring 2012e Beef Calves % Dairy Beef Calves % Total Beef Calves 1, %
9 NZ Cattle Herd Structure Million head 1 July 2012 In calf Cows & Hfrs % Other Cattle % Total Beef Cattle (m) % Total Dairy Cattle % Total Cattle %
10 Productivity Comparison Carcase weights (kg) Animal p % Change (Peak) Steer % Heifer % Cow % Bull % All Cattle %
11 Total NZ Cattle Slaughter Seasonal Supply by Month 400, , ,000 Head 250, , , ,000 50, Oct 2009 Feb 2009 Jun 2009 Oct 2010 Feb 2010 Jun 2010 Oct 2011 Feb 2011 Jun 2011 Oct 2012 Feb 2012 Jun Other Cow
12 NZ Exchange Rate Trend (2000 Jan = 1000) Index 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Feb 2009 Aug 2010 Feb 2010 Aug 2011 Feb 12 month av Aug U.S. $ U.K. stg Euro Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2012 Feb e UK 0.0% US $ -0.7% EU +1.9% 2012 Aug 2013 Jan 2013 Jul
13 Export Focus % Exported $m exports Wool 91% $776 Lamb* 92% $2,671 Mutton* 94% $454 Beef and Veal* 80% $2,477 Dairy 96% $12,483 Deer [$265m] + Other 96% $923 Pastoral Sector $19,784 *Includes co-products June ending Year, SNZ
14 Beef Exports Sept 2011 to July Shipped Tonnes % % % 20 0 Shipped Tonnes $FOB per Kg Processing Secondary Cuts Prime $FOB per Kg
15 US Bull Beef Price Quotes 95 CL Debt bubble boom July 11 to July Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2009 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Apr 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2011 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2012 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul c/kg difference NZ:US exchange rate NZ +11% US +6% US c/kg NZ c/kg US cattle herd decreasing. 90.8m 1 Jan 2012
16 M Bull Cents per kg Month and Annual Average USD 0.70 Cents per kg USD 0.80 USD Month average Dec 2008 Mar 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2009 Mar 2009 Jun 2009 Sep 2009 Dec 2010 Mar 2010 Jun 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2011 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2012 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2013 Mar 2013 Jun Carcase kg
17 New Zealand Cattle Prices Sept Year, NZD per head $ per head Beef All Grades $ per head 1,200 1,000 $1, $ $ Beef Market Change and Exchange Rate Effect 300 -$17.91 $ per head Market Change $ Exchange Rate $ p f +$1.30
18 Cattle Hides $ each Month and Annual Average $ each $ Month average Dec 2008 Mar 2008 Jun 2008 Sep 2008 Dec 2009 Mar 2009 Jun 2009 Sep 2009 Dec 2010 Mar 2010 Jun 2010 Sep 2010 Dec 2011 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Sep 2011 Dec 2012 Mar 2012 Jun
19 Sheep & Beef Farm Profit before Tax per Farm, Constant $s 140,000 NZ:US$ , ,000 80,000 60, s decade av. $44,800 Improved in-market prices NZ:US$ 79 40,000 20, s decade av. $65, Sheep and Beef Farm Survey, All Classes Farm Lowest in 50 yrs NZ:US$ p
20 Sheep & Beef Farm Gate Terms of Exchange (Prices received / Input Prices) 1700 Index = 1, Prices Recieved Prices Paid Terms of Exchange p
21 Beef Outlook and June Yr For Beef export volumes down 1.0%, Export receipts down 1.8% to $2.0 billion Lower beef export production due to declines in cull cow and heifer slaughter compared with The decline was due to an excellent season and higher rate of cows and heifer in calf than in most year. Hides made up 52.8 per cent (NZ$ 244 million) of co-product export receipts from cattle for the year to June 2012 The outlook for is for a 7.8 per cent increase in export slaughter due to an increase in the cow and heifer slaughter, linked to a carry-over of cull dairy cattle from the previous year Other Pacific EU South Asia North Asia North America
22 Sheep & Beef Farm Outlook p All Classes Revenue per Farm* $ Wool Account 54,900 +5% Sheep Account 245, % Cattle Account 95,700 +6% Dairy Grazing Account 20, % Crop Ac 49, % Gross Farm Revenue 491, % *4,056 su; 2,823 sheep; 303 beef cattle; 32 deer
23 Material Supplied for Public use only by agreement from 2012 Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited previously operating as Meat & Wool New Zealand Limited. All rights reserved. This work is covered by copyright and may not be stored, reproduced or copied without the prior written permission of Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited, Box 121, Wellington. Phone: 64 (0) , Fax: 64 (0) info@beeflambnz.com Beef + Lamb New Zealand Limited, its employees and directors shall not be liable for any loss or damage sustained by any person relying on the forecasts or other information contained in this document, whatever the cause of such loss or damage.
24 Beef Production (2010 to 2020) Latin America leads growth NAFTA (1,397 kt) Europe (-2 kt) Asia (2,729 kt) Forecast growth in Latin America ( ) of 3,148 kt cwe 34% of world forecast production growth Latin America & Caribbean (3,148 kt) Africa (1,287 kt) Australia & New Zealand (320 kt) Total Production Growth (thousand tonnes) Sources: OECD, Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service
25 Beef Consumption (2010 to 2020) Asia leads growth Forecast growth in Asia ( ) of 3,400 kt cwe NAFTA (1,308 kt) Europe (262 kt) Asia (3,400 kt) 37% of world forecast demand growth Latin America & Caribbean (2,276 kt) Africa (1,485 kt) Australia & New Zealand (203 kt) Total Consumption Growth (thousand tonnes) Sources: OECD, Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service
26 US Bull Beef Price Quotes 95 CL Debt bubble boom July 11 to July 12 NZ +11% Jan 2008 Apr 2008 Jul 2008 Oct 2009 Jan 2009 Apr 2009 Jul 2009 Oct 2010 Jan 2010 Apr 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2011 Jan 2011 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 Oct 2012 Jan 2012 Apr 2012 Jul c/kg difference NZ:US exchange rate US +6% US c/kg NZ c/kg US cattle herd decreasing. 90.8m 1 Jan 2012
27 Math for slide 16 US NZ ER Jul ' Jul ' % 6% 11%
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