Opportunities and Challenges for Biomass Heat and Power. Anselm Eisentraut International Energy Agency

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1 Opportunities and Challenges for Biomass Heat and Power Anselm Eisentraut International Energy Agency

2 Renewables are major source of new generation Cumulative change in gross power generation by source and region, TWh OECD Renewable generation Conventional generation Renewables account for 80% of new generation in OECD Limited upside in stable markets with slow demand and growing policy risks Non-OECD Renewable generation Conventional generation Renewables are largest new generation source in non-oecd, but meet only 35% of growth Large upside for dynamic markets with fast-growing demand

3 Increasing risks are expected to slow renewable growth World renewable electricity net annual capacity additions Total renewable electricity capacity increases 860 GW , led by wind and solar PV Bioenergy power capacity set to increase 50% , lead by China, US and India However, policy and market risks threaten to slow deployment momentum

4 Strong momentum for renewable electricity Global renewable electricity generation, historical and projected TWh Historical data and estimates Forecast Hydropower Bioenergy Natural gas 2013 Onshore wind Offshore wind Solar PV Nuclear 2013 Geothermal STE/CSP Ocean % total generation (right axis) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 45% from 2013 to 2020

5 Biomass power generation to increase 50% Bioenergy electricity generation Ambitious plans for agricultural residue use, and waste-to-energy projects, lead to tripling of capacity in China Targets for biomass power in the European Union remain an important driver, despite growth in some markets slowing down

6 Electricity generation costs pose challenge for bioenergy Levelisedcost of electricity generation continue to decrease for most renewable technologies Bioenergy falling behind as most technologies already mature and feedstock costs prevent steep cost reductions

7 Biomass is the most important source of renewable heat today Share of renewable energy in total final energy use for heat, 2012 Renewable heat provides 26% of world final energy use for heat; modern renewables provide only 9% High shares of renewable energy in total heat use in specific countries / regions often linked to extensive traditional biomass use (Africa, India, Non-OECD Asia)

8 Renewable energy use for heat to grow in buildings and industry Buildings sector s renewable heat use only growing slowly due to opposing trends in bioenergy use: Traditional biomass use set to decline (China, Brazil) or growth slowing down Modern biomass continues to grow driven by support policies and attractive economics Renewable heat in industry growing slowly in absence of strong (policy) drivers

9 Bioenergy remains most important source of modern renewable heat EJ Buildings Modern bioenergy use for heat Industry TWh th OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe China India Brazil Africa Non-OECD Americas (excl. Brazil) Non-OECD Asia (excl. India) Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East Note: excludes traditional biomass use Buildings OECD Europe remains key market, due to EU 2020 targets for renewable energy China fastest growing market a.o. due to ambitious biogas program Industry Steady growth continues, as economic recovery and high fossil fuel costs drive bioenergy use for heat

10 Biomass a competitive source of heat in many circumstances Buildings direct electricity heating (Europe) Buildings gas heating (Europe) Industry (1 MW-5 MW) Industry (100 kw-1000 kw) Commercial (100 kw-1500 kw) Residential (1 kw-10 kw) USD/MWh th Cost competitiveness of bioenergy heat with high heating oil and natural gas prices is important driver in many regions

11 Role of renewable heat is increasing, but policy support still limited Countries with targets and support policies for renewable heat This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Only around 50 countries worldwide have support measures for renewable heat in place compared to more than 110 for renewable electricity Broader adoption of support policies for renewable heat critical to reduce fossil fuel consumption and enhance energy security

12 Biomass supply chain is vital for bioenergy deployment Global wood pellet production Wood pellet consumption by energy sector in the EU Sources: REN21 (2013); AEBIOM (2013) Sustained growth in both heat and power sector will require continued development of viable supply chains, including international trade

13 Biomass becoming largest primary energy source in a low-carbon energy scenario In the IEA 2 Degree Scenario, aimed at reducing energy-related emission by 50% by 2050, biomass (and wastes) contribute one quarter (160 EJ) of primary energy supply in 2050 OECD/IEA 2012

14 Bioenergy an important source of heat Buildings Bioenergy share on total demand: 30%in %in 2050 Industry Bioenergy share on total demand: 8%in %in 2050 Bioenergy use in non-oecd buildings sector declines traditional biomass replaced by more efficient technologies; improved energy efficiency Biomass is a key low-carbon fuel alternative for high temperature heat, at relatively competitive costs OECD/IEA 2012

15 World bioenergy electricity supply to grow more then ten-fold Share in total electricity generation increases from 2% today, to 7% in 2050 Bioenergy provides firm capacity and dispatchable electricity OECD/IEA 2012

16 Conclusions Opportunities: Role of bioenergy expanding in all end-use sectors Competitiveness with fossil fuels, in particular for heating Can provide dispatchable, in some cases flexible, renewable power Potential to provide substantial emission reductions Challenges: Policy uncertainty, or absence of policy framework, in several markets could undermine further growth in both heat and power production Supply chains for large-scale feedstock supply need to be established Solid sustainability framework is needed to ensure overall positive impact of bioenergy development

17 Thank you for your attention! Technology roadmap Bioenergy for Heat and Power Heating Without Global Warming Contact:

18 Disclaimer This presentation is derived from the analysis published in the IEA'sMedium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014 which is available at: For more information on renewable energy at the IEA please visit: Should you have any questions or comments about this workbook, please write to Please note that the IEA s Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014 is subject to restrictions that limit its use and distribution. These terms and conditions are available online at: OECD/IEA