Clean Coal in a post COP21 era

Transcription

1 Clean Coal in a post COP21 era Kamel Ben Naceur Clean Coal Day in Japan 2016 International Symposium Tokyo, 7 8 September 2016

2 Context: Coal in today s energy system The importance and implication of coal today Generates over 40% of electricity Can be important for economic & social development & energy security Produces almost 50% of CO 2 emissions & is a key source of air pollution China is at the center of the coal world Responsible for 80% of rise in coal use since 2000 & now half global use Is world's top coal producer and until recently largest importer After a decade of growth, global coal use halted in 2014 and is declining in 2015 Coal prices are at decade lows on a glut of supply & tepid demand

3 Context: Coal prices keep hitting new lows 250 Global financial crisis Development of thermal coal prices 200 New supply capacity meets slowing demand 150 $/t CIF Prices in North West Europe (ARA) Global overcapacity and weaker than expected demand look set to put further downward pressure on coal prices through 2020

4 Context: Global Emissions and Renewables First clear signs of decoupling of CO 2 emissions and GDP Global energy related CO 2 emissions flattened in despite growing GDP Renewable power capacity at record high with 147 GW installed in 2015 COP21 provided a historic push for clean energy Start of a new era of collaboration: Country based approaches preferred to top down regulation New goals put forward going beyond what everyone already considered challenging when our first ETP was released in 2006

5 Context: Wind and PV Downward price trends continuing rapidly Recent announced long-term contract prices for new renewable power to be commissioned over Jord 120 an India India USD/MWh (nominal) South Africa Brazi l South Africa Cana da Urug uay Brazi l Chile Brazi l USA Germa ny France Jord an UAEAustralia South Africa Brazi l Germa ny USA South India Africa Chile Peru Egyp t Moro cco Peru Solar PV Wind onshore Best results occur where price competition, long term contracts and good resource availability are combined

6 Context: Renewable Energy deployment prospects World renewable power annual capacity additions, main vs. accelerated case G W Historical Accelerated Post COP United States Japan EU-28 Other OECD India China Brazil Other non-oecd MTRMR 2015-Main case October 2015Post- COP21 March 2016 With recent policy changes, 35% of gap between main and accelerated case is bridged RM2

7 The COP21 Agreement in Paris LONG TERM MITIGATION GOAL Temperature goal "well below" 2 C, and pursue efforts to limit to 1.5 C To achieve the temperature goal, Parties aim to reach a peaking of global emissions as soon as possible, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter so as to achieve a balance between emissions and removals by sinks in the second half of this century (i.e. net zero emissions but these words were not used). Parties are encouraged to develop and communicate national long term low greenhouse gas development strategies.

8 Addressing the COP21 challenge Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO 2 reductions 45 4DS 40 Renewables 32% GtCO Energy efficiency 32% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% DS CCS 15% The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two thirds through a diversified energy technology mix

9 Re thinking electricity supply % 80% Other Wind STE Solar PV TWh % 40% Hydro Biofuels and waste Nuclear Coal with CCS Coal % Oil Natural gas with CCS 0 0% Natural gas Low carbon share Generation today: Generation 2DS 2050: Fossil fuels: 68% Renewables: 67% Renewables: 22% Fossil fuels: 17%

10 Innovation can support a multitude of sustainable energy solutions Primary energy mix in the ETP scenarios Other renewables Hydro EJ 400 Biomass and waste Nuclear Fossil Non fossil Fossil Non fossil Fossil Non fossil 2050 Coal Oil Natural gas 6DS 4DS 2DS Fossil fuels remain an important RM3part of global energy supply in the 2DS with a 45% share in 2050

11 Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate Technology Status today against 2DS targets Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind Other renewable power Nuclear More efficient coal fired power Carbon capture and storage Biofuels Transport Industry Buildings Appliances and lighting Energy storage Not on track Accelerated improvement needed On track Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2 C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising

12 Action can begin today Five key actions, led by energy efficiency and renewables, and including a reduction in inefficient coal to peak then reduce global energy emissions. Emissions savings in the Bridge Scenario by measure, 2030 Upstream methane reductions Fossil fuel subsidy reform 15% 10% 49% Energy efficiency Renewables investment 17% 9% Reducing inefficient coal Five measures save almost 5 Gt of emissions by 2030 & achieve a global emissions peak by 2020, without harming economic growth & using only proven technologies

13 The use of fossil fuels is gradually more efficient and sustainable Carbon intensity of coal fired power generation The economic benefit of improved power generation efficiency is partly offsetting weak low carbon policies OECD/IEA 2015

14 but unabated coal use is rising Unabated coal use in electricity generation is incompatible with 2DS objectives

15 Coal: High efficient low emissions? We will need CCS to make coal low carbon CO2 intensity in 2DS Subcritical 700 gco2/kwh Supercritical IGCC Ultrasupercritical Ultrasupercritical+ post comb capture ETP 2014, 2015

16 Coal: Unlocking in China What kind of potential exists to retrofit CCS on China s existing coal fired power fleet? Analysis partners: China Electricity Council (CEC) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) International Energy Agency (IEA) Facilitated by: Administrative Centre for China s Agenda 21 (ACCA21) for ccs retrofit.html

17 310GW of plant suitable for retrofit

18 Relative (additional) retrofitting costs

19 Power generation efficiency: Reducing the cost of CO 2 abatement Impact of efficiency improvement on CO 2 abatement Raising efficiency significantly reduces the CO 2 /kwh emitted

20 Coal: to avoid carbon lock in, Improve efficiency, then deploy CCS To meet the 2DS, generation from subcritical plants need to cease before their technical lifetimes end.

21 Early stage support is key to improve future technology competitiveness Projected Projected Levelised Levelised Cost Cost of of Electricity Electricity of of coal coal power power generation generation in in the Japan USA Assumptions on Capture Cost and Performance in the 2DS Aggressive cost reductions are needed in the near term to make these projections a reality OECD/IEA 2015

22 Collaboration: the New Modus Operandi to meet sustainability goals COP 21 invited Non State Actors to actively contribute to the climate solution Increased participation from Business, NGOs and Local Governments Paris Pledge for Action support to ensuring that the level of ambition set by the Paris Agreement is met or exceeded International co operation can drive innovation Acting together, governments and industry can make decarbonisation easier and even more affordable Clean Energy Ministerial, Mission: Innovation, Breakthrough Energy Coalition

23 IEA Energy Technology Network: Technology Collaboration Programmes This map is without prejudice to the status of sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area. Experts from countries shown above participate in activities of the Technology Collaboration Programmes. OECD/IEA 2015

24 Clean Coal related TCPs IEA Clean Coal Centre (IEA CCC) IEA CCC provides information on the clean and efficient use of coal worldwide through in depth topical reports, literature reviews and online databases, as well as through conferences and workshops. IEA Fluidized Bed Conversion (IEA FBC) IEA FBC provides a forum for experts in the field of fluidized bed conversion. The main activity of the TCP is technical exchanges on current FBC research during meetings and workshops. IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG) IEAGHG studies and evaluates technologies that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions derived from the use of fossil fuels. A focus of the work of the IEAGHG has been on carbon capture and storage.

25 Conclusions While coal has been a strong support for expanded electricity use, it also leads to over 50% of the CO 2 emissions 2015 has seen an exceptional growth of investment in renewables, helped partly by declining generation costs The Paris Agreement requires decarbonisation of the energy sector at a much faster rate than currently observed Electricity generation will be completely transformed by 2050 To avoid carbon lock in, improve efficiency, then deploy CCS China coal retrofit study Collaboration is the new Modus Operandi to meet the sustainability goals

26 Thank you for your attention