World LNG Market : current developments and prospects. Valérie Duval. Head of Economic & Valuation Studies Global Gas & LNG Business Line

Transcription

1 World LNG Market : current developments and prospects Valérie Duval Head of Economic & Valuation Studies Global Gas & LNG Business Line Conférence CLAR Economie GEP AFTP November 23 rd, 2011

2 DISCLAIMER Forward-Looking statements This communication contains forward-looking information and statements. These statements include financial projections, synergies, cost-savings and estimates, statements regarding plans, objectives, savings, expectations and benefits from the transactions and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Although the management of GDF SUEZ believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of GDF SUEZ securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are not guarantees of future performances and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of GDF SUEZ, that could cause actual results, developments, synergies, savings and benefits to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the public filings made by GDF SUEZ with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), including those listed under Facteurs de Risque (Risk factors) section in the Document de Référence filed by GDF SUEZ with the AMF on 28 March 2011 (under no: D ). Investors and holders of GDF SUEZ securities should consider that the occurrence of some or all of these risks may have a material adverse effect on GDF SUEZ. 2

3 Agenda Current trends in LNG markets Past and Future developments in LNG markets LNG Pricing GDF SUEZ s LNG activities 3

4 Recent trends in world LNG trade In 2010, spectacular growth for world LNG trade (296 bcm +20%) thanks to economic recovery in Asia, build up of Qatari deliveries in Europe, emergence of new markets (Latin America, Middle East). In 2011, expected high growth rate of World LNG trade (+6% according to CERA): Supply growth led for more than 2/3 by Qatar (Qatargas IV onstream in Feb-2011) and to a lesser extent Peru and Yemen. The UK overtook Spain as the world s third largest LNG importer after Japan and South Korea. LNG growth in Asia in both emerging (China, India) and traditional markets (Japan post-fukushima impact). 4

5 Faster growth of LNG trade than pipeline trade Over , the world gas trade has recorded a 4.5% growth on average per year. This was help by the expansion of the LNG trade, which global pace of growth, estimated at 6.9% per year over the period, largely overtook that of the pipeline trade ( +3.7% per year). Source: CEDIGAZ This rapid expansion was mostly explained by growing import requirements in traditional Asian LNG markets (Japan, South Korea), in Europe and in the United States (until 2007). Source: CEDIGAZ 5

6 Increasing LNG flows and involved countries (1/2) 2000 situation USA (Alaska) Belgium France Greece Italy Spain Turkey Asia : 55% of the LNG market Puerto Rico USA Trinidad and T. Algeria Libya Nigeria Abu Dhabi Oman Qatar Indonesia : 26% of the exports market Japan South Korea Taiwan Malaysia Brunei Indonesia Australia Source : GIIGNL 2000 LNG Market 100 Mtpa 12 LNG producing countries 11 LNG importing countries 6

7 Increasing LNG flows and involved countries (2/2) 2011 situation USA (Alaska) Belgium France Greece Italy Portugal Spain Turkey UK Netherlands Norway Asia : 62% of the LNG market Russia Canada Dominican Rep. Mexico Puerto Rico USA Trinidad and T. Argentina Brazil Chile Algeria Egypt Libya Nigeria Eq. Guinea Kuwait, UAE Abu Dhabi Oman Qatar Yemen Qatar : 26% of the exports market Thailand China India Japan South Korea Taiwan Malaysia Brunei Indonesia Australia Source : GIIGNL, PFC, GDF SUEZ (*) CERA Estimates LNG Market 232 Mtpa (*) 18 LNG producing countries 25 LNG importing countries 7

8 World LNG demand to grow at a rapid pace over the next 20 years CAGR % % +6% Asia expected to remain the largest consuming area, thanks to emerging countries like China, India and new LNG importers. Europe LNG demand to post a sustained growth over

9 New LNG importers to emerge over (*) excluding European countries Source: FACTS Global Energy and CERA Thailand started to import LNG in newcomers to follow over New LNG importers will account for an approximately 15% market share by

10 Global LNG production capacity to double over Qatar Australia Source: CERA Qatar and Australia will account for over 40% of total production capacity in Main growth over will come from Australia and Sub-Saharian Africa Additional potential from North America and Qatar. 10

11 Natural Gas and LNG growth to be positively impacted by a reinforcement of green policies Natural gas and LNG is expected to play an important role in reducing environmental greenhouse gas emissions: Less CO2 and local pollutants emissions than other fossil fuels. Abundant ressources with unconventional gas potential Important role to play by providing the flexibility needed to support a growing renewables component in power generation. Significant opportunities remain for natural gas to replace other fossil fuels in end-use sectors, in particular in emerging countries. CO 2 emissions in the GAS Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2035 Increase due to overall increase in energy demand Increase due to reduced nuclear energy Increase due to reduced renewable energy Reduction due to substitution of coal and oil by gas in: China Rest of the world Source: AIE GAS scenario 11

12 Coexistence of different LNG price regimes Price indexations for LNG contracts NBP Oil Products Henry Hub JCC Gas-on-gas market WTI Oil-linked market LNG is not a global market, but different regional markets interconnected 12

13 Gas prices worldwide to continue to diverge, with Asia traded as a premium Oil price spike? Source: PFC Energy Unconventional gas impact? In the US, shale gas developments and low LNG trade keep Henry Hub as an isolated reference. Asian LNG expected to continue to be traded as a premium in the decade 13

14 The importance of LNG for GDF SUEZ 250 TWh (16,5 Mtpa) LNG portfolio : Over 30% of long term gas supply portfolio Contributes to security and diversification of supply Generates optimization and arbitrage opportunities Provides, with E&P and downstream activities (Power), leverages for Group developments, in particular in fast-growing countries. 14

15 GDF SUEZ, a Global Leader in LNG 3rd largest LNG supply portfolio in the world 16.5 MTPA of long term supplies from 6 countries Largest LNG portfolio in the Atlantic Basin Largest LNG importer in Europe LNG long-term portfolio* nd largest operator of LNG terminals in Europe Source: PFC * LT purchase contracts, excluding equity LNG GDF SUEZ, a global LNG leader 15

16 GDF SUEZ: global LNG positions in the world Snøhvit LNG Isle of Grain Zeebrugge 17 LNG carriers (incl. 2 Shuttle & Regasification Vessels) Everett Montoir Fos Tonkin Fos Cavaou Sabine Pass Freeport Neptune Huelva Cartagena Dahej Idku * Penuelas: access through long-term sales agreement Penuelas* Atlantic LNG * NLNG Arzew Bethioua Skikda Yemen LNG Kochi Mejillones Cameroon (planned) Bonaparte LNG (planned) LNG ACTIVITIES Atlantic LNG: on-going disposal Existing equity in liquefaction plants Existing Regasification Terminal Regas with equity without capacity Long-term LNG supply Under Construction Regasification Regas capacity without equity Planned Liquefaction Planned Regasification Regas with capacity and equity 16

17 Conclusion LNG Market will continue to develop significantly in the future, at a higher rate than gas demand Gas demand and LNG will benefit from environmental policies, in particular in fast growing countries Regional gas markets are still driving price formation GDF SUEZ leading positions in LNG leverages new opportunities for value creation, in Europe and in fast-growing markets. 17

18 Thank you for your attention

19