Cyclical developments and monetary policy

Transcription

1 Cyclical developments and monetary policy Deputy Governor Jarle Bergo Regional network, Region East Oslo, November Inflation-targeting countries OECD countries Australia United Kingdom Canada Sweden Iceland Korea Mexico Czech Republic New Zealand Turkey Norway Poland Hungary (euro-area countries and Switzerland) Others Brazil Peru Chile Romania Colombia South Africa Philippines Thailand Israel

2 The exchange rate fluctuates Trade-weighted exchange rate. Index. January 99 = Norway Source: EcoWin The exchange rate fluctuates Trade-weighted exchange rate. Index. January 99 = Commodity economies Other economies New Zealand United Kingdom Norway Norway Australia Sweden Source: EcoWin

3 Estimated basic balance. In billions of NOK. Annual figures Current account surplus Current account adjusted for the Petroleum Fund¹ Estimated basic balance² ) Adjusted for annual allocation to the Government Petroleum Fund, and fixed income and dividend income for the Petroleum Fund. ) Adjusted for transfers to the Petroleum Fund and estimates of the oil companies' cash surplus Sources: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Norway and Inflation is low CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector. -month rise. Per cent. - - Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Sources: Statistics Norway and

4 Monetary easing Sight deposit rate (left-hand scale) Exchange rate, I- (right-hand scale) Source: 7 GDP. Quarterly figures. Annual change. Per cent. Q Q Interest rate expectations. Actual developments and expected key rate at Nov 9 China UK Sweden UK USA Euro area Euro area USA Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Consensus Economics, Bureau of Economic Analysis (USA), Reuters and

5 Projections for the output gap¹ Annual figures. Per cent ) The output gap measures the difference between actual and potential mainland GDP Sources: Statistics Norway and 9 Local government revenues, underlying spending growth over the central government budget and mainland GDP. Percentage change in value from to 9 9 Revenues Expenditure GDP Local government Central government Mainland Norway Source: Ministry of Finance

6 LFS employment In millions. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. Jan 9 Aug Source: Statistics Norway Growth in consumption and real wages. Annual figures. Per cent ) Real wage growth (right-hand scale) Growth in consumption (left-hand scale) ) Projections Sources: Statistics Norway and

7 Real exchange rate - competitiveness Relative labour costs Norway and trading partners. Deviation from average 97. Per cent. Local currency - - Common Currency Sources: TRCIC, Ministry of Finance and s regional network Region East: Continued growth Region North-West Møreforskning Molde Region South-West Rogalands forskning Stavanger Region North Kunnskapsparken Bodø Region Central Norway Centre for Economic Research at NTNU Trondheim Region Inland Østlandsforskning Lillehammer Region East Region South Agderforskning Kristiansand - Normal growth rate in most industries - Continued strongest growth in retail trade for households - Residential construction is boosting activity in building and construction sector - Higher level of activity is increasing profitability Source:

8 Lower unemployment in most regions over the past year Unemployment¹ as a percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted monthly figures. Per cent. Central Norway East North South Southwest Northwest Sør Inland ) Including persons in labour market programmes Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Sources: Directorate of Labour and Real oil price in USD¹ and nominal oil price. Brent Blend in USD per barrel. Monthly figures Oil price measured in USD Nominal oil price Idle production capacity in OPEC. Million barrels per day. Monthly figures. jan. 7 jan. jan. 9 jan. ) Average CPI in the US in the period Jan Sept. Sources: EcoWin, Bureau of Labor Statistics (US) and

9 Credit growth -month rise. Per cent Non-financial enterprises Total credit mainland Households Source: 7 Projections and uncertainty for CPI- ATE. -month change. Per cent. Jan Dec 7 The outlook for the Norwegian economy The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for consumer price inflation: % % 7% 9% Projections and uncertainty for growth in mainland GDP. Annual change. Per cent. The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for growth in mainland GDP % % 7% 9% 7 7 Sources: Statistics Norway and

10 Projected CPI-ATE and output gap IR / Per cent CPI-ATE - Output gap Sources: Statistics Norway and 9