Time to improve the inflation target?
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- Oliver Kennedy
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1 Time to improve the inflation target? Handelsbanken 3 December Deputy Governor Per Jansson
2 My messages Be careful about making major changes to Swedish economic policy frameworks! Flexible inflation targeting policy should also be the basis in the future Some improvements are worth seriously considering, however The target variable Interval surrounding the target
3 Reforms after the 1990s crisis provided stability The Lindbeck Commission 1993: "System failure" Systematically overly expansionary economic policy Fiscal policy Framework with an amended budget process Monetary policy Inflation target, independent Riksbank Wage formation Industrial Agreement, industry plays normative role in wage formation
4 Strong public finances fundamental Note. Refers to public debt. The broken line represents the IMF s forecast. Source: The IMF
5 Orderliness and reliability in the nominal economy Inflation and GDP growth Nominal and real wage increases Note. CPIF refers to the period Annual percentage change. According to short-term wage statistics after 1993 and wage structure statistics before Real wages are calculated as the difference between the annual percentage change in nominal wages and the annual percentage change in the CPI. Sources: Swedish National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
6 High level of confidence in the Swedish economy internationally Note. The yield differential refers to 10-year government bonds and is based on monthly data. Percentage points. Sources: Thomson Reuters and the Riksbank
7 Will not be raised Level of the inflation target Recently discussed by Flodén and Skingsley, among others Monetary policy and financial imbalances Alternatives to inflation targeting (for ex. nominal GDP targeting) Important however to follow the international debate! Avoid home-grown solutions that we may regret
8 The target variable CPI from the beginning of 1993 Well-known measure Large part of households' consumption Published regularly A problem, however: Major direct impact of interest rate changes in "the wrong direction" Other measures have guided interest rate decisions: "On-target CPIF inflation on average leads to on-target CPI inflation"
9 Interest rate changes have a direct impact on CPI inflation Note. The weighted mortgage series rate is chained in December 2014 due to altered measurement method. Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
10 The target variable CPI from the beginning of 1993 Well-known measure Large part of households' consumption Published regularly A problem, however: Major direct impact of interest changes in "the wrong direction" Other measures have guided interest rate decisions: "CPIF inflation of 2 per cent will lead to CPI inflation on target on average"
11 Swedish CPI inflation relatively unique Housing costs: Cost calculation in which interest rates weigh heavily Less impact of interest rates in most other countries USA, Norway - rental equivalent approach Euro area, United Kingdom - HICP (operating costs only) Australia, New Zealand - net acquisition approach Canada has similar method to Sweden on paper, but...
12 Minor impact of interest rates on CPI inflation in Canada Inflation in Canada Interest expenditure Note. Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and Statistics Canada
13 Not a new phenomenon - but major differences since the crisis Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. HICP refers to the EU-harmonised index for consumer prices. Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
14 Problems with CPI as a target index Misleading image of state of the Swedish economy CPI inflation has long been far from the target Risk of reduced confidence in the inflation target "Does stabilisation of CPIF inflation lead to stabilisation of CPI inflation?" Risk of instability in terms of wage formation Extremely low CPI inflation followed by unusually high CPI inflation Major fluctuations in the focus on current CPI inflation
15 "Deflation!" SvD, December 2014 Metro November 2013 TT/SvD, November 2013 SR March 2013 SIX/Affärsvärlden juli 2015 Financial Times October 2014
16 Problems with CPI as a target index Misleading image of state of the Swedish economy CPI inflation far from the target for a long time Risk of reduced confidence in the inflation target "Does stabilisation of CPIF inflation really lead to stabilisation of CPI inflation?" Risk of instability in wage formation Extremely low CPI inflation followed by unusually high CPI inflation Problems with major focus on current CPI inflation
17 CPI inflation in the future - an example Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. The development of the CPI after 2018 is calculated based on a linear projection of the repo rate to its average between and the assumption that the CPIF will be at 2 percent. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
18 Interval surrounding the target Tolerance band ± 1 percentage point introduced at the same time as the target in 1993 Removed in 2010 No practical function, "major deviations natural part of monetary policy" Sufficiently long time to evaluate the removal Did the band really not fulfil any function?
19 Tolerance band or target range? Tolerance band: 2 per cent point target, but 1-3 per cent can be "tolerated" in the event of unforeseen events Target range: 1 or 3 per cent as good as 2 per cent The Swedish debate is mainly about the target range: "The Riksbank does not need to aim for 2 per cent, risks linked to a very expansionary policy can be avoided"
20 Current Swedish debate about the range Monetary policy not rigidly fixated on 2 per cent Rather: Long period below the target, falling long-term inflation expectations Difficult to counteract future recessions if expectations get stuck at a level that is too low See international debate on raising the inflation target Neither a target range nor tolerance band would have led to a notably different monetary policy
21 Reasons to reintroduce the band Tolerance band useful for illustrating uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and reminding people that the Riksbank cannot fine-tune the economy and inflation Band should have a practical significance Special report (see Bank of England's open letter) Important to match the target variable and the band
22 Tolerance band of 1-3 per cent would have been better suited to CPIF and HICP CPI CPIF and HICP Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. HICP refers to the EU-harmonised index for consumer prices. Broken lines refer to potential tolerance band. Annual percentage change. Source: Statistics Sweden
23 Time to improve the inflation target? Be careful about making major changes to Swedish economic policy frameworks! Flexible inflation targeting also best approach in the future Some improvements should be seriously considered, however The target variable: Replace CPI inflation with CPIF or HICP inflation Band: Reintroduce a tolerance band
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