International Monetary Policy Transmission Előd Takáts and Abraham Vela Bank for International Settlements. BIS Papers No 78. Carl Musozya.

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1 International Monetary Policy Transmission Előd Takáts and Abraham Vela Bank for International Settlements. BIS Papers No 78 Carl Musozya.

2 Introduction. Effects of advanced economy monetary policy on the financial conditions in Emerging Markets (EMs). International Finance Theory Investors will seek the highest returns.

3 Evolution of Brazil Exchange Rate.

4 Fed Creates Volatility in International Markets. US capital markets most dominant in the world. More open capital markets have led to more efficient allocation of capital. However, this means EMs are more exposed to sudden shifts in international risk appetite leading to macroeconomic volatility.

5 Paper. Effects of US interest rates on EMs that participated in the Meeting of Deputy Central Bank Governors in Basel. Four areas: 1) Short-term policy rates. 2) Long-term interest rates. 3) International bank lending. 4) Market risk-taking.

6 Countries Represented: Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, the Czech Republic, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, the Philippine, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

7 1) Response of EM Policy Rates to US Policy. Influx of capital as investors seek higher yield. Potential to heat-up sectors of the receiving economy. Central Bank may have to guard against potential bubbles.

8 Rates Policy Rates. 8 EMs & US Policy Rates US Int. EMs Int Years: 200x

9 Regression Analysis of Policy Rates. Domestic Taylor Equation for each EM: Where: r policy rate. π inflation rate. Y output gap. t quarterly time index.

10 Regression Analysis of Policy Rates. Augmented Taylor Equation with US Policy Rate (and Shadow Rate): Results are based on this equation.

11 Regression Results.

12 My Regression Analysis. Modified Augmented Taylor Equation with US Policy Rate: Where: r policy rate. π inflation rate. Y GDP growth (same quarter last year). t quarterly time index.

13 My Regression Results. US Policy Rate Brazil 1.358*** 1.08*** Chile China 0.052*** 0.07*** Colombia 0.285** 0.36*** Czech Republic 0.286*** 0.48*** Hungary India *** Indonesia *** Israel 0.702*** 0.95*** Korea 0.347*** 0.32*** Malaysia 0.081*** 0.02 Mexico 0.685*** 0.78*** Peru 0.268*** 0.51*** Philippines 0.789*** 0.89*** Poland 0.305*** 0.75*** Russia ** Singapore 0.465*** 0.49*** South Africa 0.448** 0.73*** Turkey 1.605*** 3.33*** Thailand 0.334*** 0.16***

14 2) Long-term Interest Rates. Regression Analysis: Where: r-long 5 year interest rate. r-policy policy rate. π inflation rate. Y output gap. t quarterly time index.

15 Regression Results.

16 My regression Analysis. US 5 Yr Brazil 1.74*** *** China -0.25** Hong Kong 1.02*** 1.28*** 0.88*** Hungary -0.19** -0.27*** India Korea 0.34*** 0.66*** 1.02*** Singapore 0.59*** 0.67*** 0.58*** South Africa *** 1.10***

17 3) International Bank Lending. Efficient allocation of capital around the world. (lend directly or through subsidiaries) Increased contagion risk. Channel for monetary spill overs.

18 BIS Reporting Banks Lending in EMs.

19 BIS Reporting Banks Lending in Asia. Bank credit to the local private and public sectors. China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

20 BIS Reporting Banks Lending in Latin America. Bank credit to the local private and public sectors. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela.

21 4) Portfolio Flows. Increased portfolio flows to EMs in recent years. Risk-on/risk-off theory. Search for higher returns.

22 Portfolio Flows.

23 Portfolio Flows. 1. Argentina 2. Brazil 3. Chile 4. Hong Kong 5. Colombia 6. Czech Republic 7. Hungary 8. India 9. Indonesia 10. Israel 11. Korea 12. Mexico 13. Philippines 14. Poland 15. Russian Federation 16. Singapore 17. South Africa 18. Thailand 19. Turkey 20. Venezuela

24 Portfolio Flows. 1. Brazil 2. Chile 3. Colombia 4. India 5. Mexico 6. South Africa 7. Turkey

25 International Debt. EMs non-bank corporations issuance of debt securities in international markets EMs with considered low external debt could still be vulnerable to global economic shocks.

26 International Debt.

27 International Debt. Sources: BIS securities statistics (nationality and residence).

28 Panel VAR analysis.* Based on monthly observations for 13 EMEs for which information was readily available. Source: Bloomberg Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Czech Republic, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, and Singapore.

29

30 1) India 2) Korea 3) Singapore 4) South Africa

31 Conclusions. Changes in US long-term interest rates have significant effect on portfolio flows to EMs and Reserves. Commodity price channel: Advanced economy monetary policy has direct impact on commodity prices thus affecting macroeconomic conditions in EMs.*

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