The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
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1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Kansas State University Center for Sustainable Energy 2014 Energy Symposium April 9, 2014 Tahmid I. Mizan Senior Technology Advisor Exxon Mobil Corporation This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
2 Energy Outlook Development Motor Gasoline Distillate Naphtha 15 demand Jet Fuel Fuel Oil LPG Lubes sectors Asphalt Natural Gas Nuclear Residential 100 Commercial Lt. Transportation countries Biomass/Other Coal Geothermal Hvy. Transportation Aviation Rail Chemicals Solar Asphalt Wind Bio-mogas Bio-distillate Lubricants Trade 20 fuel Flows types Flaring Energy Industry Technology Electricity & Hydro Marine Agriculture Policy Market Heat Heavy Industry Power Generation
3 Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2005$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % Average Growth / Yr % Average Growth / Yr % Energy Saved ~500 Non OECD OECD
4 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs
5 Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr % % 1.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 2.0%
6 Emissions
7 CO 2 Policies
8 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Moderate CO 2 Emissions Billion Tonnes Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person Emissions per GDP Tonnes / 2005$ k GDP 2010 Non OECD 2040 OECD
9 Transportation
10 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE Commercial Transportation by Region MBDOE Rail Marine Aviation Heavy Duty 2010 Light Duty
11 Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Car Fleet by Type Million Cars Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon Average Fleet Europe U.S.
12 Transportation Fuel Demand World MBDOE United States MBDOE Fuel Oil Natural Gas Other Jet Fuel Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline
13 Electricity Generation
14 Electricity Demand Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh Other Industry Gas Heavy Industry Coal Commercial Nuclear Wind & Solar Transportation Residential Oil Other Renewables
15 Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity Plant Cost, Startup cents/kwh Baseload Intermittent Coal Reliability Cost* Reliability Cost* Gas $60/tonne of CO 2 $0/tonne Gas Coal Nuclear *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs. CCS Onshore Wind Solar PV Utility
16 Supply
17 Liquids Supply Liquid Supply by Type MBDOE Crude and Condensate Resource* Trillion barrels of oil Biofuels Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater Other NGLs Remaining Resource Conventional Crude & Condensate Cumulative Production through 2040 * Source: IEA * Source: IEA
18 Global Biofuels Production by Region MBDOE North America Europe Asia Pacific South America Africa Bio-mogas Bio-distillate
19 Remaining Global Gas Resource Over 200 years coverage at current demand North America Europe OECD Russia/ Caspian* TCF 3.6 Middle East Unconventional 3.0 Asia Pacific Conventional Latin America Africa Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
20 Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables First U.S. windfarm First gasolinepowered automobile mass produced Nuclear Hydro Gas First steam turbine 1954 Modern silicon solar cell invented First oil well drilled Oil 100 Coal Biomass Source: Smil, Energy Transitions ( )
21
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