Global Biofuels Outlook to Alternative Aviation Fuel In Asia Singapore February 15-16, 2012

Transcription

1 Global Biofuels Outlook to 2020 Alternative Aviation Fuel In Asia Singapore February 15-16, 2012

2 Overview 1. Global Product Demand 2. Global Biofuels Mandate 3. Biofuels Penetration in the Global On-road Transportation Fuels Pool 4. Aviation Fuels 5. Challenges

3 Global Refined Product Market Share 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 29% 29% 30% 31% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 26% 25% 25% 24% Gasoline Naphtha Jet Fuel/Kerosene Distillate Heavy Fuel Oil LPG Other Source: Hart Energy s World Refining and Fuel Service, February 2012

4 Global Biofuels Mandates North America: RFS2, LCFS, Intermediate blends Europe: RED implementation & GHG-savings Africa: Countries beginning to set mandates Latin America: more countries pushing for mid and higher level ethanol blends Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol & Biodiesel No known biofuels program Middle East: Ethanol & Jatropha R&D projects; Algae Asia Pacific: Blend levels vary highly Source: Hart Energy s Global Biofuels Outlook, August 2011

5 Million barrels per day Global Gasoline Demand Source: Hart Energy s World Refining and Fuel Service, February 2012

6 Million Liters Ethanol Supply and Demand 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Ethanol Supply Ethanol Demand Ethanol Supply Ethanol Demand Ethanol Supply Ethanol Demand Asia Pacific EU 27 Latin America North America Source: Hart Energy s Global Biofuels Outlook, August 2011

7 Ethanol Penetration into the Gasoline Pool by Region, 2011 v Percent Penetration of Ethanol into the Gasoline Pool 100% 95% 90% Ethanol Gasoline 85% 80% 75% 70% Asia Pacific EU 27 Latin America North America Asia Pacific EU 27 Latin America North America Source: Hart Energy s Global Biofuels Outlook, August 2011

8 Million barrels per day Diesel Demand by Region

9 Million Liters Biodiesel Supply and Demand 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Biodiesel Supply Biodiesel Demand Biodiesel Supply Biodiesel Demand Biodiesel Supply Biodiesel Demand Asia Pacific EU 27 Latin America North America Source: Hart Energy s Global Biofuels Outlook, August 2011

10 Percent Penetration of Biodiesel into the On- Road Diesel Pool Biodiesel Penetration into Diesel Pool by Region, 2011 v % 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% Biodiesel On-Road Diesel 88% 86% 84% Asia Pacific EU 27 Latin America North America Asia Pacific EU 27 Latin America North America Source: Hart Energy s Global Biofuels Outlook, August 2011

11 million barrels per day Jet Fuel Demand by Region 9 Eastern Europe North America 6 Middle East 3 Latin American & the Caribbean Europe Asia Pacific Source: Hart Energy s World Refining and Fuel Service, February 2012

12 Drivers for Alternative Jet Fuel Development CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY SECURITY HIGH PETROLEUM BILL Energy Security Jet fuel supplies close to home Curb of CO2 Emissions - EU Emissions Rules ALTERNATIVE FUELS

13 CO2 Emissions from Aviation Sector Source: The Boeing Company, 2010

14 Alternative Jet Fuels Trials

15 Alternative Jet Fuels Trials 50% jatropha, camelina and animal fat 50% recycled cooking oil 50% HEFA 50% Jatropha 20% Used cooking oil

16 Challenges High price of mature and available feedstocks Emerging feedstock not ready: lower than expected yield higher than expected operational cost Different infrastructure for higher biofuels blend Material compatibility issue in vehicles (ethanol) Different biofuels quality based on feedstock used (biodiesel) Advanced biofuels are emerging still at lab/pilot scale, high capex needed for economic of scale Higher price compared with conventional fuels

17 Conclusions The worldwide challenge of population growth will really test global energy, food and feedstocks More R&D initiatives to find ideal feedstock Government initiatives in the whole biofuels supply chain are needed to create demand in the market: incentives for biofuels producers incentives for refiners/oil companies to blend biofuels into conventional fuels incentives for end users/consumers to buy biofuels blends incentives for farmers (feedstock) Governments are struggling with funding incentives programs Trade issues and sustainability issues are currently faced by biofuels exporting countries

18 Conclusions cont d Global demand created by public policies very progressive, especially in Europe, the U.S. and Brazil Global biodiesel market remains challenged The availability of commercial supplies of next generation biofuels remains limited (outside sugar-derived biofuels) and we expect this challenge to continue through 2020 No harmonized biofuels quality another global trade barrier Despite all hindrances, countries adopting biofuels are still moving forward and plan to increase biofuels uptake in the long term. However era of cheap feedstock and readily available capital is no longer there. Some countries might adjust their public policy. Various production routes have been approved for commercial jet fuel, meeting requirements for a drop-in type jet fuel.

19 Questions Lucky Nurafiatin Manager, Asia and Middle East