Meeting clean energy goals - balancing the energy trilemma

Transcription

1 Meeting clean energy goals - balancing the energy trilemma Dr. Christoph Frei Secretary General World. Energy Council Mexico, 27 May th Clean Energy Ministerial

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3 WHAT KEEPS ENERGY LEADERS AWAKE AT NIGHT WHAT KEEPS ENERGY LEADERS BUSY AT WORK

4 Climate Framework Energy Prices Electric Storage Commodity Prices High Energy Price Volatility is the new normal The Lack of a Global Climate Framework is one of the greatest uncertainties

5 Carbon Capture and Storage CCS is flying off the map energy leaders do not trust for this technology to deliver in time

6 Energy Subsidies Renewable Energies Energy Efficiency China India energy efficiency and renewables remain priority action items China / India effects remain critical action items

7 Myth 1: Demand growth will be fully met by clean energy sources Total primary energy supply to 2050 JAZZ SYMPHONY EJ/y Renewables Hydro Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal EJ/y Renewables Hydro Biomass Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Hydro and wind electricity are competitive. Renewables account for roughly 30% of total electricity generation by Renewables undergo rapid development, accounting for almost 50% of total electricity generation in 2050 (cf. 20% in 2010) 7

8 Myth 2: We can reduce global GHG emissions by 50% by 2050 Emissions trajectories for atmospheric GHG concentration CO 2 emissions (Gt/y) IPCC Categories (CO 2 eq) ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm JAZZ SYMPHONY 8

9 Myth 3: Universal access will be achieved over the next years Population without access to electricity (in millions) 1, JAZZ 2050 SYMPHONY Latin America & The Caribbean 0 Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa 135 Southeast Asia & Pacific South & Central Asia 9 22 East Asia 0 0 World

10 Balancing Myth 3: We thecan reduce global GHG Energy emissions Trilemma by 50% by 2050 Emissions trajectories for atmospheric GHG concentration Energy Security The effective management of primary energy supply from domestic and external sources, the reliability of energy 80infrastructure, and the ability of energy providers to meet current and future demand. CO 2 emissions (Gt/y) 70 Energy Equity Accessibility and affordability of energy supply 60 across the population. 50 Environmental Sustainability Encompasses the achievement of supply and demand 40 side energy efficiencies and the development of energy supply from renewable and other low-carbon sources ENERGY EQUITY IPCC Categories (CO 2 eq) ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm ppm JAZZ SYMPHONY ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 10

11 Indonesia Norway South Africa Sweden South Korea Brazil India Germany BBC Mexico AAC United States

12 2015: Tackling policy uncertainty The energy sector is ready for an ambitious climate agreement and calls for an international framework with a single measurable target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that enable fair competition and sets a clear pathway towards low-carbon energy systems.

13 Priority actions from the energy sector To meet climate targets, development goals and balance the trilemma a focus on a few key mechanisms is needed. At the international level: Trade and transfer Carbon pricing Financing Regional of technology and subsidies mechanisms integration At the national level: D d t P i iti i ti Demand management Prioritisation of Market design and energy efficiency innovation and RD&D

14 Regional differences and priorities North America Research, development and demonstration Lower carbon fossil fuel use through gas and technology deployment Europe More efficient energy use Greater share of low-carbon energy sources in energy supply Middle East & North Africa Transparent energy pricing to incentivise efficient energy use Increase share of solar and wind energy in energy supply Latin America & Caribbean Regional integration and interconnection Education and information to drive behavioural changes in consumers and increase energy efficiency Sub-Saharan Africa Tap potential for renewables and gas for energy supply Access to energy and clean cooking fuels Asia Technology transfers to manage demand growth Greater social acceptance of changing energy supply 14

15 Thank you Christoph Frei Secretary General

16 Map and network

17 What is the Energy Trilemma? Meeting energy demands Secure energy is critical to maintaining and driving economic growth. Delivering social benefits Energy must be accessible and affordable at all levels of society. fasdf Minimising environmental impacts The impact of energy production and energy use on the environment must be reduced. 17

18 World Energy Trilemma Balancing the three core dimensions of the energy trilemma is the basis for prosperity and competitiveness of individual countries. If the energy sector is to deliver on climate goals and support the achievement of development goals, it needs to do so in balance with the other two dimensions, to ensure sustainability of energy systems. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY EQUITY 18