Mobility for Tomorrow - The influence of trends on the automotive industry. Jeff Hemphill

Transcription

1 Mobility for Tomorrow - The influence of trends on the automotive industry

2 Megatrends in mobility Society Technology Urbanization Complexity "Mobility for Tomorrow" Zero emission Affordability Biosphere Economy 2

3 Megatrends in mobility Society Technology Urbanization Complexity "Mobility for Tomorrow" Zero emission Affordability Biosphere Economy 2

4 Mobility for Tomorrow drivers and consequences CO 2 Legislation Worldwide Powertrain Concepts Worldwide Light vehicles Light vehicle production in g CO Proposed target Enacted target USA: incl. light duty vehicles 2% 1% 19% 9% % China: 117 g in USA: 109 g in Japan: 105 g in EU: 95 g in Source: icct % 80% 56% Combustion engine Hybrids Electric Source: : IHS 2013; University of Duisburg-Essen

5 Conflicting priorities in North America < 210 vs China: 117 g in USA: 109 g in Japan: 105 g in EU: 95 g in Cheap energy ahhhh comfort! Sensitive consumers 4

6 cost in $ Affordability $1,000 $800 $600 $400 Innovation Required! $200 You Are Here! $ fuel economy in mpg 5

7 Affordability Value Innovation in transmission components 6

8 Megatrends in mobility Society Technology Urbanization Complexity Zero emission Affordability Biosphere Economy 2

9 NVH issues Source: 2014 SAE World Congress 8

10 Powertrain optimization Improved efficiency Improved NVH 9

11 Megatrends in mobility Society Technology Urbanization Complexity Zero emission Affordability Biosphere Economy 2

12 Urbanization 11

13 Use versus acquisition car sharing members North America Europe Asia Pacific Source: Navigant Consulting, Avis Budget Group

14 miles driven in trillions Miles driven in the US permanent change? Source: Navigant Consulting, Avis Budget Group 13

15 US population living in urban areas 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: US Census Bureau 14

16 Megatrends in mobility Society Technology Urbanization Complexity Zero emission Affordability Biosphere Economy 2

17 Smartphone or car? 16

18 Connected and complex Actuation and systems engineering Enablers for new vehicle concepts 17

19 Energy source for electricity generation in the US Will cheaper natural gas become a vehicle fuel directly or by providing cheaper electricity to PHEV s and BEV s or by providing Hydrogen to FCV s? Source: IEA, 2013 Report 18

20 The infrastructure race CNG stations Tesla Superchargers 19

21 Local impact Brunswick, OH Columbus, OH 20

22 Alternative energy Battery Electric Verhicle Degree of electrification Plug-in Hybrid Electric Verhicle Hybrid Electric Verhicle ewheel Drive edifferential Current status Hybrid module Electric axle Wheel hub drive ACTIVeDRIVE CO 2 ncept -10% Efficient energy recuperation Basis: Skoda Octavia Increased vehicle performance All-electric vehicle with four-wheel drive Active electric differential allows torque vectoring Electric all-wheel drive Active torque vectoring Highly integrated powertrain Basis: Porsche Cayenne Enabling new vehicle concepts Optimized version of the conventional internal combustion engine Series production Series development Advanced development 10% reduction of CO 2 emissions 21

23 Real world experience to understand our world Schaeffler Schaeffler Hybrid Hybrid Fiesta ewheeldrive Fiesta ewheeldrive Schaeffler CO 2 ncept-10% Schaeffler CO 2 ncept-10% Schaeffler ACTIVeDRIVE Schaeffler ACTIVeDRIVE China China Concept Concept Car Car Schaeffler Efficient Future Schaeffler Mobility Efficient North America Future Mobility North America Gasoline Technology Car 1. Gasoline Diesel Technology Eco Car Drive 2. Diesel Eco Drive 3. 48V Democar System 48V Schaeffler Efficient Schaeffler Efficient Future Mobility India Future Mobility India 22

24 Summary Society Technology "Mobility for Tomorrow" Biosphere Economy 2

25 People who don't take risks generally make about two big mistakes a year. People who do take risks generally make about two big mistakes a year. Peter Drucker