BNEF WIND ENERGY BRIEFING

Transcription

1 28 April 2016 BNEF WIND ENERGY BRIEFING Yiyi Zhou

2 LEVERAGING THE POWER OF BLOOMBERG Since 1981 Since 2004 Over 15,000 employees in 192 locations 200 employees in 15 locations on six continents Generating 5,000 news stories per day from 150 bureaus Generating over 700 Insight reports annually 320,000 global clients 2,500 global clients 1

3 200 ENERGY EXPERTS WITH STRONG KNOWLEDGE AND NETWORK ACROSS SIX CONTINENTS 90 Europe 40 San Francisco North America New York Washington DC London Munich Zurich New Delhi 40 Beijing Hong Kong Asia Pacific Seoul Tokyo 30 Africa Singapore 5 South America Sao Paulo Cape Town Sydney 2

4 PRODUCTS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE OF ENERGY Solar Wind Other Renewables Gas Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Carbon & RECs Markets Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 3

5 COMMUNITY SCALE WIND TURBINE Source: 924D489175F6&selectedIndex=363&ccid=LzDANnOJ&simid= &thid=OIP.M2f30c ab014df cc2d8db46760o0&ajaxhist=0 Insert Date (go to Insert Tab, Header & Footer and Apply to All) 4

6 TWO TYPES OF UTILITY SCALE WIND ENERGY Onshore wind farm Offshore wind farm Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Insert Date (go to Insert Tab, Header & Footer and Apply to All) 5

7 CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE WHILE OIL PLUMMETED GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS WTI CRUDE SPOT $ $318bn $297bn $316bn $329bn $274bn $272bn $206bn $207bn $175bn $128bn $35.76 $62bn $88bn $ Note: nominal dollars Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 6

8 CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT BY SECTOR ($BN) Wind Solar $150 $141 $157 $139 $18 $28 $39 $60 $74 $78 $97 $82 $80 $89 $104 $108 $9 $13 $19 $36 $58 $60 $99 $ Energy Smart Technologies (EST) Biofuels $13 $13 $14 $18 $20 $28 $33 $36 $37 $36 $41 $41 $3 $9 $27 $27 $17 $8 $8 $8 $5 $4 $3 $ Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Clean energy investment through

9 CHINA IS THE FIRST SINGLE $100BN CLEAN ENERGY MARKET ANNUAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT IN FIVE COUNTRIES, $150bn Germany US Japan Spain China $150bn $150bn $150bn $150bn $100bn $100bn $100bn $100bn $100bn $50bn $50bn $50bn $50bn $50bn $0bn $0bn $0bn $0bn $0bn Note: nominal dollars Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 8

10 SHORT-TERM NEW WIND BUILD FORECAST ANNUAL WIND INSTALLATIONS BY REGIONS, INCLUDING OFFSHORE WIND, E (GW) 12% 15% -28% 45% 27% -5% 2% 11% -8% 4% Offshore RoW Latin America North America Europe China Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: North America includes the US and Canada. Some historical installation data has been revised. A table showing how this forecast compares to our last Quarterly Outlook can be found in the appendix. Click here for underlying data. 9

11 ESTIMATED GLOBAL WIND TURBINE SUPPLY (%, GW) Asia = 55% 21% 20% 19% 17% 9% 9% 10% 8% 13% 15% 14% 13% 3% 3% 3% 3% 9% 9% 12% 13% 43.1% 44.3% 44.1% 45.6% Asia = 62% Rest of world Germany US Other Asia India China Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: Nameplate capacity represents the companies' announced production capacity. Discounted capacity represents our best estimation of actual available capacity. For details see our Wind Turbine Manufacturing Supply Model 10

12 ONSHORE WIND TURBINE PRICE (INFLATION CORRECTED TO 2014), E (EUR M/MW) 3.0 Rapid reduction Plateau period Resumed decline GW 115GW 469GW Cumulative installed capacity Global (ex. China) (BNEF) Germany (ExTool) Denmark (Extool) Vestas global The US (LBL) China (BNEF) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), ExTool study (Neij et al.2003), Vestas annual reports. 11

13 H LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY CENTRAL AND REGIONAL SCENARIOS ($/MWH) Note: STEG = solar thermal electric generation Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12

14 CHINA ADDED 150GW OF GENERATION WITH NO NEW DEMAND CHINA POWER CAPACITY ADDITIONS AND YOY DEMAND GROWTH, Power generation capacity additions 150GW Year-on-year demand growth 100GW 15.6% 50GW 10% 0GW % Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar Source: NEA 13

15 ANNUAL UTILISATION HOURS AND CAPACITY FACTOR BY TECHNOLOGY, Annual utilisation hours 8,760 7,008 5,256 3,504 1,752 Capacity factor 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% General Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar 0% Source: China Electricity Council 14

16 CHALLENGES FACING RENEWABLES IN CHINA WIND GENERATION AND CURTAILMENT (TWH) RENEWABLE ENERGY FUND DEFICIT ($BN) Wind generation and curtailment (TWh) 250 Curtailment ratio 25% % 14 17% % 14 8% 34 15% 20% 15% 10% Deficit Renewable fund 50 5% Wind generation Wind curtailment Wind curtailment ratio 0% 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E After seeing some improvement, wind curtailment worsened in It will worsen further in the next five years as the pace of wind project development continues unabated and China s power demand weakens. However, curtailment is much worse in some regions (north and west) than in others (south). To support its feed-in tariff, China levies a surcharge on electricity end-users, which is then collected into a renewable energy fund before being redistributed. The fund is currently insufficient to cover the subsidies and the deficit is expected to grow in the next five years, which will lead to more payment delays. 15

17 CHINA WIND CURTAILMENT BY PROVINCE, 2015, (FULL LOAD HOURS, %) Note: Hours represent full load hours of each province in Capacity factor can be calculated as full load hours divided by 8,760 hours. Percentage numbers in the brackets represent average curtailment rate of each province calculated as [estimated curtailed electricity generation / (actual electricity generation + estimated curtailed electricity generation)] Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electric Council (CEC). Insert Date (go to Insert Tab, Header & Footer and Apply to All) 16

18 KEY BARRIERS FOR COMMUNITY LEVEL INVESTOR TO ENTER WIND MARKET High capital investment Complicated development and construction process Limited types of wind farm developers and financing model Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Insert Date (go to Insert Tab, Header & Footer and Apply to All) 17

19 CORPORATE RENEWABLE ENERGY PROCUREMENT Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Insert Date (go to Insert Tab, Header & Footer and Apply to All) 18

20 COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. Insert Date (go to Insert Tab, Header & Footer and Apply to All) 19

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