STEEL: CHAOS IN THE INDUSTRY

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1 Spring Manufacturers Institute Charlotte, NC October STEEL: CHAOS IN THE INDUSTRY Differentiating between fundamental and cyclical, and what it means for your 2016 budget John Anton, Director, Steel Analytics IHS Pricing and Purchasing Service

2 STEEL: The Long View Steel has fundamentally re-set Fundamentally, steel will have excess capacity for the next five years More likely for the next decade or longer Prices will not be able to sustain sizeable increases There will be cyclical spikes, but they will collapse After a decade of sellers market, look forward to a long period of buyers market Your points of comparison are 2002 thru 2004, not 2005 through

3 STEEL OVERVIEW: Overproduction keeps prices down Globally, steel is a buyers market Ample to surplus supply Short lead times Low prices EU and NAFTA imports restrict ability to raise prices Anti-dumping and CVD cases in EU, NAFTA, India, and South America help stop the declines, but will not be able to generate much increase Prices creep up in prices will be far lower than 2014 levels If your last contract negotiation was 2014, you are due for some large price cuts 3

4 The first and most important fundamental change: iron ore For decades until 2004 iron ore was very stable between $10 and $20/dry metric ton unit (dmtu) As China began to increase steel production, it placed pressure on ore supply Literally, mines were supply constrained. Prices started rising toward $60 by 2007 The price shot above $130 and stayed there or higher for almost a decade Miners invested. A lot. Old mines had a cost of production of $120 or higher Steel Outlook / October 2015 New mines have a cost of production of $18 or lower, CIF cost of $30 or lower 4

5 Ore prices are high, but sinking toward historical norm Nominal (USD/dmtu) Real (1950 dollars/dmtu) Source: IHS 2015 IHS 5

6 Fundamental factor 2 the era of rising production is over Global steel production effectively doubled between 1999 and 2014 Almost all of this came from China China now has too many mills, and has already stopped increasing its steel production Other countries talk of wanting to expand their steel industry. BAD IDEA! If India does add capacity, some will be a white elephant, and some will displace Europe, Japan, North America, etc There is no room for more output. Rising global demand does not require rising output As long as output exceeds (rust + landfill), global capital stock increases Steel Outlook / October

7 Global steel production has peaked Millions of metric tons of finished steel production, annual rate Source: WorldSteel.org 2015 IHS 7

8 Pulling it together The five year outlook (or more) Iron ore can be delivered to port in Australia and Brazil at $30/dmtu, will fall to $25 or less. Delivered prices likely vary between $45 and $60 One third of recent norms Steel furnace capacity utilization is only about 70%, and would be lower if China was not over-producing. A healthy rate is 85% Any price increase will quickly lead to the restart of idle capacity Prices would drop back Buyers will be in control for the mid term, and possibly the long term This is the norm for the steel industry 8

9 Real ferrous prices in the United States are below peak WPIP101, All ferrous industries, rebased to 1926m1, and deflated by the Consumer Price Index Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015 IHS 9

10 The short term What about your 2016 and 2017 budgets? 10

11 Over-riding themes through 2017 Chinese prices are too low, even with the fall in input costs. They cannot stay here forever, but I will not try to call the timing Anti-dumping or tariffs impact most carbon steel products in Europe, Canada, the United States, India, South America, and some others Demand is so weak globally (compared to production) that protectionism can only stop the declines. It cannot lead to a real price recovery That said, you should expect mills to try and boost prices in the first quarter as AD actions are implemented. The hikes should quickly fail 11

12 Anti-dumping Europe has been the leader. Normally it is the United States China is the main target. Also Turkey, Korea, Japan, others. Sheet, rebar, wire rod, plate, stainless, hollow structural sections (HSS) Expect leakage, as steel flows from unaffected countries Exporters who are hit will have more excess supply and weaker pricing. Cut production or drown. Importers will face less damage from pricing, more from having to rewrite supply chains. 12

13 Ore and scrap input costs are way down If you have a surcharge, you should see price cuts US dollars per metric ton Iron ore (Left axis, $/dmtu; Historical source Platts/TSI) Scrap, #1 bushel (Right axis, $/long ton; Historical source AMM) 90 Historical Source: Ore - Platts/TSI; Scrap AMM Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 13

14 Price levels US dollars per short ton Hot rolled carbon sheet ann avg % change annual avg HRCS third quarter % change Q3-Q3 y-o-y Rebar % change annual avg Rebar third quarter % change Q3-Q3 y-o-y Stainless % change annual avg Stainless third quarter % change Q3-Q3 y-o-y Source: IHS 2015 IHS 14

15 Rebar is falling, and there are reports of distressed Chinese prices of $265/mt ($242/st) US dollars per metric ton United States Europe China Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 15

16 Merchant bar may be near the bottom of its long slide US dollars per metric ton United States Europe Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 16

17 Stainless will rise with a recovery in nickel US dollars per metric ton United States Europe China Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 17

18 Hot rolled sheet should be near bottom US dollars per metric ton United States Europe China Historical Source: Platts/SBB Forecast is from IHS 2015 IHS 18

19 Risks El Nino lowers the risk of Australian weather disruption to iron ore and coal December 2015 thru March/April 2016 Mills push for extreme price increases as anti-dumping is implemented January/February 2016 Anti-dumping proves a weak aid. US prices for HRCS fall to $400- $420/metric ton ($360-$380/s.t.) March/July 2016 Ore miners go for each other s jugular. Price falls to $40 or even to $30 Any time in 2016 Ore miners form a quasi-cartel. Price rises to $80 or even $100 Any time in

20 Thank You Questions? IHS Customer Care: Americas: IHS CARE ( ); Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) ; Asia and the Pacific Rim: ; COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 2015 IHS. All rights reserved. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent of IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at your own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.