Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies
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1 Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies September 5, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni Joe Abbott Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies 1 Stock Markets: Americas 2-3 Stock Markets: Asia 4-7 Stock Markets 8-9 US$ Forex Rates: Americas 1 US$ Forex Rates: Asia 11 Fragile Five Emerging Markets Bond Yields September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
3 16 Figure 1. EM MSCI In Dollars & Local Currencies EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES Local Currency US Dollars Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. 2 Figure 2. MSCI EMERGING MARKETS CURRENCY INDEX* (US$) * Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 1 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
4 Stock Markets: Americas Figure 3. EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI (US$) ARGENTINA MSCI BRAZIL MSCI CHILE MSCI MEXICO MSCI PERU MSCI day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
5 Stock Markets: Americas Figure 4. EM LATIN AMERICA MSCI (local currencies) ARGENTINA MSCI BRAZIL MSCI CHILE MSCI MEXICO MSCI PERU MSCI day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
6 Stock Markets: Asia 7 6 Figure 5. EM ASIA MSCI (US$) CHINA MSCI HONG KONG MSCI 12 SINGAPORE MSCI SOUTH KOREA MSCI 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. TAIWAN MSCI Page 4 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
7 Stock Markets: Asia Figure 6. EM ASIA MSCI (local currencies) CHINA MSCI HONG KONG MSCI SINGAPORE MSCI SOUTH KOREA MSCI TAIWAN MSCI day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 5 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
8 Stock Markets: Asia 12 1 Figure 7. INDONESIA MSCI (US$) THE PHILIPPINES MSCI MALAYSIA MSCI INDIA MSCI THAILAND MSCI PAKISTAN MSCI day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 6 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
9 Stock Markets: Asia 8 Figure 8. INDONESIA MSCI (local currencies) THE PHILIPPINES MSCI MALAYSIA MSCI INDIA MSCI THAILAND MSCI PAKISTAN MSCI day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
10 Stock Markets 2 15 Figure 9. RUSSIA MSCI (US$) ISRAEL MSCI POLAND MSCI TURKEY MSCI HUNGARY MSCI EGYPT MSCI CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI 2-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. SOUTH AFRICA MSCI Page 8 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
11 Stock Markets 2 15 Figure 1. RUSSIA MSCI (local currencies) ISRAEL MSCI POLAND MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX TURKEY STOCK PRICE INDEX HUNGARY MSCI EGYPT MSCI CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI SOUTH AFRICA MSCI day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
12 US$ Forex Rates: Americas Figure 11. MEXICO (Peso/$) BRAZIL (Real/$) ARGENTINA (Peso/$) CHILE (Peso/$) VENEZUELA (Bolivar Fuerte/$) 8/26 COLOMBIA (Peso/$) PERU (New Sol/$) day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 1 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
13 US$ Forex Rates: Asia Figure 12. CHINA (Yuan/$) 9/2 MALAYSIA (Ringgit/$) / SOUTH KOREA (Won/$) INDONESIA (Rupiah/$) / INDIA (Rupee/$, inverted scale) THAILAND (Baht/$) day moving average Source: Haver Analytics. Page 11 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
14 5 Figure 13. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: FRAGILE FIVE (percent change) Fragile Five Latest data thru: 9/5/ Brazil (-6.1) India (-22.) Indonesia (-36.3) South Africa (-69.5) Turkey (-65.1) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International Figure 14. MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE (US$, percent change) Latest data thru: 9/5/ Brazil (-38.5) India (14.7) Indonesia (-9.5) South Africa (-18.5) Turkey (-39.9) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. -8 Page 12 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
15 Figure 15. MSCI PRICE INDEXES: FRAGILE FIVE (local currencies, percent change) Brazil (-1.5) India (4.) Indonesia (23.5) South Africa (38.2) Turkey (-.7) Fragile Five Latest data thru: 9/5/ J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. -4 Page 13 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
16 Figure 16. Emerging Markets Bond Yields 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES (percent) Hong Kong (.97) India (7.12) Malaysia (3.55) Philippines (3.43) Source: Haver Analytics. 8 6 Figure YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES (percent) Singapore (1.74) South Korea (1.51) Taiwan (.69) Thailand (2.34) Source: Haver Analytics. Page 14 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
17 Figure 18. Emerging Markets Bond Yields 1-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES (percent) Brazil (4.27) Chile (4.27) Colombia (7.38) / Source: Haver Analytics. Page 15 / September 5, 216 / Market Briefing: Emerging Markets Stocks, Bonds, & Currencies www.
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