CIO Flash Revisions to our 2016 global outlook Jan 25, 2016

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1 CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH The global macro picture: keeping faith in existing fundamentals Recent market volatility, combined with further oil price declines, has raised fears that global growth could slow this year. We believe that the markets fears are overdone. Our global growth forecast remains constructive at now 3,4% (reduced 3,5% due to weakness in single emerging markets). This is based on an-already conservative Chinese GDP growth forecast (6%) and broadly-unchanged views on the U.S. economy. We continue to believe that a low oil price will have a positive net effect on consumption of oil importing countries but remain concerned about its impact on inflation and central banks responses to this. We also acknowledge that, were volatility to prove prolonged or get worse, then the global economy would be vulnerable. Asset classes: still constructive on equities but more cautious on high yield We have made some relatively minor changes to the asset class forecasts made at our November 2015 CIO Day. Equities: After a very poor start for markets in, we have revised down our end- forecasts for the major developed market (DM) equity indices. Details are given in the table overleaf. The end forecast for the S&P 500 index is now 2,080 (previously 2,170); for the STOXX Europe 600 index it is 370 (390), for the MSCI Japan it is 1,000 (1,030). We keep our DM valuations forecasts unchanged, but lower our DM earnings assumptions. DM earnings growth will be affected by commodity prices, emerging markets problems and manufacturing weakness but we still expect developed markets earnings to grow in aggregate by around 5% this year. Looking beyond the immediate future, this leaves us longer-term constructive on DM equities. We believe that the Eurozone and Japan offer rebound potential of greater than 10% to end- for investors with sufficient risk budgets. We are more pessimistic about emerging market (EM) equities. We believe that EM aggregate earnings will fall further in and remain underweighting this sub-asset class. Fixed income: We keep our strategic forecasts unchanged, with the exception of U.S. and EUR high yield. We are now cautious on U.S. high yield, upping the end- forecast on spreads 520 basis points (bps) to 800 bps. The deterioration in energy and metals and mining sectors, together with the financing repercussions for other sectors, may hurt this sub-asset class although we see opportunities in relative value here. The direct impact of lower oil prices on EUR high yield may be limited, but fears of spill-over effects leads us to raise spread forecasts here too, if more modestly, 440bps to 500bps. Other strategic fixed income forecasts remain unchanged although our tactical positioning, as always, remains under constant review. Commodities. We still expect an increase in the oil price over, as low prices discourage production and new investment, but believe that inventory depletion will keep downward pressure on the oil price in the first half of the year. Our revised forecasts are (WTI): Q1 $36/b (previously $50/b), Q2 $36/b ($50/b), Q3 $40/b ($50/b), Q4 $50/b ($55/b). This gives a annual average of $40/b. We will publish a special report on the investment implications of lower oil prices in the next few days. FX: We keep our key FX forecasts unchanged, with the exception of the Chinese Yuan (CNY). We now expect CNY vs. U.S. dollar of 6.90 at end (previous forecast 6.60). We still expect CNY depreciation to be managed in a controlled and well-contained manner over the course of this year. Investments are subject to various risks, including market fluctuations, regulatory change, counterparty risk, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may not recover the amount originally invested at any point in time. Deutsche AWM expectations s are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target will be achieved; Deutsche AWM Investment GmbH, CIO Office; Deutsche Bank AG; As of January 25, CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,

2 CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook Jan 25, Detailed forecasts +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH Macro Framework Strategic Summary GDP Growth in % 2015 Consensus (BBG 2 ) Equity (index value in points) Current Current Last Current Market Nov 2015 Current level Jan United States United States S&P 500 2, ,080 Eurozone Europe STOXX Europe United Kingdom Eurozone Euro STOXX 50 3,600 3,023 3,400 Japan Germany DAX 11,700 9,764 11,300 China Japan MSCI Japan 1, ,000 World ,3 Asia ex Japan Emerging Markets ,5 Emerging Markets MSCI Asia ex Japan MSCI Emerging Markets Currencies Market Nov 2015 Current level* Jan Capital market yields in % Market Nov 2015 Current level Jan EUR vs USD USD/EUR UST 2yr US 2y yield USD vs JPY JPY/USD UST 10yr US 10y yield EUR vs JPY EUR/JPY UST 30yr US 30y yield EUR vs GBP EUR/GBP Schatz 2yr GER 2y yield GBP vs USD GBP/USD Bund 10yr GER 10y yield CNY vs USD CNY/USD Gilt 10yr UK 10y yield EUR refers to the euro, USD to the U.S. dollar, JPY to the Japanese yen, GBP to the British pound. Commodities in U.S. dollar Market Nov 2015 Current level Jan Gold Gold Spot 1, ,000 Oil WTI JGB 2yr JPN 2y yield JGB 10yr JPN 10y yield US HY Barclays US HY EUR HY ML EUR Non- Fin HY Constr UST refers to the U.S. Treasury, JPG to Japanese government bonds, Schatz to German government two year bonds, Gilt to U.K. government bonds *Source: Bloomberg As of 22 Jan Investments are subject to various risks, including market fluctuations, regulatory change, counterparty risk, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may not recover the amount originally invested at any point in time. Deutsche AWM expectations. s are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target will be achieved; Deutsche AWM Investment GmbH, CIO Office; Deutsche Bank AG CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,

3 Glossary Explanation of terms A barrel (b) is the commonly used unit to measure crude oil. One barrel is about 159 liters. Emerging markets (EM) are those economies which are not yet fully developed in terms of market efficiency, liquidity, and other factors. The Eurozone is formed of 19 European Union member states that have adopted the euro as their common currency and sole legal tender. FX or foreign exchange is the currency literally foreign money used in the settlement of international trade between countries. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services produced by a country s economy. High-yield is often used as a shorthand for high-yield bonds. The MSCI Japan tracks the performance of Japanese stocks. A particular security is underweight in a portfolio when it holds a lower weighting in comparison with the security's weight in the underlying benchmark portfolio. The spread is the difference between the quoted rates of return on two different investments, usually of different credit quality. The S&P 500 tracks the performance of 500 leading U.S. stocks and is widely considered representative of the U.S. equity market. The STOXX Europe 600 index tracks the performance of 600 company stocks the European region. U.S. Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a grade of crude oil which is used as a benchmark in oil pricing. Yield describes the income return on an investment. It includes the interest and dividends received a security. Valuation attempts to quantify the attractiveness of an asset, for example through looking at a firm's stock price in relation to its earnings. Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading-price series over time. CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,

4 Important Information Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management represents the asset management and wealth management activities conducted by Deutsche Bank AG or any of its subsidiaries. Clients will be provided Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management products or services by one or more legal entities that will be identified to clients pursuant to the contracts, agreements, offering materials or other documentation relevant to such products or services. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management offers wealth management solutions for wealthy individuals, their families and select institutions worldwide. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, through Deutsche Bank AG, its affiliated companies and its officers and employees (collectively Deutsche Bank ) are communicating this document in good faith and on the following basis. This document has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider, with or without the assistance of an investment adviser, whether the investments and strategies described or provided by Deutsche Bank, are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Furthermore, this document is for information/discussion purposes only and does not and is not intended to constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein and should not be treated as giving investment advice. Deutsche Bank does not give tax or legal advice. Investors should seek advice their own tax experts and lawyers, in considering investments and strategies suggested by Deutsche Bank. Investments with Deutsche Bank are not guaranteed, unless specified. Although information in this document has been obtained sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness, and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein, including forecast returns, reflect our judgment on the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. Investments are subject to various risks, including market fluctuations, regulatory change, counterparty risk, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may not recover the amount originally invested at any point in time. Furthermore, substantial fluctuations of the value of the investment are possible even over short periods of time. Further, investment in international markets can be affected by a host of factors, including political or social conditions, diplomatic relations, limitations or removal of funds or assets or imposition of (or change in) exchange control or tax regulations in such markets. Additionally, investments denominated in an alternative currency will be subject to currency risk, changes in exchange rates which may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. This document does not identify all the risks (direct and indirect) or other considerations which might be material to you when entering into a transaction. The terms of an investment may be exclusively subject to the detailed provisions, including risk considerations, contained in the Offering Documents. When making an investment decision, you should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment and not the summary contained in this document. CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,

5 Important Information (continued) This publication contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include, but are not limited to assumptions, estimates, projections, opinions, models and hypothetical performance analysis. The forward looking statements expressed constitute the author s judgment as of the date of this material. Forward looking statements involve significant elements of subjective judgments and analyses and changes thereto and/or consideration of different or additional factors could have a material impact on the results indicated. Therefore, actual results may vary, perhaps materially, the results contained herein. No representation or warranty is made by Deutsche Bank as to the reasonableness or completeness of such forward looking statements or to any other financial information contained herein. We assume no responsibility to advise the recipients of this document with regard to changes in our views. This document was not produced, reviewed or edited by any research department within Deutsche Bank and is not investment research. Therefore, laws and regulations relating to investment research do not apply to it. Any opinions expressed herein may differ the opinions expressed by other Deutsche Bank departments including research departments. No assurance can be given that any investment described herein would yield favorable investment results or that the investment objectives will be achieved. In general, the securities and financial instruments presented herein are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC ), and are not guaranteed by or obligations of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. We or our affiliates or persons associated with U.S. may act upon or use material in this report prior to publication. DB may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed herein. Opinions expressed herein may differ the opinions expressed by departments or other divisions or affiliates of Deutsche Bank. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without our written authority. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, including the United States, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Deutsche Bank to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction not currently met within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results; nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance. Further information is available upon investor s request. This document contains information not intended solely for the recipients. The information has been considered in investment decisions of our asset management division. All third party data (such as MSCI, S&P & Bloomberg) are copyrighted by and proprietary to the provider. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Investment GmbH, CIO Flash Revisions to our global outlook, Jan 25th,

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