DHL Global Energy Conference 2015 Outsourcing logistics Enhancing innovation or increasing risk?

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1 DHL Global Energy Conference 2015 Outsourcing logistics Enhancing innovation or increasing risk? Introduction to panel discussion Houston, October 13 th

2 What has happened since the last DHL conference? We have been hit by a succession of shocks State of the upstream industry E&P challenges Brent crude has more than halved since June last year, falling below $50 Over $200 bn of spend on projects has cut so far, X with significantly more at risk Significant pressure for efficient production, particularly in ageing, high cost regions Increasing public attention to sustainability and environmental considerations $ Increasing pressure to reduce time to first oil, while maintaining quality/hse level and deliver within budget Source: A.T. Kearney A.T. Kearney 10/49490d/YvwrWeQkln07QlQ7lz 2

3 A.T. Kearney believes that excellence in supply chain can make up to 1.8 bn bbl economic in the current environment Global asset break even prices Annual logistics costs accumulate to > US$100 bn Up to US$ 35 bn of CAPEX expected to end up obsolete Lower for longer? A typical large upstream player holds upwards $2 bn of inventories bn bbl Is this really necessary? A.T. Kearney believes that lifting supply chain excellence to other industry levels is required to make our industry competitive Top 1000 global asset break even prices 1) Potential break-even curve if supply chain is fully optimized 1) Global top 1000 producing assets based on total production over the lifetime of the field 2) A.T. Kearney analysis based on assumption that Oil & Gas industry can apply leading cross industry practice in supply chain management Source: A.T. Kearney analyses; Rystad Energy A.T. Kearney 10/49490d/YvwrWeQkln07QlQ7lz 3

4 To make this change would mean dreaming up our Nirvana? Nirvana supply chain setup Projects Wells Crews Equipment Spares Food & catering Consumables Standardized equipment, labelling and data interchange Inbound flows Shorebases Field supply Individual assets Joint logistics asset pools and cooperation the field provider Industry best practice exchange communities Cross field workover synchronization State-of-the art decommissioning logistics Supply chain optimized according to demand characteristics Integrated systems and digital sharing platforms Rationalization of catalogue and procurement process across projects and operations Source: A.T. Kearney A.T. Kearney 10/49490d/YvwrWeQkln07QlQ7lz 4

5 This breakthrough can be achieved by improving the full value chain and addressing 12 deadly sins The 12 deadly sins of oil & gas supply chain management 1 Exploration Projects Operations & Maintenance Mismatch Specification process 2 3 Over specification Unawareness 4 Lack of involvement and challenge at strategy setting Sourcing process Unit price focus Global / local disconnect Poor contract structures Poor contract handover Conventional approach focuses here Supply chain leaders address all areas 9 Lack of commercial awareness Execution process Poor planning causing just-in-time needs Not considering inventory 12 Not using operations data for functional decision making Source: A.T. Kearney A.T. Kearney 10/49490d/YvwrWeQkln07QlQ7lz 5

6 Transforming to a Nirvana field logistics operating model is often prevented by various barriers Transformation needs & barriers Barriers to change Achieving an industry standard in ongoing projects is challenging JV structures prevent easy sharing of inventories Culture of competition hard to change quickly anti competition Focus and skills lie in engineering and lack e2e supply chain understanding Lack of willingness to trust external partners Non harmonized digital interfaces for material ordering and logistics Packaging and labelling not easy to harmonize across industry A.T. Kearney 10/49490d/YvwrWeQkln07QlQ7lz 6

7 How can Oil & Gas companies overcome those barriers? Do we need a healer? or can we heal ourselves? Source: A.T. Kearney A.T. Kearney 10/49490d/YvwrWeQkln07QlQ7lz 7

8 A.T. Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm with offices in more than 40 countries. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors to the world's foremost organizations. A.T. Kearney is a partner-owned firm, committed to helping clients achieve immediate impact and growing advantage on their most missioncritical issues. For more information, visit Americas Atlanta Bogotá Calgary Chicago Dallas Detroit Houston Mexico City New York Palo Alto San Francisco São Paulo Toronto Washington, D.C. Asia Pacific Bangkok Beijing Hong Kong Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Melbourne Mumbai New Delhi Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Taipei Tokyo Europe Amsterdam Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Copenhagen Düsseldorf Frankfurt Helsinki Istanbul Kiev Lisbon Ljubljana London Madrid Milan Moscow Munich Oslo Paris Prague Rome Stockholm Stuttgart Vienna Warsaw Zurich Middle East and Africa Abu Dhabi Doha Dubai Johannesburg Manama Riyadh A.T. Kearney 10/49490d/YvwrWeQkln07QlQ7lz 8

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