Meeting the Energy Challenge Engineering a safe and secure future Wind Energy: past, present and future University of Bristol, Faculty of

Transcription

1 Meeting the Energy Challenge Engineering a safe and secure future Wind Energy: past, present and future University of Bristol, Faculty of Engineering, Inside Track Event David Quarton, 3 rd October 2013

2 Content Brief introduction to me, my employer and my career in wind energy Wind energy: past, present and future

3 A potted history of my career! Graduated in engineering in 1980 and worked for BAe Dynamics in Bristol designing control systems for spacecraft (communication satellites and Giotto!) Joined the Wind Energy Group (wind turbine manufacturer) in London in 1982 Involved in the design and testing of the WEG LS1 turbine on Orkney Excellent research and learning opportunity in the early days of the industry Joined Garrad Hassan & Partners in 1988 UK wind energy consultancy (5 employees) with Bristol HQ Led various research projects with focus on mathematical modelling of wind turbine behaviour, developing and validating software tools Director responsible for turbine engineering consultancy, software and R&D

4 A potted history continued... GH acquired by GL Group in July 2009 to create GL Garrad Hassan Head of Turbine Engineering Competence Centre, multi-disciplinary team of 90 engineers providing design support for onshore and offshore turbines (meteorology, aerodynamics, control, electrical, mechanical, structural etc) Established team to undertake research and provide engineering consultancy in wave and tidal energy consultancy Current role focuses (again) on R&D and strategy development On 12/9/13 GL merged with DNV to create DNV GL Group Renewables Advisory Division is part of the Energy Business Area and retains Bristol HQ

5 GL Garrad Hassan is a leading global advisor to the renewables industry GL Renewables segments Offshore Wind Wave Energy Onshore Wind Tidal Energy Solar ~900 Employees in 25 Countries Canada USA Mexico Chile Brazil Denmark Netherlands UK Ireland France Spain Portugal Italy South Africa Germany Poland Abu Dhabi Turkey India Thailand China South Korea Japan Australia New Zealand GL Garrad Hassan comprising experts from: Competencies along the whole asset life cycle Certification Type Certification Project Certification DAA Risk Management Training & Seminars Guidelines Measurement & Inspection Wind Condition and Performance Testing Load, Electrical and Acoustical Measurements Grid Compliance Training and Hardware Consulting Energy Yield Assessm. Due Diligence Asset Management Wind Turbine Design Permitting & Environm. Site Prospecting HSE Electrical Engineering Software Solutions Marine operations Project Management Transportation and Installation Structures and Foundations Geotechnical Engineering Risk Management Power Transmission Control Marine Warranty

6 Engineering... Three decades of technology development From this to this!

7 But actually: Design of multi MW turbines is not a new fashion! 7.5MW turbine designed by NASA in early 1940 s

8 Grandpa s Knob 1.25 MW turbine erected in Vermont and commissioned in October 1941 Blade root Impressive design team: von Karman was the aerodynamicist Timoschenko was the structural engineer

9 Spectacular growth in size of commercial turbines Ø 164m Ø 250m Ø 112m Ø 128m Ø 126m Offshore Airbus A380 wing span 80m Ø 15m Year of operation 0,05 0,3,5 1,3 1,6 2 4,5 5 7,5 8/10 Rated power [MW] Source: Upwind + GL

10 The world s largest rotating machines A big blade but not the biggest - Vestas now has a prototype 80m blade for V164, 8MW turbine - ETI is funding Blade Dynamics to develop a 100m blade

11 Offshore wind has started something very big... For AREVA 5MW turbines at Alpha Ventus wind farm in German North Sea 56km from shore 30m water depth Steel tripod 700 tonne weight 45m pile depth

12 Wakes at Horns Rev offshore wind farm 160 x Vestas 2MW turbines, 15km from Danish coast, operational since 2005 Sorce: DONG Energy A/S?

13 The future: floating offshore wind power stations? From Statoilhydro

14 The scale 8 off 100 x 100 km wind farms = ALL of EU s electricity demand ~ 3,000 TWh resource is not the challenge!

15 ...integration is! A new Irish export? A new Moroccan export? Thanks to Friends of the Super Grid

16 How much wind energy so far? - top 10 cumulative installed capacity Current total 286,765 MW including 6,809 MW offshore Portugal Canada UK Italy RoW China Currently in UK, 5,100 operational turbines with capacity of ~ 10GW (6.4GW onshore, 3.7GW offshore) UK wind capacity in 2020 expected to be 28GW, electricity penetration of about 21% France India Spain USA National Grid reports..up to 30GW of wind power can be accommodated even if no changes are made to the way that the electricity system functions Germany In 2011, wind capacity in Spain was 25GW, electricity penetration of 17%

17 Predicitability Short Term Forecasting System 24 hours ahead - allows market participants and the system operator to anticipate changes in wind power, perhaps at a national level Day ahead forecast

18 EU 2020 targets for renewable energy (2009 Directive) Environmental protection: reduce CO 2 emissions (1 MWh wind energy saves 350 kg CO 2 ) Ensure security of supply (70% imports) Diversify energy supply reduce exposure to fossil fuel price fluctuations Create / stimulate world-leading EU industry (jobs) 20.5% 34% target 2011 data 12.5% 20% target % UK 2020 commitment for renewables is 30% of electricity (RES-e) and 15% of energy In Q2 of 2013, renewables generated 15.5% of UK electricity (12.8 TWh)

19 Gap (FTE) Engineers wanted! The EU wind energy sector skills gap High skill level required by roles in all subsectors Demographic changes and declining STEM graduation rates 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Other Direct Employment Operations and Maintenance Installation Manufacturing (component) Manufacturing (OEM) High rate of deployment (400 GW by 2030) Skills Gap? Changing emphasis within the wind sector towards O&M Gap in 2030 is around 4% of total anticipated European wind energy jobs UK wind industry directly employs 18,500 FTEs, supports further 16,000 jobs indirectly Set to grow by 2023 to 105,000 jobs: 55,000 direct and 50,000 indirect - RenewableUK

20 Summary Wind energy provides clean energy, new jobs and security of supply Engineering effort is now being focussed on better and better rather than just bigger and bigger The industry needs a growing workforce to engineer the future for wind energy Renewable energy is more political than ever need for certainty and stable markets The wind energy train left the station some time ago.