MENA Wind Power Outlook

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1 Analyst PRESENTATION MENA Wind Power Outlook Joffrey Dupuy

2 Introduction A few words about MAKE Summary MAKE is one of the global wind industry's premier strategic consulting and research firms, serving the world s leading wind companies from all parts of the value chain from raw material suppliers to IPPs and utilities. MAKE is based in Aarhus (DK) and has offices in Hamburg (DE), Chicago, Boston (U.S.) & Shanghai (China). Joffrey Dupuy Market Analyst at MAKE Master of Engineering (M.Eng.), Energy & Environment Master in Business Administration 2.5 years experience in Energy Focused in Middle East and Africa Publish industry leading wind energy research reports, analysis and databases Consult on wind farm investments, market assessment, supply chain dynamics, technology, O&M, M&A advisory, business & market modelling and offshore wind Due-diligence partner for European and international PE and industrial investors 2

3 Introduction A sample of our clients 3

4 Less new installed capacity in 2014 than expected MENA market to represent nearly 3% of the global market with 15GW on more than 590GW in the next 10 years MENA markets installed 430MW in 2014 compared to our expectation of 560MW - Mainly due to the result of slower than expected development progress and delays in a project in Egypt where 100MW were connected early 2015 MAKE forecasts MENA to install about 6.7GW from 2015 to 2020 In total, MAKE expects MENA markets to install 15GW over the next 10 years accounting for nearly 3% of global market - This base case assumes that key MENA markets continue on a path to maturity The MENA region requires assistance in establishing adequate regulatory frameworks - Some target markets lack policy mechanisms - Government intervention is necessary in emerging markets to establish concrete support and to create a stable investment arena - Open the market to private investors - New liberalisation policies are being implemented in order to attract new investors. Capital need to come from the private investors - Transmission constraints may impede growth - An insufficient or even non-existent grid may slow consistent growth in markets challenged by limited transmission that is able to connect areas with quality wind resources to load centers 4

5 Operational capacity in the Middle East and North Africa at the end of 2014 Morocco and Egypt are clearly leading the region MENA added 430MW in 2014; N. Africa added 410 MW while M. East only 20MW Tunisia 241 Iran Others GW 791 Morocco Egypt 655 <1MW 1 300MW MW >500MW Source: MAKE Source: MAKE Most of the operational capacity in MENA is located in North Africa, which represents 93% of the total operational capacity in MENA; Morocco and Egypt represent 85% of this 5

6 Market share in Middle East and North Africa Gamesa leads the region with a monopoly in Tunisia Turbine OEM cumulative market share YE/2014 Vestas Nordex Others Alstom 3% 6% 2% 12% Asset owner cumulative market share YE/2014 GDF Suez Theolia Others SUNA 4% 3% 5% 8% 36% NREA Total 1.8GW 54% ONEE 11% Total 1.8GW Siemens 22% Source: MAKE Gamesa STEG 13% 19% Nareva Holding Siemens gained market share in the region in 2014 thanks to its 300MW Tarfaya project in Morocco; Vestas did not add any capacity in MENA in

7 Ownership type breakdown in the Middle East and North Africa MENA market mostly still state-controlled Ownership type breakdown cumulative YE/ GW 14% Public Private State-Owned Limited private investors in the region Only 14 companies represented with five operates in Morocco The Morocco market is the most open to private investment with only 11% of the market stateowned % All of the projects in Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia are 100% state-owned; the first projects from private investors awarded in 2014 in Egypt 66% 3 Tunisia will reform its current renewable energy regulatory framework following a new government in place from February 2014 Source: MAKE 14 companies While government investment has dominated, new liberalisation policies are being implemented in order to attract new investors 7

8 Wind ressources in Middle East and North Africa Western Sahara & the Red Sea coast - best development zones Wind resources spread accross MENA with an average speed of 4 to 5 m/s m/s 6.5 m/s Note: Wind speed at 80m height Source: MAKE, IRENA Wind speed in MENA drives development interest in the region and is estimated to be higher than 5m/s across the whole region with very few sites lower than 3m/s 8

9 Macro conditions in Middle East and North Africa Morocco is the most politically stable market Political instability is the biggest barrier in the MENA region Note: Scope of study see methodology slide Source: MAKE, IMF The dependency on fossil fuels for electricity production combined with a need for extra generation capacity is driving wind capacity growth in the region 9

10 Regulatory conditions in Middle East and North Africa Most MENA markets are without an energy regulatory agency Morocco is still implementing an energy regulatory agency Note: Scope of study see methodology slide Source: MAKE A basic renewable energy regulatory framework and target have been implemented across much of MENA, but these frameworks have yet to be utilized or put into practice 10

11 Track record in Middle East and North Africa Few activity observed in the majority of the MENA country Egypt, Iran and Morocco are clear leaders in the region Note: Scope of study see methodology slide Source: MAKE Only 7 of 19 countries had operational wind capacity at the end of 2014, totalling 1.8GW; the region that previously ranked last in terms of installed capacity (sub-saharan Africa) 11

12 Forecasts for onshore wind in Middle East and North Africa 2015 and 2016 to be stable before steep growth through 2024 MENA forecast, 2015e-2024e Steady growth expected in the region (MW) 2,500 2,000 Others Egypt Jordan Morocco +10% Saudi Arabia Tunisia 2,055 1,815 2,165 2,190 The Middle East and North Africa region will add nearly 1.5GW per year on average from 2015 to 2024 Saudi Arabia to install its first MWs in ,500 1,250 1,310 1,575 Egypt and Morocco to grow side by side until 2017 when Egypt will take the lead 1, Israel and Jordan will grow from 2015 due to better government support and involvement e 16e 17e 18e 19e 20e 21e 22e 23e 24e Algeria connected its first MW in 2014; has doubled its target to 5GW for 2030 giving more confidence in the market Source: MAKE The MENA region will grow by 90% YoY in 2015, driven by Iran, Jordan and Israel while momentum in Morocco and Egypt continues 12

13 Cumulative forecasts for onshore wind in Middle East and North Africa Morocco to lose pole position to Egypt by 2018 MENA cumulative forecast, 2015e- 2024e 18,000 (MW) Others Egypt Jordan Morocco Saudi Arabia Tunisia 17,935 MENA to install nearly 17GW by 2024 Development will remain concentrated in Egypt, Morocco and Saudi Arabia in 2024 representing 66% of the MENA market 15,000 12, % 10,975 13,180 15,545 Despite the disbanding of KACARE in early 2015, MAKE expects Saudi Arabia to lead the Middle East sub-region after ,000 6,000 3, , ,707 15e 3,627 16e 4,650 17e 5,975 18e 7,360 19e 9,035 20e 21e 22e 23e 24e By 2018, Egypt will take the lead in terms of cumulative capacity and keep the position at least until 2024 Cumulative capacity in Morocco in 2020 will reach 2.3GW confirming MAKE s expectation on the country to reach its 2GW target Source: MAKE The MENA region will grow steadily with a 25% CAGR from 2014 through 2024, with 15GW of new capacity, boosted by Morocco, Egypt and Saudi Arabia 13

14 Forecasts for onshore wind in Middle East and North Africa The grass is not necessarily greener in MENA Barriers Political instability Low electricity prices Market limited for foreign/private players Limited experience in renewable energy project development Insufficient or non-existent transmission system Drivers Good wind resources Need generation capacity as demand is increasing very fast Diversify the generation mix Save the oil Build an industry in the country 14

15 Forecasts for onshore wind in Middle East and North Africa Key recommendations The MENA region requires assistance in establishing adequate regulatory frameworks Some target markets lack policy mechanisms - Government intervention is necessary in emerging markets to establish concrete support and to create a stable investment arena Reform the electricity pricing mechanisms Will make renewable energy economically advantageous compare to conventional energy sources Open the market to private investors - New liberalisation policies are being implemented in order to attract new investors. Capital need to come from the private investors Policies to be simplified or enhanced. Policies are too complicated to understand, too difficult to comply with, and/or are not lucrative enough to attract investment Transmission constraints may impede growth - An insufficient or even non-existent grid may slow consistent growth in markets challenged by limited transmission that is able to connect areas with quality wind resources to load centers 15

16 Track Record Regulatory Macro Methodology 1/2 Market Assesment Variables 5-year average (GDP ) = 3.0%+ Power demand vs supply Dependence on fossil fuels (>85%) of total generation Political stability Some level of policy mechanism in place for renewables Plans for a renewables tender, RFP, or power auction Functional energy regulatory agency Renewable Energy target Installed capacity >100MW Project pipeline (under construction/planned) <500MW Project pipeline (planned/proposed) 500MW Turbine order backlog >25MW Scoring One point for each variable up to four total points One point for each variable up to four total points One point for each variable up to four total points Scope of study: Top 9 markets according to MAKE s Q1 MOU 2015 Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia 16

17 Methodology (2/2) Forecasting and Assesment Methodology MAKE s forecast model Annual installation numbers are based on fully commissioned, grid-connected wind turbines Model based on four main categories: regulatory framework, macro conditions, project pipeline, and transmission Supportive data generated from several different industry tracking mechanisms and MAKE s vast industry network Determination of Research Focus This analysis focuses on emerging markets of tomorrow that will not necessarily start sustained development until Markets were selected based on forecasted CAGR as well as new installed capacity during this period MAKE s market assessment model Countries evaluated using the same categories as in our forecast model with a more general focus on track record Several variables that influence the condition of each category are analyzed and scored on a fourpoint scale; for example, in the macro category we do not just evaluate average 5-year GDP, but also items like competition from conventional fuel sources and renewable targets as a percentage of total energy demand Categories are weighted according to importance in order to calculate an overall market assessment score 17

18 Contact Joffrey Dupuy consultmake.com 2015 MAKE Consulting A/S. All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this report in any form without prior written permission is strictly forbidden. Violation of the above restrictions will be subjects to legal action under the Danish Arbitration Act. The information herein is taken from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions, analyses and forecasts on which they are based. MAKE Consulting A/S cannot be held liable for any errors in this report, neither can MAKE Consulting A/S be liable for any financial loss or damage caused by the use of the information presented in this report. Denmark Sønder Allé 9 DK-8000 Aarhus T U.S. 117 N. Jefferson Street Suite 400 Chicago, IL T U.S. 225 Franklin Street 26th floor Boston, MA T China Level 26, Shanghai Times Sq. Office Tower, Shanghai T Germany Neuer Wall Hamburg T

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