The Status of Nuclear Power in the World Before and After Fukushima

Transcription

1 The Status of Nuclear Power in the World Before and After Fukushima Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris, France Institute for Sustainable Development, Contact:

2 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1956 to 1 April Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012

3 GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 April 2012 Reactors in operation of which: Tokai (1) - Hamaoka (3) - Onagawa (3) Japanese reactors >30 years (12) 322 GWe 424 reactors 444 reactors Number of Reactors 363 GWe reactors Operable capacity Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012

4 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the EU27 in Units, from 1956 to 1 April Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012

5 GWe Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the EU27 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 April 2012 Reactors in Operation 126 GWe 177 reactors 169 reactors 122 GWe 133 reactors Number of Reactors Operable Capacity Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012

6 % Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World in TWh and share of electricity production, from 1985 to % 15% 10% max. 17% max. 2,660 TWh TWh % % Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC,

7 TWh Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World in 2011 (per country) (net TWh) TWh Total World 2,518 TWh United States France Russia Japan South Korea Germany Canada Ukraine China United Kingdom Sweden Spain Belgium Taiwan India Czech Republic Switzerland Finland Bulgaria Brazil Hungary Slovakia South Africa Romania Mexico Slovenia Argentina Netherlands Pakistan Armenia Source: IAEA-PRIS, 2012

8 Number of Reactors Number of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction" by year, April Cancelled or Suspended Projects! Completed and Ongoing Projects! Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012

9 Reactors «Under Construction» in the World (1 April 2012) Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2012

10 Technology Learning Curves Source: Cooper 2010

11 Negative Learning Curve US Nuclear Reactors Source: Cooper 2010

12 Negative Learning Curve of French PWRs Source: Arnulf Grübler, «An assessment of the costs of the French nuclear PWR program », 6 October 2009

13 Global Accumulated Grid Additions Wind, Solar, Nuclear Nuclear Wind 100 Solar Sources: The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2012, forthcoming

14 Post-Fukushima Reactions in Selected Countries (1) Belgium October 2011: Confirmation of phase-out between 2015 and Bulgaria Belene project with two reactors abandoned (construction since 1987). China No construction initiation in Limiting units per site? Safety audits. Startup of 2 new commercial reactors in 2011 (1,600 MW). Abandoning of CPR1000 series? Acceleration of renewable energy programs in 2011: +18,000 MW wind (11 x nuclear) à 63,000 MW installed (= French nuclear) +3,000 MW solar (2 x nuclear) à Target doubled to 10 GW by 2015

15 Post-Fukushima Reactions in Selected Countries (2) Italy Referendum (94% against nuclear): "Following a decision that the Italian people is currently taking, we will have to say goodbye to the option of nuclear power stations and commit ourselves to renewable energies. Netherlands New build project abandoned. RWE pulled out. Silvio Berlusconi, 13 June 2011 Switzerland Elaboration of new energy scenarios and corresponding action plans and measures (Federal Energy Office) after Fukushima. Vote of prohibition of all new construction (28 September 2011).

16 Post-Fukushima Reactions in Selected Countries (3) United Kingdom Government strongly in favor of nuclear new build, under condition that no public subsidies. 29 March 2012: German utilities RWE and E.ON abandoned all new build project. 16 April 2012: GDF-Suez pushes back investment decision to April 2012: Centrica (EDF partner) threatens nuclear pull-out (The Guardian).

17 United States Post-Fukushima Reactions in Selected Countries (4) President Obama / Minister Chu: nuclear has an important role. NRG, main shareholder of South Texas Project (2 new reactors), has abandoned project (loss $481 million). In February and April 2012 first licenses for new reactors since 1978 (Vogtle, Summer), but chairman of NRC voted against. Vogtle license already challenged in court. Opinion survey March 2012: 77% in favor of transferring federal loan guarantees from nuclear to wind and solar. Now only 1 reactor under construction since 1972 (Watts Bar 2)

18 Example US Military & Siemens Off-Grid and Micro-Grid power next Big Thing for US military (todaysdefense.com) On 8 August 2011 Boeing and Siemens (entirely abandoning nuclear) announced strategic alliance to develop micro-grid systems that reduce costs and increase efficiency. The alliance s micro-grid management solution will be designed to: - implement economical energy-efficiency tools that allow for analysis, control and automation of energy processes - use smart energy controls to provide real-time data to manage energy use - integrate renewable energy sources and storage. Sources: Siemens, Press Release, 8 August 2011, INTECH, 14 July 2009

19 Only Three In Ten (31%) Globally Support Continuation of Nuclear Builds, With Only Poland Showing Majority Support CONTINUE TO BUILD NUCLEAR Some/other people say that what happened in Japan was an unforeseeable and isolated event so that there really is nothing that should stop the nuclear industry from continuing to build and operate nuclear plants to produce electricity in other parts of the world.. STOP FUTURE NUCLEAR BUILDS Other/some people say that what happened at the nuclear plant in Japan demonstrates that all nuclear facilities are vulnerable to unforeseen events that could have a deadly impact on those who live in and around them. As a result we should stop all further plans to build nuclear plants anywhere. Which is closer to your point of view? Base: Have seen, read or heard in Q8 n= Source: IPSOS, June 2011

20 The World View: Nuclear Not A Viable Long Term Option Overall, do you think that electricity produced from nuclear energy will be a viable long term option for countries who need to produce it in that way or do you think it is only a limited and soon obsolete form of producing energy for the future? Base: All Respondents n = Source: IPSOS, June 2011

21 Conclusions Nuclear power plays a decreasing role in the international energy sector: 13% of electricity, 5% of primary energy, 2% of final energy in the world. Further decline is to be expected. Fukushima further increases costs (safety, insurance, financing ) and problems (public opinion, political parties, competence ). Nuclear companies are in deep financial trouble. After Fukushima and following spectacular reactions in the world s leading economies, at this point, there are no identifiable prospects for nuclear power as a major energy technology for the future. Renewables penetration will accelerate with storage and grid developments.

22 We know the country that harnesses the power of clean, renewable energy will lead the 21st century. President Barack Obama State of the Union Address 27 January 2010 Thank You! Contact: Phone: online now!