Post-Carbon Transition. Atle Midttun Dubrovnik September/oktober 2010

Transcription

1 Post-Carbon Transition Atle Midttun Dubrovnik September/oktober

2 2 Why we love carbon so much!

3 Industry and Technology: Types of competition Competency- and innovation-based arguments Market Posistioning Production and transactioncosts Path Dependency/ National Style 3

4 Industry and Technology Types of initial positions 4

5 Anchors for Post-Carbon Strategies 5 Clean Coal Carbon based generators are working to adapt to the climate challenge by clean coal strategies. Hydro the electricity system has a pre-carbon history which may provide strategic anchoring for post-carbon engagement. Nuclear Nuclear modernisation from the 1970s and 1980s could potentially be revived to meet the climate challenge Deregulation Flexibility deregulation of electricity industry has created a more multifaceted business agenda

6 Anchors for Post-Carbon Strategies Industrial Crossover fusion of sectors and technologies that also has fostered new business models. Renewables specialists in renewable electricity generation, making good use of public support schemes have entered the electricity market 6

7 Clean Coal Transition strategies for large incumbents: EON, Vattenfall 1) increasing the fuel conversion efficiency 2) switching to a fuel with a lower fossil carbon content and 3) capturing and storing the CO2 emitted from the fossil fuel Clean coal as a bridge to long term sustainability reflecting deep coal engagement of large incumbents EON: A Hot Topic We Tackle 7

8 Alliance with the Petro & Engineering Industry in Clean Gas& Reservoir Business 8 Alliance with petroleum industry Statoil & Shell involved in multinational and multidisciplinary research project to document and investigate CO2 capture in saline aquafer reservoirs. Following the success of its CCS project at Sleipner and a second facility in Algeria, Statoil opened a third largescale CCS process at the Snøhvit gas field in the Barents Sea in CCS has also become an atrtractive business area for engineering firms. ABB automation systems monitor and control sites, using their integrative capability to control not only the complex carbon capture process but

9 9 Headquartered in Denmark.: Procuring, producing, distributing and trading in energy and related products in Northern Europe. App 6,000 employees Revenue app DKK 50 billion (EUR 6.6 billion) 2009.

10 Nuclear Comeback Nuclear power moderni- sation from the 1970s and 1980s could potentially be revived to meet the climate challenge. Hyperion Power Generation Inc. is a company formed to commercialize a small modular nuclear reactor designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory ( LANL ) scientists. 10

11 Hydro: Leveraging the past the electricity system has a pre-carbon history which may provide strategic anchoring for post-carbon engagement. In the early 1900s hydropower a renewable resource was a major source of electricity both in Europe and in the USA Engagement in small hydro Further engagement in renewables in general. 11

12 Offshore Hydro: Wave and Tidal 12 Ocean Power Technologies. Deployment of the PowerBoy at the Marine Corps Based in Oahu, Hawaii, since 2009,. Engagement with the State of Oregon for a phased development of up to 100 MW station European enagments with ocean trials in Scotland, England and Spain Joint venture with Mistui to develop Japan s first utility-scale wave power station. Awarded grant to build a sizeable wave power project by he Australian Government of Floated on the London Stock Exchange s AIM market in 2003, listed on Nasdaq in April 2007 Atlantis Resources Corporation Pte Limited, founded in Australia First commercial plant is in Pentland Firth in Scotland, where it is constructing a 150MW, tidal power plant Investors: Morgan Stanley (2007); Statkraft (2009)

13 Mainstreaming Wind wind power has become mainstream and is no longer considered an alternative energy source. capacity growth in 2009 was 31%, the sixteenth year in a row that growth exceeded 20% Policy to increase wind to 20% Fierce rivalry among wind turbine producers: For the third year running, Vestas lost global share, dipping from 19% to 12.5%, a long way 13 Iberdrola, which became the world s biggest wind-farm owner by using government incentives and charging above-market electricity rates for clean energy, now operates in 10 markets GE Energy and Enercon also saw their global shares slip, losing around 6 and 2 % relatively Sinovel and Goldwind joining the top 5.

14 14 Energy Investment in EU

15 Solar, closing the gap In 2009, newly 15 installed photovoltaic (PV) cells world-wide produced a peak amount of electricity estimated at 7.4 GW, out of which 5.8 GW was located in Europe Rapid growth Potentially major contributor in a few years Engagement from

16 16 Solar Germany leading installation Spain comming second. The Norwegian solar company REC, with revenues of over 9 billion and over 3000 employees,. Established in 1996, drawing on competencies and resources from the elecgtrometallurgical cluster in Norway the

17 17 Solar power World capacity

18 18

19 Deregulation and new flexibilities 19 Deregulation has created a more multifaceted business agenda parts of electricity industry has specialized in different parts of the value chain. Some of these companies have developed new business models with considerable postcarbon potential. SmartGridCity, in Boulder, Colo., is a fully integrated smart grid community with what is possibly the densest concentration of these emerging technologies to date. It is a comprehensive system that includes a digital, high-speed broadband communication system; upgraded substations, feeders and transformers; smart meters; and Web-based tools available through MyAccount

20 20 Industrial Crossover fusion of sectors and technologies that also has fostered new business models. The fusion between IT and electrical grid technology resulting in smart grids. The crossover of construction companies into electricity supply has fostered a more holistic integration of electricity consumption and generation. Specialists on demand side management have also integrated backwards into electricity supply, bringing more demand side oriented perspectives into business. These business models may become carriers of post-carbon system transformation.

21 The Rebound Effect? 21 From Ture Hammer, Salzburg Seminar

22 The Rebound Effect? 22 From Ture Hammer, Salzburg Seminar

23 23 The Rebound Effect?

24 24 The Rebound Effect?

25 25 OPEN GAME DISPLAY OF EUROPEAN DEREGULATION