ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN FLORØ, 30 SEPTEMBER 2015
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1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN FLORØ, SEPTEMBER
2 International inflation Consumer prices. Twelve-month change. Percent. January August 6 6 US Euro area UK Sweden - Source: Thomson Reuters -
3 GDP for trading partners Four-quarter growth. trading partners. Export weights Q Q Advanced economies Emerging economies Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
4 Yields on -year government bonds Percent. January September US UK Germany Sweden Norway MPR / Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Source: Bloomberg
5 Negative yields in Europe -year government bonds. Percent. August September.. -. Germany France -. - Sweden Switzerland Denmark - -. Aug- Oct- Dec- Feb- Apr- Jun- Aug- Source: Bloomberg -.
6 International themes, summer Greece China stock market crash Fall in oil prices and other commodities 6
7 China Stock market Shanghai index. Daily figures GDP by sector Four-quarter growth. Percent Total GDP Services Jun- Dec- Jun- Manufacturing, mining, construction, energy Sources: Thomson Reuters, CEIC and Norges Bank 7
8 Oil prices USD per barrel. January December Oil futures prices MPR / Oil futures prices MPR / Oil futures prices MPR / Source: Thomson Reuters 8
9 Krone exchange rate (I-) and oil prices January September I-¹ (left-hand scale) Oil prices (right-hand scale) Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- ) Import-weighted exchange rate. A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 9
10 Broad depreciation of the krone Change from MPR /. June - September SEK I- TWI GBP -7. % -7. % -7. % -7.9 % EUR USD -9. % -. % -. % -. % -. %. % Source: Norges Bank
11 Labour costs relative to trading partners Index. 99 = Domestic currency Common currency Sources: TBU, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
12 Petroleum investment Volume. Annual change. Percent MPR / MPR / Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
13 Petroleum investment Constant prices. In billions of NOK. Projections as from Fields in production Field development Exploration Pipelines and onshore activities Shutdown and removal Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
14 Field development projects Constant prices. In billions of NOK Other new development projects Vette, Zidane and Snorre Maria Johan Sverdrup (phases and ) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
15 Regional network Expected output growth next six months. Annualised. Percent Domest. oriented mfg. Export industry Oil serv. domest. oriented Oil serv. exportoriented January May August Construction Retail trade Commerc. Services Househ. Services Source: Norges Bank
16 Output growth Four-quarter change. Percent. Q 6 Q 8 6 Regional network GDP mainland Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank - 6
17 Unemployment rate As a percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted January 6 August LFS NAV 6 8 Sources: NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) and Statistics Norway 7
18 Number of unemployed by age In thousands of persons. Seasonally adjusted. February 6 August 9 NAV under years NAV and above 8 LFS under years LFS and above Sources: Statistics Norway and NAV
19 Unemployment by county As a percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted January August Hordaland, Møre og Romsdal, Rogaland and Vest- Agder Rest of the country Sogn og Fjordane 7 Sources: NAV and Norges Bank 9
20 Output gap MPR / MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
21 Exchange rate (I-) MPR / MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
22 CPI-ATE 6 8 MPR / MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
23 Key policy rate 6 8 MPR / MPR / Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
24 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR / Cumulative contributions. Percentage points. Q 8 Q Demand Prices Exchange rate Foreign interest rates Change in interest rate forecast Q 6Q 6Q 7Q 7Q 8Q 8Q - Source: Norges Bank
25 % % 7% 9% Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart Percent. Q 8 Q Source: Norges Bank - - -
26 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN FLORØ, SEPTEMBER
OIL AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN NTNU, 29 SEPTEMBER 2015
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Chart. GDP for trading partners. Volume. Four quarter change. Percent. Q Q Advanced economies Emerging economies 6 9 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Chart. Euro area. Consumer confidence and expectations
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