Hong Kong. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Hong Kong. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations"

Transcription

1 July 212 Steven Sun* Equity Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Roger Xie* Equity Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 1

2 July 212 Introduction is one of the most volatile markets in the region, a result of the dominance of interest-rate sensitive stocks. ROEs are below the Asian average, but the market deserves a premium to reflect optimism on longterm growth for as one of China s financial centres, but also the low risk attached to its market. Market structure In the last decade, the market has fluctuated between 1, (during the SARS epidemic in 23) and 3, in 27, when China related stocks traded at high multiples. This volatility is partially explained by the market structure. Although the top-five stocks account for only 35% of the market low compared with the rest of Asia they are all of a similar nature. Financials, including banks, real estate and insurance, account for 61% of the market. It is more concentrated than Malaysia, India, China, Korea or Taiwan. Steven Sun* Equity Strategist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Market performance (Index levels) Jan-95 Feb-96 Mar-97 Apr-98 May-99 Jun- Jul-1 Aug-2 Sep-3 Oct-4 Nov-5 Dec-6 Jan-8 Feb-9 Mar-1 Apr-11 May-12 MSCI Rel to Asia ex Japan (RHS) Largest stocks in Stock rank Stock name Index weight 1 AIA GROUP 12% 2 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTY 6% 3 HUTCHISON WHAMPOA 6% 4 CHEUNG KONG 6% 5 CLP HOLDINGS 5% Top-5 35% 6 HK.EXCHANGE & CLEARING 5% 7 HK AND CHINA GAS 4% 8 LI & FUNG 4% 9 BOC HONG KONG 4% 1 HANG SENG BANK 4% Top-1 21% The dominance of financials is partially offset by some large consumer discretionary plays in the market (think Li & Fung) as well as various utilities. These, in theory, should be more stable in nature. is one of the most liquid markets in Asia as well, with a cumulative monthly market turnover which is nearly 5x the daily market cap. Retail participation in this market is also relatively high (about 3% of total turnover), adding retail dynamics to the market. market composition Sector Weights FINANCIALS 61% UTILITIES 14% CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 13% INDUSTRIALS 1% INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1% TELCOM SERVICES 1% ENERGY % MATERIALS % CONSUMER STAPLES % HEALTH CARE % : Stock market liquidity HK Note: Chart represents the number of months that the market takes to turn over Source: Bloomberg, HSBC 2

3 July 212 Correlations On average, tends to trade in line with the rest of the Asian market when it comes to sensitivity and correlations with global or local indicators. This is partly because the market, one of the largest and most liquid markets, sets the tone for the rest of the region. Correlations of MSCI Asia ex Japan Macro correlations Since 21 Since 21 ISM Exports.6.6 Money supply Fund flows.68 past 1 years past 5 years previous 5 years Indices Past 15 years Past 1 years Asia ex Japan.88.9 Aworld Geographic breakdown of corporate revenues (%) Asia Pacific 74 Domestic 33 Rest of the world 26 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Earnings and valuation Currently, earnings are trading above trend growth. The sharp recovery in recent years has been driven by real estate and s exposure to China, a reflection of Chinese earnings which are also above trend. This is one of the key reasons why is a relatively volatile market in Asia. Banks and real estate are both volatile, interest sensitive sub-sectors. Large declines were seen during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 and smaller declines were evident during the 23 recession (including a period when the SARS epidemic swept the city). Actual vs trend earnings MSCI annual EPS growth Nov-99 Sep- Jul-1 May-2 Mar-3 Jan-4 Nov-4 Sep-5 Jul-6 May-7 Mar-8 Jan-9 Nov-9 Sep-1 Jul-11 May-12 % y -o-y (1) (2) % Actual Earnings Trend On average, earnings have grown 1% since 25, which is below the Asian average of 15%. 3

4 July 212 Earnings estimates have actually declined in recent years, with 12-month forward EPS growth now being forecast to be flat to negative, down from EPS estimates of 2% at the peak in 21. Earnings momentum vs MSCI returns 12-month forward EPS growth* vs MSCI Index (%) (%) Momentum MSCI HK Index y-o-y (RHS) EPS grow th MSCI HK Index y -o-y (RHS) Note: Earnings momentum is defined as the 6 month % change in 12M forward EPS forecast. *Percentage change in trailing 12-month and 12-month forward EPS Note that even at the peak, earnings growth estimates barely exceeded 2% for the market (this was in 24). At its worst, a decline of 2% was projected in 28. This gradual decline in earnings downgrades has led to analysts toning down their recommendations and becoming fairly neutral on the market. Since 23, analysts have been generally optimistic on their ratings (based on recommendation consensus score, or RCS). This is after very bearish views in the Asian Financial Crisis and the 22 recession. Part of this structural shift towards optimism comes from China. When looking at Chinese recommendations, a similar structural shift can be noted. Even in 28, when global financial turmoil hit, analysts were at worst slightly bearish. Upgrades as % of total earnings revisions* vs MSCI returns Recommendation consensus score (%) % upgrades MSCI HK Index y-o-y (RHS) Recommendation consensus score (RCS) Average ±2SD Analyst s f eeling more bearish Analysts feeling more bullish *Number of EPS estimates up as a % of total number of revisions in estimates Note: The recommendation consensus score (RCS) assigns a score of 1 to each buy recommendation, 3 to hold and 5 to sell. On average the market PE hovers around 15x, with peaks of over 2x in 26 and a 1x trough in 28. The average PE in the last decade is 15.8x. 4

5 July 212 All sectors, except utilities, offer good value compared with their own history. Relative valuations show that tends to trade at a 2-3% premium to the rest of Asia. ROEs have hovered around 8-1% in the last decade with a peak in 27 (12%) and a trough in 28 (6%). With ROEs not substantially higher than the rest of the region, most of this can be explained by positive views on growth (think China) and lower perception of risk (lower cost of capital). : PE band chart Relative valuation Price level Dec-2 Feb-4 Apr-5 Jun-6 Aug-7 Oct-8 Dec-9 Feb-11 25x 2x 15x 1x Apr PE:HK/Ax J This coincides with a narrowing of the difference between bond and earnings yields, i.e. stocks were expensive in 26 during the height of optimism on Chinese growth and cheapest in 28-9 during times of financial turmoil. : PB vs ROE/COE (12-month forward) : Earnings and bond yields PBR ROE/COE 12 1 BY EY Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, HSBC Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, HSBC 5

6 July 212 Fund flows While in large parts of Asia foreign investors have been steady accumulators of equities (e.g. Indonesia, India), in this is not the case. Investors have, in general, been overweight equities throughout the cycles. On a cumulative basis since June 23, mutual funds are net sellers of USD1.7bn equities, with a net accumulation of only USD6bn in 27 and a net outflow of USD2bn in 28. Cumulative foreign institutional funds since June 23 USDbn fund weights vs MSCI benchmark Funds Current -1M -3M -6M -12M Active Weight Z Score Source: MSCI, EPFR, HSBC Jun-3 Jul-4 Aug-5 Sep-6 Oct-7 Nov-8 Dec-9 Jan-11 Feb-12 Source: EPFR, HSBC Economic basics After China started to reform its economy in 1978, reinvented itself from a manufacturing base into an international trade and finance centre. As its manufacturing base moved moving over the border into Guangdong province, its service industry has grown rapidly. Donna Kwok Economist The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited This enabled the city to survive three recessions in the decade to 28, during which GDP growth averaged 4.7% annually and income per capita rose by almost a third to USD32,9 (ranked fourth highest in Asia today after Japan, Singapore and Macau). Over time, this process has also turned domestic demand into an increasingly driver of growth. Private spending has contributed more to growth than net merchandise exports since the end of 21. As a result of China easing travel restrictions, the number of mainland tourists to has surged from 4.5m in 21 to 2m in 211, outnumbering visitors from all other countries combined. This has boosted retail sales but also increased commercial rents and property prices. Economic policy primer Trade matters to not because of the actual production of exports, but because of the financing, marketing, distribution, buying and selling of manufactured goods. These entrepôt services not manufacturing itself are what keeps the city s trade machine humming. Manufacturing used to account for over a fifth of the economy in the 198s but less than 3% today; entrepôt services now account for 37% of the economy (21% from imports/exports and 16% from business logistic services), compared with 22% three decades ago. Increasing integration with China, through trade, tourism, and financial links, has helped underpin economic growth. The mainland has long been s largest trading partner, accounting for about half of s exports by value. is also the premier stock market for Chinese firms 6

7 July 212 seeking to list abroad, and the top source of foreign direct investment and overseas direct investment) funds entering and leaving China. is well placed to accelerate the development of the offshore renminbi market, which for the next 5-1 years should boost its status as a global financial centre. continues to link its currency closely to the US dollar, maintaining an arrangement established in The fixed exchange rate means the city s monetary policy is largely dictated by the US. Key economic data % Year f Consumer spending Government consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% GDP) Domestic demand Exports Imports GDP Industrial production Unemployment* (%) Retail sales Consumer prices Budget balance (% GDP) HKD/USD month money (%) Prime rate (%) *Average Source: CEIC, HSBC estimates Political structure is a Special Administrative Region of China. The head of government in is the Chief Executive, who serves for five years with a two-term limit. The Executive Council, presided over by the Chief Executive, decides on matters of policy and the introduction of bills to the Legislative Council, s legislative branch. Key regulatory bodies The Monetary Authority (HKMA) is responsible for maintaining monetary and banking stability. The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) regulates the securities and futures markets in Hong Kong. Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) operates the securities market (the Stock Exchange of ) and a derivatives market and the clearing houses for those markets. The Hang Seng Index is the major stock index. 7

Singapore. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Singapore. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations July 212 Neel Sinha* Head of Research, Southeast Asia The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Branch +65 6658 658 neelsinha@hsbc.com.sg *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities

More information

Vietnam. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Vietnam. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Herald van der Linde* Head of Equity Strategy, Asia-Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +82 2996 67 heraldvanderlinde@hsbc.com.hk Devendra Joshi* Equity Strategy The Hongkong

More information

Asian Stock Markets in 2015:

Asian Stock Markets in 2015: Asian Stock Markets in 2015: Expected trends and the role of Asian Funds Passports Dr. Andrew Freris CEO, Ecognosis Advisory Ltd March 2015 1 Summary, Part I The Asian markets which outperformed in 2014,

More information

Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China

Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 215 driven by Mainland China Global Equity Trading Volumes Ex Mainland China Up 5% Mainland China Share Trading Vols Rise 166% in H1 215 vs H2 214 The

More information

Industrials construction materials

Industrials construction materials Industrials construction materials Elaine Lam* Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4398 elainehlam@hsbc.com.hk *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA)

More information

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy If the recent weakness of the renminbi persists, it is likely to have a positive direct impact

More information

ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) March, April, 2015 2014

ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) March, April, 2015 2014 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) March, April, 2015 2014 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com Effects The of Reasons CNH Exchange Why the Rate Singapore on Offshore Economy RMB

More information

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern

Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness, but rapid growth is a concern 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Taking stock of China s external debt: low indebtedness,

More information

Macau Hotel Guest Rooms available (YOY comparsion)

Macau Hotel Guest Rooms available (YOY comparsion) Hotel Indicators June 212 Hotel establishment and room capacities There were a total of 66 hotels (excluding guesthouses) operating in Macau as at the end of June 212, providing a total of 23,635 hotel

More information

Healthcare. abc. Healthcare team

Healthcare. abc. Healthcare team team Nam Park* Regional Head of Research, Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6591 nampark@hsbc.com.hk Carolyn Poon* Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

More information

Financials property. abc. Property team

Financials property. abc. Property team July 212 Property team Hong Kong & China Derek Kwong* Head of Real Estate Equity Research, Asia +82 2996 6629 derekkwong@hsbc.com.hk Michelle Kwok* +82 2996 6918 michellekwok@hsbc.com.hk Perveen Wong*

More information

Overview of RMB Internationalisation

Overview of RMB Internationalisation Overview of RMB Internationalisation Candy Ho Head of RMB Business Development, Asia Pacific Date: 8 May 2013 Why is RMB important? China overtook US as the largest goods trading nation in 2012 China:

More information

China Market Outlook

China Market Outlook China Market Outlook - 2015 2014 OVERVIEW: CHINA MARKET OUTLOOK 2015 The Hang Sheng market delivered -1.20% returns YTD whereas the Shanghai Composite Index delivered around 40% returns YTD. The factors

More information

Strategy Insights. Moving toward an all-market approach to investing in China

Strategy Insights. Moving toward an all-market approach to investing in China Strategy Insights Moving toward an all-market approach to investing in China As China transitions from an economy that is driven by manufacturing to one led by its consumers, we are seeing the Chinese

More information

The Use of RMB in International Transactions:

The Use of RMB in International Transactions: The Use of RMB in International Transactions: -Background, Development and Prospect JIN Zhongxia 金中夏 Head Research Institute People s Bank of China The early stage of cross-border RMB usage RMB as settlement

More information

Fact sheet on the listing of H-shares 6 August 2013

Fact sheet on the listing of H-shares 6 August 2013 Fact sheet on the listing of H-shares 6 August 2013 1. General background of the listing of H shares The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (SEHK), which became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong

More information

Growing Asian Demand In Physical Gold And Its Impact On Gold Prices

Growing Asian Demand In Physical Gold And Its Impact On Gold Prices The LBMA Bullion Market Forum 215 25 June 215 Growing Asian Demand In Physical Gold And Its Impact On Gold Prices Minerals Council of Australia Gold Forum 2 June 215 ANZ Precious Metals at a Glance Awards

More information

An Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013

An Overview of Offshore RMB Market. Nov 2013 An Overview of Offshore RMB Market Nov 2013 Contents 1. Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 2. Implications for Offshore RMB Bonds 2 Section 1 Outlook of RMB Internationalisation 3 RMB The next international

More information

HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund

HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund Important information: HSBC Asian High Yield Bond Fund (the Fund ) invests primarily in a broad range of higher yielding Asian fixed income securities and instruments. Investments of the Fund may include

More information

BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE

BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE BI FOCUS DAY ASIA LIFE INSURANCE STEVEN LAM BLOOMBERG INDUSTRIES ANALYST SLAM122@BLOOMBERG.NET BI , BI LIFEA APR // 15 // 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 TOPIC: Life Insurers in Developed Japan and Developing

More information

Bright Smart (1428 HK)

Bright Smart (1428 HK) Equity Research Financials Bright Smart (1428 ) Hold (initiation) Target price: $1.70 Local broker with high ROE; initiate at Hold Local broker with expansion ambition Bright Smart is a securities, commodities

More information

HOSPIRA (HSP US) HISTORICAL COMMON STOCK PRICE INFORMATION

HOSPIRA (HSP US) HISTORICAL COMMON STOCK PRICE INFORMATION 30-Apr-2004 28.35 29.00 28.20 28.46 28.55 03-May-2004 28.50 28.70 26.80 27.04 27.21 04-May-2004 26.90 26.99 26.00 26.00 26.38 05-May-2004 26.05 26.69 26.00 26.35 26.34 06-May-2004 26.31 26.35 26.05 26.26

More information

Overview of Offshore RMB

Overview of Offshore RMB Overview of Offshore RMB Jaunary 214 Lee Beng-Hong Head of Markets, China Macro background Liberalization of RMB China fully liberalized the use of RMB for cross border trade settlement in March 212 close

More information

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT

UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT 1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1

More information

Financials insurance. abc. Insurance team

Financials insurance. abc. Insurance team Insurance team James Garner* Head of Asian Insurance Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4321 james.e.garner@hsbc.com.hk Michael P Chang* The Hongkong and Shanghai

More information

The Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand

The Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand 35 th Bangkok International Motor Show 2014 The Future Growth of Stocks and Investments in Thailand Mr. Charamporn Jotikasthira President The Stock Exchange of Thailand March 2014 I. SET: Overview The

More information

Cinda International. Hold (Initiation) Target price: HK$1.55. Facing intense competition from Chinese brokers in HK; initiate at Hold

Cinda International. Hold (Initiation) Target price: HK$1.55. Facing intense competition from Chinese brokers in HK; initiate at Hold Equity Research Financials Cinda (111 HK) Hold (Initiation) Target price: HK$1.55 Facing intense competition from Chinese brokers in HK; initiate at Hold China Cinda s international business platform Cinda

More information

Research Paper No. 42 Short selling in the Hong Kong Stock Market. 23 October 2008

Research Paper No. 42 Short selling in the Hong Kong Stock Market. 23 October 2008 Research Paper No. 42 Short selling in the Hong Kong Stock Market 23 ober 2008 Short selling in the Hong Kong Stock Market Executive Summary 1. Recently, several overseas jurisdictions have introduced

More information

Trailing PE 15.1. Forward PE 11.8 SAMPLE. Buy 42 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 16.4% 5-Year Return: 105.2%

Trailing PE 15.1. Forward PE 11.8 SAMPLE. Buy 42 Analysts. 1-Year Return: 16.4% 5-Year Return: 105.2% ORACLE CORPORATION (-N) Last Close 34.93 (USD) November 18, 2013 NEW YORK Exchange AVERAGE SCORE Avg Daily Vol 17.7M Market Cap 156.9B POSITIVE OUTLOOK: 's current score of 8 places it among the top quartile

More information

Investing in Asia s Debt Markets

Investing in Asia s Debt Markets Investing in Asia s Debt Markets Alexandre Bouchardy, CFA Head of Fixed Income Asia April 2013 Content How to Capture the Asian Growth Story Hard or Local Currency Bonds? Risk and Return Opportunities

More information

Internet & media. abc. Telecoms, media &technology team

Internet & media. abc. Telecoms, media &technology team Telecoms, media &technology team Tucker Grinnan* Head of Asia Telecoms & Media Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4696 tuckergrinnan@hsbc.com.hk Chi Tsang* Analyst

More information

Update on HKEx Equity Derivatives Market. Derivatives Trading Global Markets Division 24 April 2015

Update on HKEx Equity Derivatives Market. Derivatives Trading Global Markets Division 24 April 2015 Update on HKEx Equity Derivatives Market Derivatives Trading Global Markets Division 24 April 215 Exchange Participants Global Distribution Distribution of the Origins of HKFE Exchange Participants America

More information

The foreign exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong

The foreign exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong The foreign exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong by the Banking Supervision Department The results of the latest triennial global survey of turnover in the markets for foreign exchange (FX) and

More information

Q1 14 Global IPO update. January March 2014

Q1 14 Global IPO update. January March 2014 Q1 14 Global IPO update January March 214 Table of contents Section Content Slides 1 214 January March* highlights 4 7 2 Global IPO activity trends Global analysis Regional analysis Industry analysis Stock

More information

Further Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges

Further Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges Further Developments of Hong Kong s Offshore RMB Market: Opportunities and Challenges Zhang Ying, Senior Economist In recent years, as the internationalization of the RMB has been steadily carrying out,

More information

Recovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June 2013. Economic growth recovering

Recovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June 2013. Economic growth recovering Research & Strategy Recovery in UK property to gain momentum June 13 Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum This hasn t been a typical recession and it won t be a typical recovery. Nevertheless

More information

This study concludes that Asian investors would benefit from greater global diversification.

This study concludes that Asian investors would benefit from greater global diversification. The buck role of stops global here: Vanguard equities for money Asian market investors funds Vanguard research November 2014 Scott Pappas, Ryan Rich This study concludes that Asian investors would benefit

More information

ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) October, April, 2014

ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) October, April, 2014 ECONOMIC REVIEW(A Monthly Issue) October, April, 2014 Economics & Strategic Planning Department http://www.bochk.com Latest The Reasons Developments Why the of the Singapore Offshore Economy RMB Bond Has

More information

Financial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions?

Financial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions? Strategy / Investment Financial Repression: A Driving Force for Mergers and Acquisitions? International capital markets have seen a growing number of corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) over the past

More information

Russia. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Russia. abc. *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Vladimir Zhukov* Head of Equity Research () +7 495 7838316 vladimr.zhukov@hsbc.com Dmytro Konovalov* Analyst, utilities +7 495 2583152 dmytro.konovalov@hsbc.com Ildar Khaziev* Analyst, oil & gas +7 495

More information

ASIAN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT ADVISORY

ASIAN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT ADVISORY ASIAN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT ADVISORY This Asian Portfolio Investment Advisory service is set up to assist international financial advisory and planning organizations to create dedicated Asian investment

More information

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY PAIRS CURRENCY GUIDE

EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY PAIRS CURRENCY GUIDE EMERGING MARKET CURRENCY PAIRS CURRENCY GUIDE /MXN /Mexico 14.597/12.548 168.8 14.5500 14.2500 13.9500 13.7000 13.4000 13.1000 12.7767 JAN 9 FEB 28 APR 21 JUN 11 JUL 30 SEP 18 NOV 7 12.5500 The /MXN is

More information

Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Friday, March 28, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, TrendMacro calculations

Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Friday, March 28, 2016. Source: Bloomberg, TrendMacro calculations Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Global Equity Risk Premia Friday, March 28, 2016 Global leader-board:

More information

Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate. Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate. Wednesday, August 12, 2015 Changes to China s Renminbi Exchange Rate Wednesday, August 12, 2015 WHAT HAVE CHINESE POLICY MAKERS DONE IN REGARD TO SETTING THEIR EXCHANGE RATE? Each day at 9.15am in Beijing the People s Bank of China

More information

SUN LIFE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS (CANADA) INC.

SUN LIFE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS (CANADA) INC. SUN LIFE GLOBAL INVESTMENTS (CANADA) INC. SEMI-ANNUAL MANAGEMENT REPORT OF FUND PERFORMANCE for the period ended June 30, 2015 Sun Life Templeton Global Bond Fund Sun Life Templeton Global Bond Fund This

More information

Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States

Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States Jan 1963 $17,200 (NA) Feb 1963 $17,700 (NA) Mar 1963 $18,200 (NA) Apr 1963 $18,200 (NA) May 1963 $17,500 (NA) Jun 1963 $18,000 (NA) Jul 1963 $18,400 (NA) Aug 1963 $17,800 (NA) Sep 1963 $17,900 (NA) Oct

More information

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research

Fixed Income 2015 Update. Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research Fixed Income 2015 Update Kathy Jones, Senior Vice President Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research 1 Fed: Slow and Low 2015 Fixed Income Outlook 2 Yield Curve Flattening 3

More information

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014

Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Forecasting Chinese Economy for the Years 2013-2014 Xuesong Li Professor of Economics Deputy Director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email: xsli@cass.org.cn

More information

THE UNIVERSITY OF BOLTON

THE UNIVERSITY OF BOLTON JANUARY Jan 1 6.44 8.24 12.23 2.17 4.06 5.46 Jan 2 6.44 8.24 12.24 2.20 4.07 5.47 Jan 3 6.44 8.24 12.24 2.21 4.08 5.48 Jan 4 6.44 8.24 12.25 2.22 4.09 5.49 Jan 5 6.43 8.23 12.25 2.24 4.10 5.50 Jan 6 6.43

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Stronger Data Lead to Upward Revisions in Purchase Originations Forecast for 2015 and 2016 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: July

More information

JPMorgan Global Bond Fund. Global investing - A less volatile choice NEW. SFC-authorised global bond fund with RMB-hedged share classes*!

JPMorgan Global Bond Fund. Global investing - A less volatile choice NEW. SFC-authorised global bond fund with RMB-hedged share classes*! AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC CIRCULATION NEW JPMorgan Global Bond Fund December 2015 Asset Management Company of the Year 2014 Fundamental Strategies, Asia + Important information 1. The Fund invests primarily

More information

INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP STOCK INVESTING

INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP STOCK INVESTING INTERNATIONAL SMALL CAP STOCK INVESTING J U N E 3 0, 2 0 1 4 Copyright 2014 by Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Lord Abbett mutual fund shares are distributed by Lord Abbett Distributor LLC.

More information

Dividend Stocks The Best Way to Buy China

Dividend Stocks The Best Way to Buy China Dividend Stocks The Best Way to Buy China The explosive economic growth China has experienced over the last two decades may be slowing, however, China still remains a very attractive long term growth market

More information

Room XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland. Oil Market Outlook. Eissa B. Alzerma Oil Price Analyst Petroleum Studies Department, OPEC

Room XXVI Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland. Oil Market Outlook. Eissa B. Alzerma Oil Price Analyst Petroleum Studies Department, OPEC UNCTAD Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities and Development 2013 Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable

More information

Emerging markets (%)

Emerging markets (%) Insights Emerging Markets Understanding the risks October 21 Please visit jpmorgan.com/institutional for access to all of our Insights publications. Emerging markets offer compelling long-term return potential,

More information

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA ICBC: Your Global Portal to RMB Market. July 2012

INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL BANK OF CHINA ICBC: Your Global Portal to RMB Market. July 2012 ICBC: Your Global Portal to RMB Market July 2012 Content General Introduction Investment in RMB Services Solution 1 General Introduction to Renminbi (RMB) RMB Renminbi (commonly abbreviated as RMB) is

More information

HSBC Global Investment Funds Global Equity Volatility Focused

HSBC Global Investment Funds Global Equity Volatility Focused Important information: The Fund invests primarily in global equities. The Fund is subject to the risks of investing in emerging markets. For certain classes of the Fund, the Fund may pay dividends out

More information

German Business in Hong Kong. Business Confidence Survey

German Business in Hong Kong. Business Confidence Survey German Business in Hong Kong Business Confidence Survey 2015 HONG KONG German Business in Hong Kong Key Developments Hong Kong is an established business hub for internationally operating German companies.

More information

China s Unwinding Stock Market Bubble

China s Unwinding Stock Market Bubble China s Unwinding Stock Market Bubble The Chinese equity market is experiencing significant volatility, exhibiting the classic signs of a bubble fueled by changing government regulation. Chinese authorities

More information

December 2012. Emerging Markets Small Cap: The Undiscovered Frontier

December 2012. Emerging Markets Small Cap: The Undiscovered Frontier December 212 Emerging Markets Small Cap: The Undiscovered Frontier 1 23481 The EM Small Cap Opportunity Set Global Small Cap Universe Number of Companies Emerging markets small cap comprises approximately

More information

The foreign-exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong

The foreign-exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong The foreign-exchange and derivatives markets in Hong Kong by the Banking Policy Department The results of the latest triennial global survey of turnover in the markets for foreign-exchange (FX) and over-the-counter

More information

The S&P 500 and Asian investors

The S&P 500 and Asian investors The S&P 500 and Asian investors CME Group s Flagship S&P 500 Equity Index Futures Contract July 2015 Equity Index Futures on the S&P 500 CME Group s flagship equity index product CME Group E-mini S&P 500

More information

Aurora Updates Aurora Dividend Income Trust (Managed Fund) vs. Listed Investment Companies

Aurora Updates Aurora Dividend Income Trust (Managed Fund) vs. Listed Investment Companies Aurora Updates Aurora Dividend Income Trust (Managed Fund) vs. Listed Investment Companies Executive Summary 21 January 2014 The Aurora Dividend Income Trust (Managed Fund) is an efficient and low risk

More information

AUSTRALIA S EXPORTS OF EDUCATION SERVICES 1

AUSTRALIA S EXPORTS OF EDUCATION SERVICES 1 AUSTRALIA S EXPORTS OF EDUCATION SERVICES 1 Introduction Australia s education services exports have continued to grow in importance this decade. Since 1982, education services exports have grown at an

More information

Deutsche Global Infrastructure Fund (TOLLX)

Deutsche Global Infrastructure Fund (TOLLX) Global Infrastructure Fund (TOLLX) A step beyond MLPs Important risk information Any fund that concentrates in a particular segment of the market will generally be more volatile than a fund that invests

More information

CNH Market--A Burgeoning Offshore RMB Market

CNH Market--A Burgeoning Offshore RMB Market CNH Market--A Burgeoning Offshore RMB Market Liu Chenggang from Bank of China September, 2011 Contents I. Evolution of CNH Market II. Introduction ti of CNH Market III. Future Development of CNH Market

More information

Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector. - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar

Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector. - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar 1 Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar

More information

II. Measuring and Analyzing GDP

II. Measuring and Analyzing GDP A Macroeconomic Perspective on the Real Sector: Growth, Economic Fluctuations and Inflation Workshop for Staff of Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar June 2 3, 2014

More information

JPMorgan China Region Fund Inc. Shareholder Update

JPMorgan China Region Fund Inc. Shareholder Update JPMorgan China Region Fund Inc. Shareholder Update November 215 FOR INSTITUTIONAL/WHOLESALE/PROFESSIONAL CLIENT AND QUALIFIED INVESTOR USE ONLY NOT FOR RETAIL USE OR DISTRIBUTION Market outlook and investment

More information

Press Article. 1. Introduction. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy

Press Article. 1. Introduction. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy Hong Kong, 17 August 211 Economic Analysis Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy Alicia García-Herrero Chief Economist for Emerging Markets BBVA Research Hong Kong as an international banking center: present

More information

Highlights of 1H FY2015 Results. November 18, 2015

Highlights of 1H FY2015 Results. November 18, 2015 Highlights of 1H FY2015 Results November 18, 2015 Table of Contents 1. Trend of business results 3. Domestic life insurance Summary of 1H FY2015 results 3 Overview of 1H FY2015 results Himawari Life 27

More information

AmoreG (002790) BUY ( initiate ) Growth beyond Amorepacific? 2Q13 results met market consensus

AmoreG (002790) BUY ( initiate ) Growth beyond Amorepacific? 2Q13 results met market consensus KOREA August 7, 13 Company Earnings Review t AmoreG (79) BUY ( initiate ) Hyerim Kim Analyst Pharmaceuticals, Cosmetics 8--611-91 hyerim.kim@hdsrc.com Ernest Kim RA 8--611-957 ernest.kim@hdsrc.com Current

More information

Eurozone Economic dashboard

Eurozone Economic dashboard Eurozone Economic dashboard Our Economic Dashboard is designed to help investors understand the true state of the eurozone economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future

More information

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. Chris Konstantinos, CFA

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. Chris Konstantinos, CFA US VS. INTERNATIONAL STOCKS: THE NEXT FIVE YEARS Chris Konstantinos, CFA Director of International Portfolio Management October 2014 THE MAGIC FORMULA Change Central Economic in Corp. in Market Bank Policy

More information

NAV HISTORY OF DBH FIRST MUTUAL FUND (DBH1STMF)

NAV HISTORY OF DBH FIRST MUTUAL FUND (DBH1STMF) NAV HISTORY OF DBH FIRST MUTUAL FUND () Date NAV 11-Aug-16 10.68 8.66 0.38% -0.07% 0.45% 3.81% 04-Aug-16 10.64 8.66-0.19% 0.87% -1.05% 3.76% 28-Jul-16 10.66 8.59 0.00% -0.34% 0.34% 3.89% 21-Jul-16 10.66

More information

HSBC in China. Presentation to Citi Global Financial Conference. Helen Wong Group General Manager, President and Chief Executive Officer, HSBC China

HSBC in China. Presentation to Citi Global Financial Conference. Helen Wong Group General Manager, President and Chief Executive Officer, HSBC China HSBC in China Presentation to Citi Global Financial Conference Helen Wong Group General Manager, President and Chief Executive Officer, HSBC China November 2012 Forward-looking statements This presentation

More information

Robeco High Yield Bonds

Robeco High Yield Bonds Important Information 1. Robeco High Yield Bonds (the Fund aims to provide long term capital growth. The Fund invests at least two thirds of its total assets in bonds, asset backed securities and similar

More information

Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital

Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital Assessing Sources of Funding for Insurance Risk Based Capital Louis Lee Session Number: (ex. MBR4) AGENDA for Today 1. Motivations of Capital Needs 2. Practical Risk Based Capital Funding Options 3. Types

More information

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? IMF STAFF POSITION NOTE March 18, 9 SPN/9/5 Why Has Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession? Martin Sommer I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Why Has Been Hit

More information

Finding value in a slow growth world

Finding value in a slow growth world Finding value in a slow growth world Arnout van Rijn, CIO Asia Pacific 6 November 2015 For professional investors only 1 Central bankers game: They have played all their trump cards Quadruple Quantitative

More information

October 2013 - Bottled Water Exports and Imports continue to grow!

October 2013 - Bottled Water Exports and Imports continue to grow! October 13 - Bottled Water Exports and Imports continue to grow! Annualised exports for the year to October 13 continue an upwards climb following their break through NZD1m last month. Leading markets

More information

High Yield Bonds in a Rising Rate Environment August 2014

High Yield Bonds in a Rising Rate Environment August 2014 This paper examines the impact rising rates are likely to have on high yield bond performance. We conclude that while a rising rate environment would detract from high yield returns, historically returns

More information

TRADING CLEARING AND SETTLEMENT OPTIONS MEMBERS. Stock options market. Fact Book 1999 1

TRADING CLEARING AND SETTLEMENT OPTIONS MEMBERS. Stock options market. Fact Book 1999 1 TRADING The Exchange s traded stock options market offers trading of options on individual stocks. As of the end of 1999, there were 17 stocks on which options are traded. All of the stocks are of high

More information

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics June 2 (April 2 data) Highlights During April, credit unions picked up 3, new memberships, credit union loan balances grew at an annualized 1.7% pace,

More information

List of Contents. The year 2001 in review. Major events of Hong Kong securities market 2001. Market highlights. Cash market - Main board

List of Contents. The year 2001 in review. Major events of Hong Kong securities market 2001. Market highlights. Cash market - Main board List of Contents The year 2001 in review Major events of Hong Kong securities market 2001 Market highlights Cash market - Main board Cash market - Growth enterprises market (GEM) Derivatives market Clearing

More information

Summary. Research Paper No. 22

Summary. Research Paper No. 22 Trading of Hong Kong Stocks by US and Japanese Residents Joseph Lee and Joanna Poon, Research Department of the Supervision of Markets Division 1 September 25 Summary On a monthly basis, trading of Hong

More information

Navigating Rising Rates with Active, Multi-Sector Fixed Income Management

Navigating Rising Rates with Active, Multi-Sector Fixed Income Management Navigating Rising Rates with Active, Multi-Sector Fixed Income Management With bond yields near 6-year lows and expected to rise, U.S. core bond investors are increasingly questioning how to mitigate interest

More information

Singapore Exchange. Optionality Opportunities in the Asian Gateway. Mr Rick Aston, SVP Head of Institutions Singapore Exchange Limited

Singapore Exchange. Optionality Opportunities in the Asian Gateway. Mr Rick Aston, SVP Head of Institutions Singapore Exchange Limited Singapore Exchange Optionality Opportunities in the Asian Gateway Mr Rick Aston, SVP Head of Institutions Singapore Exchange Limited SGX Market Record Volume Annual record volume in 2008: 61.8 million

More information

ONLINE TRADING IN TAIWAN

ONLINE TRADING IN TAIWAN ONLINE TRADING IN TAIWAN Online trading is still not the mainstream. In December 2001, only 8.7% of the total market turnover value was conducted online and 16% of total investor accounts were online accounts.

More information

CIO Flash Chinese equities: what happens next? July 8, 2015

CIO Flash Chinese equities: what happens next? July 8, 2015 CIO Flash Chinese equities: what happens next? July 8, 2015 +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH +++ CIO FLASH Market falls force

More information

20 August 2013. Can the dividend

20 August 2013. Can the dividend 2 August 213 Can the dividend d theme thrive in a rising rates environment? Grace Tam Vice President Global Market Strategist J.P. Morgan Funds Ben Luk Market Analyst Global Market Strategy Team J.P. Morgan

More information

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds

Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia Bonds Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Seeking a More Efficient Fixed Income Portfolio with Asia s Drawing upon different drivers for performance, Asia fixed income may improve risk-return

More information

Santander Asset Management Focus on LATAM. Sao Paulo, May 2011

Santander Asset Management Focus on LATAM. Sao Paulo, May 2011 Santander Asset Management Focus on LATAM Sao Paulo, May 2011 2 Santander Asset Management advise that this presentation contains representations regarding forecasts and estimates. Said forecasts and estimates

More information

HSBC Global Investment Funds Global High Yield Bond

HSBC Global Investment Funds Global High Yield Bond Important information: For certain classes of the Fund, the Fund may pay dividends out of capital or pay dividends gross of expenses. Investors should note that the payment of dividends out of capital

More information

Hong Kong Economic Update MAY 2014

Hong Kong Economic Update MAY 2014 Hong Kong Economic Update MAY 2014 Summary Economy Hong Kong s economy grew 2.5 per cent (year-on-year) in the first quarter. This is the slowest quarterly growth in 18 months and is lower than the market

More information

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México Santander EM Day, Macro & Corporates Conference London, 7 June 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation

More information

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing 214 Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Why rapid debt growth in China might be a risk Is China facing an imminent financial crisis? The rapid expansion of credit in China since

More information

HONG KONG S INTERNATIONAL BANKING CENTER: IMPLICATIONS FOR SPAIN. Alicia García-Herrero (*)

HONG KONG S INTERNATIONAL BANKING CENTER: IMPLICATIONS FOR SPAIN. Alicia García-Herrero (*) HONG KONG S INTERNATIONAL BANKING CENTER: IMPLICATIONS FOR SPAIN Alicia García-Herrero (*) (*) Alicia García-Herrero is Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at BBVA and is affiliated with the University

More information

Volume 10: January September 2014

Volume 10: January September 2014 BIST TRENDS REPORT by TUYID TURKISH INVESTOR RELATIONS SOCIETY & MKK CENTRAL REGISTRY AGENCY Volume 10: January September 2014 October 13, 2014 1 / 17 October 13, 2014 Dear Readers, We proudly present

More information