Canadian Life Insurance Industry

Transcription

1 A.M. Best Company s 9 th Annual Insurance Market Briefing Canada Canadian Life Insurance Industry Edward Kohlberg, CPA, FLMI Senior Financial Analyst Richard McMillan Senior Financial Analyst September 24, 2015 Toronto, Ontario

2 Disclaimer AM Best Company (AMB) and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT AMB s PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by AMB from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. Under no circumstances shall AMB have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of AMB or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if AMB is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The credit ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities, insurance policies, contracts or any other financial obligations, nor does it address the suitability of any particular financial obligation for a specific purpose or purchaser. Credit risk is the risk that an entity may not meet its contractual, financial obligations as they come due. Credit ratings do not address any other risk, including but not limited to, liquidity risk, market value risk or price volatility of rated securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY AMB IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each credit rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment or purchasing decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each security or other financial obligation and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit support for, each security or other financial obligation that it may consider purchasing, holding or selling. Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

3 Rating Outlook Is Stable Outlook is stable, but remains cautious Rating outlook reflects limited rating actions Company specific results remain key to rating actions Does not preclude positive or negative rating actions Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

4 Earnings CAD Billions Canadian Life Pretax Income/Loss Source: A.M. Best data & research Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

5 Industry Trends: Direct Premiums Written Canadian Life Companies: DPW by Line of Business (Canada & U.S. Only) Life Annuity A&S Participating Other 100% 90% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 14% 15% 15% 14% 14% 80% 70% 60% 36% 39% 41% 40% 39% 50% 40% 16% 13% 10% 12% 13% 30% 20% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 10% 0% Source: A.M. Best data & research Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

6 Wealth Management Premiums and Deposits Wealth Management: Premium Income & Deposits Annuity Seg Fund-Total Mutual Fund Deposits Other Deposits CAD Billions Source: A.M. Best data & research Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

7 Mutual Fund Deposits by Geographical Distribution Mutual Fund Deposits (Canada & U.S.) Canada U.S. Other CAD Billions Source: A.M. Best data & research Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

8 Growth Through Acquisitions Build scale Add to mutual fund managers Expand capabilities Acquire companies with niche expertise Grow general account Pension risk transfer Life insurers expertise managing longevity risk Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

9 Interest Rate Concerns Bank of Canada lowered overnight rates 1.00% to 0.75% in January to 0.50% in July 15 Economic uncertainty in Canada declining household ownership of life insurance GDP growth forecast cut to 1.5% Preserve Capital Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

10 Oil Prices $105 Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate $95 $85 $75 $65 $55 $45 $35 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

11 FX Rate CAD/USD Exchange Rate Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

12 10-Yr Government Bond Yield 4.5 Canadian Government Bond Yield % Yield Source: Bloomberg Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

13 TSX: 1 Year Performance Toronto Composite Index /25/ /25/2014 2/25/2015 5/25/2015 8/25/2015 Source: Bloomberg Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

14 Investment Income Canadian Life Investment Income CAD Billions CAD Billions Invested Assets Invest. Income Including Derivatives Invest. Income Excluding Derivatives 0 Source: A.M. Best data & research Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

15 Canadian Life Companies Investments Canadian Life Distribution of Invested Assets Distribution of Invested Assets ( ) (%) Category Bonds Total Stock Mortgage Loans Real Estate Policy Loans Cash & Short-term Derivatives Other Invested Assets Total Note: Percentages may not add due to rounding. Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

16 Capital Management Dividends Debt financing Capital deployment Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

17 BCAR Scores Average BCAR Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

18 Regulatory Changing requirements down the road IFRS Phase II MCCSR Refresh Preparedness for changes Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

19 Q&A Canadian Life Ins - Insurance Market Briefing Canada September 24,

20 A.M. Best Company s 9 th Annual Insurance Market Briefing Canada Thank You Edward Kohlberg, CPA, FLMI Senior Financial Analyst Richard McMillan Senior Financial Analyst September 24, 2015 Toronto, Ontario