Climate Change and Food

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Food Beatriz Del Valle- Cardenas Mexico City Government

2 CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCES World temperature has increased 0.75 C. 11 of the last 12 years have been the warmest since Increase in rainfall and storms and longer droughts. Behavioral changes in several animal and vegetal species. Source: IPCC

3 CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCES Reduction of permafrost extension and ice caps on Earth s surface Arctic ice has reduced 2.7% in the past decade Ocean level l has increased 1.8 mm/year Source: IPCC

4 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

5 POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE PHENOMENA IMPACT Warm Periods Crops yield reduction in warmer regions Intense Precipitation Crops damages Soil erosion Inability to sow flooded land Droughts Land degradation Less yield Crops deterioration Livestock losses Tropical Cyclones Crops damages With consequences in food availability

6 IMPACTS IN FOOD AVAILABILITY ASSOCIATED TO ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE RISE Temperature rise: FOOD +0 C +1 C +2 C +3 C +4 C +5 C Complex and localized negative impacts over small owners, farmers and subsistence fishermen. Reduction trend on grain productivity in lower latitudes. In some cases, grain productivity increases on medium to high latitudes. Productivity changes on all grains on some regions Acidity increase on oceanic water. Fishing reduction Source:

7 EXAMPLES OF PLANNED ADAPTATION FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

8 CLIMATE CHANGE THREAT AND GENERAL ADAPTATION MEASURES Suggested dadaptation ti Measures Agricultural planning. Crop variations better adapted to soil conditions. Preventive storage of food and grains to offset scarce crops. Changes in agricultural practices. Increase meteorological awareness to improve weather prediction.

9 CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS AND GENERAL ADAPTATION MEASURES Suggested adaptation measures Consider reordering agriculture taking into account climate change effects Climate Forecast analysis Drought analysis Soil recovery Plantation of trees Changes in agricultural practices

10 MEXICO CITY METROPOLITAN AREA 16 Districts in Mexico City 3 59 Councils in Estado de Mexico Population: 20.1 millions Vehicles: 3.75 millions Industries: 35,000 Water: 65 m 3 /s Trip per day: 28.3 millions Oxygen 23% less

11 MEXICO CITY Surface: km 2 Conservation Soil : 59% Population: 8.7 millions Homes: 2.54 millions Vehicles: 2.47 millions Trips per day:12 millions Water: 32 m 3 /s Solid waste: 12 thousand tons per day

12 ACUMULATED RAINFALL PER YEAR, MEXICO CITY, Milímetros por año YEAR

13 TEMPERATURE AVERAGE IN MEXICO CITY Temperature ( C) Temperature average and minimum at Tacubaya Observatory from 1900 to 2007

14 TEMPERATURE AVERAGE IN MEXICO CITY Mexico City has undergone a process of fast heating due to a great extent of urbanization and the Heat Island effect, also, because of the man made global warming caused by the high GHG emissions. In the last thirty years, changes in Mexico City's temperature have occurred, being now, almost 2 degrees Celsius hotter than it was at the middle of the Seventies, and almost 4 degrees Celsius hotter than it was at the beginning of the last century.

15 MEXICO CITY GHG EMISSIONS INVENTORY 2007 México City: 37 million tons of CO 2 equivalent Solid Waste 11% Comercial 6% Public Sector 5% Rural 0.5% Transport 43% Mexico City Metropolitan Area: 60 million tons of CO 2 eq 9.1% of national emissions Residential 13% Industry 22% Mexico, as a country, is rated No. 12 emitter of GHG in the world and contributes with 1.5% of these emissions.

16 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY PROGRAMS JIERARCHY AND ADMINISTRATION, IN MEXICO CITY Mexico City s General Development Program Green Plan Environmental Agenda: Sector Programming Air Quality Improve Program Integral Management Program for Solid Waste Sustainable Water Management for Mexico City Program, Mexico City Climate Action Program

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18 CLIMATE ACTION PROGRAM ADAPTATION ACTIONS RELATED TO FOOD Protection and recovery of native crops and flora Soil and water conservation on agricultural land for rural development Transgenic agriculture monitoring and fostering organic production Soil recovery for agricultural development

19 PROTECTION AND RECOVERY OF NATIVE CROPS AND FLORA Benefits Environmental Social Short Term 3 years Long Term 20 years Identification of native Consolidate native species species Recovery of cultural and Sources of food supply productive traditions sufficiency Economic Alternatives of employment for peasants Creation of jobs, productive costs management and local market consolidation

20 SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION ON AGRICULTURAL LAND FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT Benefits Environmental Middle Term 6 years Climate regulation and modulation, biodiversity and soil protection and restoration. Long Term 20 years Impact reduction of natural phenomena. Integral soil and water management. Social Increase of productive soil. Agro-foresting development. Economic Family incomes. Productive diversity.

21 TRANSGENIC AGRICULTURE MONITORING AND FOSTERING ORGANIC PRODUCTION Benefits Environmental Social Economic Middle Term 6 years Identification and control of genetically modified crops. Settling and protection of crops. Identification of investment channels and cost reduction. Long Term 20 years Productive migration of transgenic crops for genetically invariant ones. Defense of traditions and productive processes. Alimentary health. Consolidate Program.

22 SOIL RECOVERY FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT Benefits Short Term 3 years Mid Term 6 years Environmental Plague reduction Soil recovery, urban sprawl reduction Social Fostering backyard Jobs creation farming activities Economic Family income

23 Thank you for your attention! Beatriz del Valle-Cardenas Mexico City Government