Living with Climate Change Helping People Adapt to the New ILWS

Transcription

1 Living with Climate Change Helping People Adapt to the New Normal Kevin Parton ILWS

2 Overview 1. Climate Change and Climate Variability 2. Three Projects 3. Conclusions

3 1. Climate Change and Climate Variability

4 11Cli 1.1 Climate Change

5 Change in Temperature 2030

6 Rainfall Change 2030

7 Trends in Emissions

8 Climate change policy will be much more important to most businesses over a normal planning horizon than climate change itself

9 1.2 Climate Variability

10 Murray Darling Basin Rainfall Variability (Source: Crean)

11 Australian Rainfall Variability Compared with Other Countries (Source: Crean)

12 Twelve Strongest El Nino

13 Twelve Strongest La Nina

14 Drought is a Manifestation of Climate Variability Recent drought period compared with previous drought periods (state level data): Annual average rainfall Proportion of area affected by exceptionally low rainfall Proportion of area affected by exceptionally low moisture

15 Temperatures MDB (Source: Crean)

16 Climate Change and Climate Variability Combined (Hennessy et al. 2008) Exceptionally low rainfall Exceptionally low soil moisture Area affected Return periods (%) a (yrs) b Area affected Return periods (%) a (yrs) b mean mean Qland NSW Vic & Tas MD Basin S.West WA

17 In regional areas of Australia it is difficult to disentangle the separate impacts of climate change and climate variability. Of the variables analysed, temperature shows thestrongest trend.

18 2. Three Projects Extreme weather and population health hin Australia Heatwaves, population health, and emergency management in Australia a qualitative study Integrated assessment of the effect of climate change for Australian rural and remote regions and adaptive strategy exploration

19 Project 1: Extreme weather and population health in Australia 1. Analyse the relationship between extreme weather and human mortality and morbidity 2. Provide important new policy directions i for government and the local community in the establishment of a heat related health early warning system.

20 Project 2: Heatwaves, population health, and emergency management in Australia aa qualitative study 1. Investigate attitudes and bh behaviours of individuals and groups that provide care or emergency assistance to vulnerable persons during heatwaves. 2. Identification and analysis of key themes related to emergency preparedness and response to heatwaves.

21 Project 2: Heatwaves, population health, and emergency management in Australia a qualitative study 3. Gain new insights into risk factors related to heatwaves. 4. Reduce the social/health disadvantage, associated withheatwavesheatwaves 5. Develop an Emergency Management Planning for Heatwaves as part of a Heat Health Warning System.

22 Project 3: Integrated Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change for Australian Rural and Remote Regions and Adaptive Strategy Exploration 1. Assess the effect of climate change for Australian rural and remote regions 2. Identify groups at the highest risk of climate change in those regions 3. Develop a coherent and consistent approach for defining risks from climate change 4. Explore adaptive strategies

23 Project 3: Integrated Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change for Australian Rural and Remote Regions and Adaptive Strategy Exploration 5. Raise public awareness 6. Reduce the social/health disadvantage associated with climate change 7. Inform policy development and analysis of State and Federal governments as well as development plans of local councils and communities.

24 1. Define baseline 2. Climate change and development climate change policy scenario 3. Local Development Scenario 1 4. Assessment of current adaptive and mitigation capacity 5. Measures to enhance adaptive and mitigation capcity 6. Local Development p Scenario 2

25 1. Defining baseline development scenario How is the region likely to develop by 2030 without any climate change impacts? Possible Indicators Population growth Economic development Land-use and land cover change Technological development Social trends Health trends GHG emissions from involved sectors 3. Local Development Scenario 1 2. Climate change and climate change policy What are the impacts of climate change and likely climate change policy on the identified development scenarios? What are the measures needed for adaptation to climate change? Are there opportunities to shape development goals in a way to contribute to mitigation of climate change? Possible Indicators Precipitation, temperature changes Extreme weather events (drought, flood, hurricanes) Impacts on natural resources (land-use, biodiversity, water) Health impacts (eg mental health, emergency facilities, respiratory, heat stress, etc.) Changes in infrastructure Increases in renewable energy generation Penetration of low emission and clean technologies, and energy efficiency Increase in recycling and re-use 4. Assessment of current adaptive and mitigation capacity 5. Measures to enhance adaptive and mitigation capacity 6. Local Development Scenario 2 Assessment of enhanced adaptive and mitigation capacity and of costs involved in achieving a more sustainable outcome

26 Source: Sietchiping

27 Source: Sietchiping i

28 Source: Sietchiping

29 Source: Sietchiping

30 3. Conclusions

31 By Group within the population: Increase ground cover eg Farmers Improve water use efficiency Better communication among farmers about innovationsi Enlist more farmers in environmental restoration Invest in wind farms

32 By Strategy: eg Strategies for Population Retention Encourage new business Disseminateinformation information about business exemplars Improve health hcare Encourage tree changers

33 Thank You Any questions or comments?