Climate Change, Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean and in West Africa. What strategies?

Transcription

1 Climate Change, Water and Food Security in the Mediterranean and in West Africa What strategies? Guillaume Benoit General Engineer, permanent member of CGAAER (France) Member of the international panel of experts in CGDA (Morocco) and of the panel of experts on sustainable agriculture and food in the FAO Coordinator/rapporteur for the SESAME Seminars Chair of the FWP Water and Food Security Working Group A North/South cross- analysis from the experience developed in the Water and Food Security Seminars in the Mediterranean (SESAME) 2013, 2014 et 2015 WWF7 Korea Regional Process (Mediterranean) 2015, April 14

2 From WWF 6 (Marseille 2012) to COP 21 (Paris 2015) WWF6 Marseille 2012 SESAME 1, 2 and 3 WWF7 (>) COP 21 2

3 Climate Change, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) and water : the big issues Climate Change => majors risks of increasing food insecurity (IPCC) Yield decline Breakage caused in food systems by droughts, floods.. Endangering rural livelyhoods due to insufficient access to irrigation water and declining agricultural productivity Soaring world prices 600 more millions hungry by 2050? Migrations, instabilities Global Challenge: combining adaptation, mitigation and growth/ food security Feed 9,5 billion in 2050, = need «Climate smart agriculture» Eradicate hunger and poverty, Create jobs (300 million in Africa) Maintain stability 3

4 The Mediterranean and West Africa: Climate change world hotspots Already a calamity in Africa and South Mediterranean: too much or not enough water, crop losses Less water / rainfall and run-off More droughts and floods More water needs for Agriculture Problems in: agricultural productivity, access to water for irrigation Mutant Terroirs, migration, instability 4

5 No Climate solution without the AFOLU (agriculture, forest and soils) contribution to mitigation Acting on the 3 mitigation levers : reducing emissions + C storage + substitution (bio-products) = 20 to 60% of the global potential by 2030 (IPCC 2014) Two global priorities: restore degraded lands back up and dynamically manage the forest / timber industry Acting on a plurality of levers: Ex France (CGAAER, 2014) AFOLU = ¼ of the 2030 national goal for mitigation (-40%) - Agro-ecological transition / Mt CO2 - Preserving farmland and grassland / 8-10 Mt CO2 - Reducing food waste / 8-10 Mt CO2 - Forest Storage / 3-5 Mt CO2 - Bioproducts substitution (wood,bioenergy..) / Mt CO2 But no food security nor mitigation without adaptation, and therefore without better water management 5

6 SESAME : a North/South reflection platform (lead : CGDA, CGAAER, AFD ) Food security /resource management / sustainable territory development Sesame 1 (water) Montpellier, 2013 Sesame 2 (family agriculture) Meknès, 2014 Sesame 3 (climate change), Paris,

7 3 sub-regions representative of global issues and diversity North Mediterranean: an abundant water resource agriculture: 2-10% of jobs stable population South Mediterranean: physical water scarcity agriculture : 20-40% of jobs average population growth (+ 119 millions > 2050) West Africa: economic water scarcity agriculture : 60% of jobs high population growth (to double by 2050) 7

8 Water and the Mediterranean : a North/South Asymmetry North (incl. Portugal) : 90% of water resource Water demand = 138 km3 = 13% of conventional potential water resource East : shared watersheds South (incl. Jordan) : 10% of water resources Water demand = 116 km3 = 105% of conventional potential water resource South Mediterranean =60% of the water-poor global population (Source Margat 2012) scarcity : 64 million in 2010, 287 million in 2050?

9 Serious ecological + socio-economic + food fragility climate change + Non sustainable waters + Rural poverty + Erosion + Dam siltation Cereal imports, MENA region (Mt) Poverty ratio (2$/day) + Dependance on food imports = high vulnerabilty 9

10 What to do? What possible answers? 1/ Store water, develop and enhance irrigation 2/ Retain water and revitalize soils Succeed in implementing the agro-ecological transition (rainfed agriculture and rangeland) 3/ Achieve (sustainable) territorial development Mute towards climate-smart territories 10

11 1. Store water, develop and enhance irrigation Irrigation is important for: production, income, development, stability Global average goals : double incomes, trebble production Tunisia: 8%UAA = 40% national prod.; Spain: 16%UAA = 60% national prod. Senegal River Valley: fixing population / stopping migration, «one of the most important issues for economic development» adaptation to climate change Low irrigation rate in West Africa = High vulnerability to Climate Change! Climate Change = increased need for storage Climate Change = increased need for water (for irrigated systems, for rainfed, for transition from rainfed to irrigated) Global investissement needs for adaptation (storage and irrigation) : 225 $ billion by 2030 (IPCC) 11

12 1. Irrigation : large room for improvement in the Mediterranean / Africa Important water resource can be potentially mobilized, e.g. in: West Africa: e.g. Senegal River Valley (VFS) M. Ndao : «an immense development potential» M. Diop : «here, a mere 5 billion m3 are mobilized and 15 are lost to the sea» North Mediterranean: e.g. Spain/Ebro River Valley. Irrigation is considered as essential (adaptation, food security, commercial balance, jobs) : Supply/demand policies set out to achieve a triple objective for sustainability on : ecology, agro-food and energy Demand : localized irrigation ratio raised from 17 to 40%, withdrawals decreased from hm3 to hm3 Supply : 2030 Storage goals: hm3. Savings on runoff - 35%/ hm3, 21% now 2030 Irrigation goals: increase consumptions (30%), increase UAA from 1 to 1.4 Mha, secure ha shifting to high efficiency systems But also obstacles: funding, lack of awareness on climate impacts and on the role of AFOLU and importance of water storage (e.g. France)... 12

13 1. Irrigation: room for improvement also in the Southern Mediterranean «the answer to Climate Change: first improve resource mobilization» (F Chehat, DG INRA Algéria) : dams, long distance transfers, reuse ( m3 made to date), irrigation upgrade, desalination plants for 60 coastal cities. Full Supplemental Irrigation and Deficit supplemental Irrigation Think of water productivity rather than soil productivity! (M Solh, DG ICARDA) 13

14 Egypt (Sharkia Province) 1. Irrigation: room for improvement also in the Southern Mediterranean Water productivity was increased by 72% on ha in 3 years 14

15 2/ Retain water Revitalize soils Succeed into implementing agro-ecological transition Restore degraded lands = Conserve and harvest water, Revitalize soils A huge issue: global, for Africa and for the Mediterranean: Adaptation / resilience Productivity / jobs mitigation / C storage Portugal (photos by D Crespo) 15

16 2/ Case: Restoring degraded lands in Portugal SBLRPP «Sown Biodiverse Legume Rich Permanent Pastures» More than ha revitalized (Portugal, Spain) Productivity & Carbon sequestration into soils were doubled! Major Co-bénéfits are offered to water, biodiversity, landscapes (photos by D Crespo) 16

17 2. Water Harvesting South Mediterranean Photos: ICARDA - water evaporated + water transpirated + Carbon into soils - flooding risks = + productivity + resilience/adaptation + mitigation West Africa Zaï, stone bunds, half moons Yields up to + 120% (Burkina, Fasso, 2007) 17

18 2. Conservation/Revitalization water / soils Farm at Shoul (Rabat, Morocco) 18

19 2. Conservation Agriculture / Direct sowing Direct sowing techniques for wheat Case: Morocco (Settat) Yields : + 30 to + 40% Water efficiency : + 60% Energy : - 70% Carbon Sequestration: 1 to 4 t CO2/ha Organic matter + 3 to +14% But yet only used on ha Source : INRA Maroc Direct sowing techniques spread also in Syria and Irak 19

20 3. Muting towards Climate-Smart Territories (CST) A necessary paradigm shift Situation / BAU scenario Climate-Smart Territories Agriculture Small size (South) Modern agr Agr. lands Waste Soils/ agr. Water Forest/ wood Visions & Policies Subsistence farming Rural poverty, low productivity Losses when harvesting Environmental impacts Loss due to urban sprawl (North..) Waste of: food, garbage,azote Erosion, desertification, siltation Poor water mobilization (W Africa) Overexploitation (S Med) Poor valorisation (South) Primarily urban, using silos, versatile, short term, top down Blue water; supply or demand / 2050 : high yield decrease and High GHG emissions, instabilities Strcturation / aggregation, access Food processing Diversification for rural economics Agro-ecological transition Land preservation, densification Circular economics Living soils, agro-ecology, C lockin water : storage (surface, aquifers, soils), mobilisation / sustainable management. Productivity: water, soils and forest/wood Policies : pro family agriculture proactive, climate smart Territorial projects Blue and green, supply and demand / Adaptation, mitigation, development 20 High productivity/yields, C lockin

21 4. Conclusion : what messages from WWF7 to COP 21? 1. Incorporate Food-Security/Adapation/Water issues into the COP21 agreement because: Climate Change/Water/Agricultural Systems = Food Ccrisis, Instabilities AFOLU = part of global climate solution (20 to 60% potential mitigation by 2030) only if provided successful adaptation/ food security / better blue and green Water Management 2. Handle water (blue and green) and soils into Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA = adaptation + mitigation + local and global food security) Climate change = new strategic importance of water storage and irrigation and of water harvesting / agro-ecological transition («living soils») : resilience tools, risk management Combine water and land productivity progress (+ 60% by 2050) and resource water and soils sustainability (overexploitation of aquifers, erosion/desertification, urban sprawl problems) 3. New «climate smart» and inclusive Strategies and Policies Taking into CSA and development objectives into adaptation/mitigation/water strategies Mobilizing all actors, shifting everywhere to Climate Smart Territories : Family Agricultural Policies (including food processing) ; Agricultural research and innovation, Territory Projects / Contracting with actors (rural communities ) / Payments for environmental services ; Investments. 21

22 Thanks for your attention To know more: SESAME 1: SESAME 2: SESAME 3 (climate change): Report by CCAAER «the possible contributions of Agriculture and Forestry in the fight against Climate Change - CGAAER» (in French - February 2015) 22