COMPETITION, SUSTAINABILITY, INTEGRATION

Transcription

1 1 of 16 EMERGING TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY : COMPETITION, SUSTAINABILITY, INTEGRATION 6th Emerging Europe Energy Summit November 4, 2010 İstanbul Bora Şekip Güray Directorate General for Energy MENR, TURKEY

2 Electricity Trends in Turkey and EU Past Ten Years. Electricity supply growth : Turkey : 64 %, largely coupled to economic growth EU 27 : 6 %, decoupling from economic growth 85 GW 145 GW 116 GW 94 GW 88 GW 45 GW Electricity Supply Mix : Reduction in carbon intensity through new capacity additions Turkey : mainly natural gas and hydro, wind penetration in the past 3 years EU-27 : mainly natural gas and wind EURELECTRIC, 2010 ; EUROSTAT, 2010 ; TEİAŞ of 16

3 3 of 16 ALTINKAY A EREĞLİ AMBARL I BULGARIA FILIPPI H.UĞURLU KAYABAŞI ÇANKIRI TİREBOLU BORÇKA GEORGIA BATUMI ARMENIA GUMRI BALIKESİR SOMA ALİAĞA DENİZLİ YATAĞAN KEMERKÖY OYMAPINAR SEYDİŞEHİR KONYA ADANA ERZİN G.ANTEP ANDIRIN ELBİSTAN KANGAL YEŞİLHİSAR KAYSERİ ÇAYIRHAN GÖLBA ŞI KEBAN KARAKAYA ATATÜRK DİYARBAKIR Ş.URFA BATMAN HAKKARİ KARS ÖZLÜCE ERZURUM HORASAN IĞDI R D.BEYAZIT DIMODICHEV SYRIA DERİNER İSKENDERUN IRAN IRAQ ALEPPO PS3 ZAKHO KHOY BAZARGAN BABEK KALKANDERE KOCATEPE 220 kv TL 154 kv TL Hidrolik (Planlanan) Hidrolik( Mevcut) Termik (Mevcut) TL (EXISTING) TL (PLANNED) Termik (Planlanan) Y.TEP E ALİBEYK ÖY TUNÇBİLEK D.PAŞA KARABİGA ADA- GEBZE PAŞAKÖ Y OSMANCA GÖKÇEKAYA TEMELLİ SİNCAN BABAES Kİ HAMİTABA T ÜMRANİY E BURS A AYDIN YENİKÖY BİRECİK SEYİTÖMER IŞIKLAR ADAPAZA RI KIZILTEPE AĞRI Z.KÖY TEPEÖRE N UNIMAR HİLVAN ILISU DOĞANLI ÇUKURCA CİZRE VAN ERMENEK MERSİN HATAY İKİTELL İ A.ALANI KAPTAN UZUNDERE HİSAR GÜRSÖĞÜT KARGI SİVAS DEÇEKO YUSUFE Lİ KAVŞAK İSDEMİR BOYABAT AMASRA KARABÜ K X BEYKOZ ÇARŞAMBA HOP A VARSAK MANİSA HABİPLER SAMSUN DGKÇ BORASC O SAN-SEL TES SAMSUN TES CENGİZ AKFEN DGKÇ SİNOP TES AKFEN ÇAYLI TES ÇAN İÇDAŞ İÇDAŞ AKSA SİLOPİ TES K.KALE DGKÇ İÇANADOL U DGKÇ BAĞLU M KAYRAKTEPE YEDİGÖZE İSPİR ARKUN AKINCI ORDU-2 TATVAN ÇETİN MOSUL Electricity Network of Turkey TEİAŞ

4 Physical Integration with the European Electricity System TEİAŞ yeni data veya grafik Milestones : Physical integration Market convergence Competition Security - September 2010 : Trial synchronous paralel operation was launched - September 2011 : Finalization of trial operation Sustainability TEİAŞ 4 of 16

5 Dynamics of the Turkish Electricity System Increasing share of imported fuels, hydro generation varies with meteorological conditions 100% 90% 80% 30,6 TEİAŞ yeni data veya grafik 1,2 18,4 OTHER RENEWABLES HYDRO 70% 60% 50% 31,2 49,1 NATURAL GAS 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29,1 2,7 Milestones : Physical integration Market convergence Competition 20 Security 8,4 Sustainability LIQUID FUEL LIGNITE HARD COAL TEİAŞ Statistics 5 of 16

6 Dynamics of the Turkish Electricity System Increasing seasonality 2,25 TEİAŞ yeni data veya grafik Maximum daily generation / Minimum daily generation 2 1,75 1,5 1,25 1 Milestones : Physical integration Market convergence Competition Security Sustainability Produced from TEİAŞ Statistics 6 of 16

7 Dynamics of the Turkish Electricity System Base load is fossil fuels, natural gas and hydro provides flexibility for system stability MW LIQUID FUEL MAXIMUM PEAK LOAD in GW IMPORTS NATURAL GAS IMPORTED COAL DOMESTIC HARD COAL LIGNITE EXPORTS HYDRO TEİAŞ Statistics 7 of 16

8 Dynamics of the Turkish Electricity System Increasing private sector participation in electricity generation , ,0 TEİAŞ yeni data veya grafik TOOR plants ,0 Mobile plants , Autoproducers ,0 GWh , GenCos 80000, , , ,0 0,0 TEİAŞ Statistics Milestones : Physical integration Market convergence Competition Security Sustainability Competition in the market New GenCos with no state guarantees Concessionary EÜAŞ Affiliated EÜAŞ 8 of 16

9 Dynamics of the Turkish Electricity System Reserve Capacity ranging between 40 % 60 % TEİAŞ yeni data veya grafik Reserve Margin (%, based on installed capacity) % Milestones : Physical integration Market convergence Competition Security Sustainability Produced from TEİAŞ Statistics 9 of 16

10 Dynamics of the Turkish Electricity System Increasing competition Market Opening 23 % in % in 2009 Market Concentration Share of EUAS in Generation : 78 % in % in 2009 Share of TETAS in Wholesale : 100 % in % in 2009 Liquidity in the Wholesale Market Share of balancing market : 0 % in % in 2009 Data from EMRA and TEİAŞ 10 of 16

11 Dynamics of the Turkish Electricity System Electricity demand is projected to double in 10 years Electricity Consumption per capita(kwh/capita) European Countries TR GDP per capita (GDP [US$-PPP] / capita Produced from IEA Statistics 11 of 16

12 Further Competition Electricity Sector Strategy Major elements are. Security of Supply Interconnections Development of the wholesale market Privatizations Distribution : to be completed Generation : will be launched Dates for full market opening 2012 for industry 2015 for households Diversification of the generation portfolio Larger use of hydro and lignite Introduction of nuclear power Wind capacity of 20 GW Strengthening of the transmission system Focus on efficiency ENTSO-E as prority Defined options for other interconnections Electricity Market and Security of Supply Strategy Paper was endorsed by the High Planning Council in of 16

13 Looking to the future of the Turkish Electricity System Strategic vision for % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Electricity Generation Capacity Portfolio , Sıvı Liquid Yakıt Fuel Nükleer Nuclear Jeotermal Geothermal Güneş Solar Rüzgar Wind Doğal Gas Gaz Hidrolik Hydro İthal Imp. Kömür Coal Yerli Hard Taş Coal Kömürü Linyit Lignite Estimated based on Strategy Paper targets 13 of 16

14 Looking to the future of the Turkish Electricity System Strategic vision for % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% , Sıvı Yakıt Nükleer Jeotermal Güneş Rüzgar Doğal Gaz Hidrolik İthal Kömür Yerli Taş Kömürü Linyit Carbon Intensity of Electricity Generation (kg CO2eq/kWh) 2007 = 1 Diversity Index (Shannon-Weiner) 2007 = 1 Diversity Index (Herfindahl Hirchmann) 2007= : - % : + % : + % Key for success : enhanced economic efficiency by competition Bora Şekip Güray, of 16

15 15 of 16 Looking to the future for Turkey and EU Strategic vision for integration Full membership to ENTSO-E will provide for TEİAŞ yeni data veya grafik physical integration with the electricity system in Europe market convergence electricity trade options Milestones : - September 2010 : Trial synchronous paralel operation was launched - September 2011 : Finalization of trial operation regional energy security and Physical sustainability integration Market convergence Competition Security Sustainability

16 16 of 16 EMERGING TRENDS IN ELECTRICITY : COMPETITION, SUSTAINABILITY, INTEGRATION 6th Emerging Europe Energy Summit November 4, 2010 İstanbul Bora Şekip Güray Directorate General for Energy MENR, TURKEY