Turkish Natural Gas Market in Light of Global Energy Trends
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1 Turkish Natural Gas Market in Light of Global Energy Trends Batu Aksoy Board Member PETFORM CEO & Board Member Turcas Petrol 22 March 2011 Mare Forum Istanbul 2011
2 About PETFORM Established in 2000, PETFORM has played a crucial role in the transfer of private sector views to the public authorities regarding to Turkish energy legislation amendments (Natural Gas Market Law, Petroleum Market Law, Turkish Petroleum Law ) Member companies mainly have activities in 2 sectors: Exploration & Production Sector Natural Gas Market
3 PETFORM Member 45 Energy Companies AKENERJI AKSA DOGALGAZ ALADDIN MIDDLE EAST ATTILA DOGAN INSAAT AVRASYA GAZ AYGAZ DOGAL GAZ BM INSAAT BOSPHORUSGAZ BP ÇALIK ENERJI DOGAL ENERJI EDISON EGE GAZ ENEL ENERCO ENERJI ENERJISA PETROL OFISI ENI POZITIF DOGALGAZ E.ON RUHRGAS SHELL ENERJI ERDGAZ SOCAR & TURCAS ENERJI EWE ENERJI SOYAK ENERJI EXXONMOBIL STATOIL GENEL ENERJI TEKFEN INSAAT GÜNEY YILDIZI PETROL TEMI IBS RESEARCH THRACE BASIN NATURGAZ TIWAY TURKEY N.V.TURKSE PERENCO TOTAL OMV TRANSATLANTIC TURKEY OPALIT TURCAS PALMET TURUSGAZ PETOIL ZORLU DOGALGAZ
4 PETFORM Members Value in Turkish Economy (2010) Total Turnover : 35.7 billion USD (5% of GDP) Total Tax : 2.1 billion USD Total Employment : 31,200
5 World Population Growth ( ) Source: Shell
6 World GDP Growth ( ) Source: IEA
7 GDP & Energy Demand Growth ( ) GDP Energy Demand Source: ExxonMobil
8 World Primary Energy Demand ( ) Source: IEA
9 Energy Demand By Sector & By Fuel ( ) By Sector By Fuel Source: ExxonMobil
10 Power Generation Fuel Demand ( ) Source: ExxonMobil
11 Share of Non-Fossil Fuels in Power Generation Source: BP
12 Primary Energy Investment Requirement ( ) Source: IEA
13 Distribution of World Oil Reserves ( ) Source: BP
14 Global Oil Trade Routes Source: BP
15 World Oil Transit Choke-points Source: IEA
16 Distribution of World Gas Reserves ( ) Source: BP
17 Global Gas Trade Routes Source: BP
18 Distribution of World Gas Reserves Source: GDF SUEZ
19 NOC & IOC Production Trends ( ) 120 Oil Gas mb/d 100 bcm NOC IOC Source: IEA
20 Crude Oil Prices ( ) Source: BP
21 Oil Prices & Global Recessions Source: CIBC
22 Gas Supply Demand Gap in Europe ( ) Source: OMV
23 Europe s s Gas Demand Forecast ( ) Source: OMV
24 Europe s s Gas Import Dependency ( ) Source: OMV
25 Corridors to the European Gas Market Source: CERA
26 Gas Pipelines via Turkey Source: BOTAS
27 Energy Demand Domestic Production Balance ( ) Source: MENR Demand (million toe) Production (million toe) Import (million toe) Export (million toe) Bunker Fuel (million toe) Net Import (million toe) Coverage of Domestic Production to Total Consumption (%)
28 Primary Energy Consumption Production Balance (2009) Resources Coal + Lignite Other Solid Fuels Oil Natural Gas Renewables Total Primary Energy Production (million toe) Share in Primary Energy Production (%) Primary Energy Consumption (million toe) Share in Primary Energy Consumption (%) Coverage of Production to Consumption (%) Source: MENR
29 Primary Energy Production Consumption Balance (2009) Distribution of Production ( million toe) Distribution of Consumption ( million toe) Share of Imported Energy Resources: % Source: MENR
30 Development of the Turkish Natural Gas Market USSR Turkey Contract ( ) Contract? (6 bcm) Contract? (Turusgaz( Turusgaz) Russia - Turkey ( & Blue Stream) Contract? 3 February 1998 LNG Supply from Algeria (1998) Natural Gas Market Law ( ) Gas Supply from Iran (2002) Blue Stream Project (December( 2002) Preparation Process Market Development Based on Russian Gas Increase in Gas Supply Sources First Steps in Liberalization Process Market Development in Liberalization Process Nov Contract Release Tender to be done 2006 Dec Announcement of Tender Results 2007 Dec First Private Importer s Access into Market 2009 Jan Second Private Importer s Access into Market 2009 Apr Other Two Private Importers Access into Market 2009 May LNG Importer s Access into Market 2009 Jun/Jul Wholesale Companies Access into Market 2010 Jan 5 Wholesale Companies in Operation
31 Gas Purchase Agreements Contract Date of Signature Date of Operation Duration (Years) Volume (Plateau bcma) Date of Expiration Russia (West) Feb 1986 Jun Algeria (LNG) Apr 1988 Aug Nigeria (LNG) Nov 1995 Nov Iran Aug 1996 Dec Russia (B.Stream) Dec 1997 Feb Russia (West) Feb 1998 Mar Azerbaijan Mar 2001 Jul
32 Distribution of Gas Import Based on Source Country Russia (55.6%)? (46.9%) Iran (14.8%)? (20.7%) Azerbaijan (13,8%)? (12.1%) Others (15.8%)? (20.3%) (Algeria + Nigeria + Ege Gaz) bcm? bcm (? %4.7?)
33 Distribution of Gas Imports Bewteen State and Private Sector BOTAS (92.5%)? (84.7%) Private Co s (7.5%)? (15.3%) ?
34 Gas Supply Demand Balance ( ) Source: : IEA Turkey 2009 Review
35 THANK YOU...
Turkish Petroleum Law ) Member companies mainly have activities in 2 sectors: Exploration & Production Sector Natural Gas Market
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