MANAGING THE FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY, SPEEDING UP THE PRIVATIZATIONS, FOSTERING NEW INVESTMENTS

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1 MANAGING THE FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLY, SPEEDING UP THE PRIVATIZATIONS, FOSTERING NEW INVESTMENTS Batu AKSOY CEO & Board Member, Turcas Petrol A.Ş. Member & Vice President of the Energy Working Group, TUSIAD Board Member, ETD (Energy Traders Association) Alt. Board Member & Former Chairman, PETFORM (Petroleum Platform Association) Member of the Executive Committee of the Turkish-Greek Business Council, DEIK Founding Member of the Energy Business Council, DEIK STEAM Conference 2012 CONRAD Hotel, Istanbul September 25,

2 About TURCAS 2

3 Turkey s growing energy demand so far has been met with a diversified portfolio. Natural gas has been the primary source followed by hydro and lignite. Source:TEİAS 3

4 During the course of the last 10 years, private sector took the desired initiative to make the required investments taking the market risks in line with the liberalization program. Source: MENR 4

5 Turkey s electricity demand will significantly grow going forward. Therefore, efficient growth of the power market is a must to foster the macroeconomic growth of Turkey. 5

6 Reviewing the licensed projects; natural gas will continue to dominate the future portfolio, again followed by hydro. Renewable Sources together with Nuclear Energy and Local Conventional Sources (i.e. Lignite) shall continue to be the main agenda items of the Turkish energy industry in the next decade. Asset based growth shall be sustained with long-term transparency and reliability in the market conditions. Source: MENR 6

7 Regulated and subsidized tariffs together with lack of liquidity in electricity market create artificial prices which make long term planning difficult, if not impossible. Therefore, establishment of a liberalized energy market in Turkey is a necessity for the efficient operation of the market. Nordpool Electricity Spot (Day Ahead, Intraday) Derivatives (Futures, Options) OTC Market APX-ENDEX Powernext EPEX Spot EEX EEX/Eurex Natural Gas Spot (Day Ahead, Intraday) Derivatives (Futures, Options) OTC Market CO 2 Emission Rights Spot (EUA) Derivatives (EUA/CER) OTC Market CEGH HUPX Coal Derivatives OTC Market European Energy Exchanges & Fields of Activities Turkish Energy Exchange 7

8 Evolution of energy trade volume in Western Europe and the size of derivative operations in these markets enabled the investors as well as the financing institutions foresee and hedge the volatility in energy markets. [TWh] Spot Piyasa Türev Piyasası * Source: EEX, EPEX 8

9 Turkey is ready for the establishment of a liquid energy market and to become a strategic regional hub. Total Electricity Demand of Turkey and its neighbouring Countries > 1,400 TWh/year Turkey 229 TWh Western European Energy Exchange Russia 725 TWh Bulgaria 31 TWh EMEA Energy Exchange Georgia 6 TWh Azerbaijan 15 TWh Greece 53 TWh Egypt 111 TWh Iran 163 TWh Syria 26 TWh Armenia 4.8 TWh Iraq 35 TWh Electricity Interconnection System Sources: ENTSO-E, TEİAŞ, IEA Not: BG, TR and GR figures are 2010 while the others belong to

10 Market Maturity Dynamics of Developing Energy Markets Non-competitive Market Transition Period Competitive Market Mature Market Intensive Growth Risk Management Market Making Immature Market First Entry Physical Balancing Transparency Phases of Pricing Mechanism 1) Cost-based 2) The escalation formula based on alternative fuels 3) Commodity Markets, Forward / Future based pricing Long-term Contracts Short-term Contracts Spot/Alivre Contracts Time t Forwards / Futures / Options 1 0

11 Supply Demand Predictable pricing and reference prices together with less bureaucratic regulatory frameworks will attract more foreign and local investors to the Turkish energy market. Principal Forces of Liberal Energy Markets Fuel Markets & Prices Meteorological Data Manufacturing & Capacity Utilisation Rate CO 2 Prices Coal Prices Oil Prices Residential & Commercial Consumption Industrial Consumption Power Generation Composition Exchange Rates Weekends & Holidays Working Days Power & Gas Exchange Prices Long term contracts Local production Supply and Demand Balance in the Neighboring Markets Global LNG production, liquefaction and transportation LNG Spot LNG Forward LNG Gasification Storage Levels Transmission Activities Repair, Maintenance and Cut-Off 1 1

12 Transaction Offer Settlement Price Gas Trading Center within Energy Exchange Spot & Alivre Markets Market Balancing Market Participants (Importer, Wholesaler, Trader, Eligible Consumers) Invoice imbalanced claims, transmission, delivery control to related parties Suppliers (Importer, Wholesaler, Trader) Clearing Clearing House Nomination / Programming Balancing Gas Price Offers BOTAŞ İLETİM A.Ş. (TSO) System Operator The transaction based on balancing gas price Congestion Management / Technical Limitations Collective Nomination / Programming Cut-off compensation Interruptible Consumer Cut-Off Instruction OTC Market EPİAŞ Interruptible Eligible Consumers

13 Future / Ideal Structure of the Turkish Power Market Spot and Alivre Markets Market Balancing Market Participants (Traders, Producers, Consumers) Role and Responsibility Offer intraday FX (Cash) to the Energy Exchange Offers OTC (Over The Counter) Role and Responsibility > Spot and Future Trading of specially structured or standard products > Providing physical delivery and financial settlement consecutively in order to increase liquidity > Market Transfer Price and Volume Risk Settlement price and load/time instructions Clearing Clearing House Personal Nomination / Programming Role and Responsibility > Financial Clearing EPİAŞ (Market Operator) Role and Responsibility Market Operator Setting less complicated standard products for today and future Providing the suitability between financial settlement and physical delivery in order to increase liquidity Regulating the market by supporting transparency and liquidity. Providing solid parameters for short and long term commercial decision as well as investments. Managing the risk of market price and market volume Invoice imbalanced claims to related parties Congestion Management / Technical Limitations Collective Nomination / Programming Independent Power Producers TEİAŞ (Transmission System Operator) Role and Responsibility Offers to the market to stabilize Follow orders from Transmission System Operator to stabilize the market Load Shedding / Load up offers (ancillary services) National Load Dispatch Centre Role and Responsibility Identifying imbalances in the system and resolving System operator needs very flexible options(put-call) in order to stabilize frequency focused network balance. > The System Operator executes these options automatically or in a very short time. > System Operators usually open auction market to meet the needs for balances based on the minimum cost of energy approach. Load Shedding / Load up offers (ancillary services) Large Industrial Consumers Orders for Increasing/Decreasing the load to balance the system at the settlement price Bilateral Agreements Orders for Increasing/Decreasing the load to balance the system at the settlement price Role and Responsibility Offers to the market to stabilize > Follow orders from Transmission System Operator to stabilize the market 1 3

14 Necessary Steps to Foster Investments: Speeding up the privatizations, improving transmission infrastructure & alignment of regulation Electricity Market Natural Gas Market 1 4

15 15 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION..

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