How to develop - rethinking our planning?

Transcription

1 Ylva Löf, Göteborgsregionens kommunalförbund

2 Göteborg Approx 1, inhabitants in the functional region There are 65,000 students 18% of Göteborg's inhabitants are born abroad 50% of Scandinavia's industrial capacity is within 300 kilometres The largest port in Scandinavia

3 Objectives and Challenges in Transport planning Nationally and in Göteborg region

4 The most important challenges in the transportation area in Sweden? Changes in economic structure The age structure and settlement patterns Good environment (everything from climate to attractive living environment) Larger "needs" than resources

5 Challenges Göteborg region Globalised transformation Changing climate Growing population Social cohesion

6 Political objectives on national level The overall objective of the Swedish transport policy goals An economically efficient, sustainable transport system for people and enterprises throughout the country The functional objective accessibility The impact objective traffic safety and environment Growth policy objectives People and businesses throughout the country should be able to grow and develop through their own efforts. All regions can and will contribute to Sweden's sustainable growth. Many other objectives in all policy areas

7 Political objectives Göteborg region Sustainable growth - Goals and strategies Adopted 2006 renewed 2013 We want to stimulate further population growth and at the same time make the most of the opportunities presented by further enlargement of the region We want to strengthen those qualities that lead us to want to live, work and visit the Göteborg Region We want to create a strong and sustainable regional structure based on the opportunities of the metropolitan area We want to develop a long-term sustainable infrastructure and an attractive public transport service Agreement on regional structure At the local level we will take responsibility for our part of the regional structure and we will also support other local governments in their efforts.

8 How do we have to rethink in the longterm planning to meet challenges and work toward the goals? Four dilemmas

9 Dilemma 1: The need for decisions in several forums A prerequisite for the achievement of a desired future is that decisions, in the same direction, are made in several forums Multi-level governance or multi-partner governance? Collaborative governance?

10 En annan aspekt klimatutmaningen bild bort: Ylva EU:s färdplan för klimat EU:s vitbok för transporter 2030 Mål för transportsektorns utsläpp av klimatgaser -20 procent till 2030 jämfört med Mål för transportsektorns utsläpp av klimatgaser -70 procent till 2050 jämfört med 2008 Klimatmål i den svenska transportsektorn Fossiloberoende fordonsflotta till Av Trafikverket tolkat som åtminstone 80 procent lägre användning av fossil energi till vägtransporter jämfört med 2004 Transportsektorn ska bidra till det nationella miljökvalitetsmålet för begränsad klimatpåverkan. Visionen om att Sverige inte ska ha några nettoutsläpp av klimatgaser 2050 innebär även att transportsektorn utsläpp bör vara nära noll, dvs procent jämfört med 2008 (eller vilket annat år som helst som har utsläpp). Figur 8.1: Jämförelse mellan EU-kommissionens mål och svenska mål

11 Scenarios: Climate change Agreed measures Beslutade åtgärder Objectives SE Klimatmål SE Klimatmål Objectives EU EU Emissions of greenhouse gases: Expected performance with agreed measures and Swedish and European objectives on climate change. Index 2004 = 100

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13 To reach the objectives it will not be enough with efficient vehicles, ships and aircrafts not even with an increased share of renewable energy and electrification of road transport. Meeting the objectives will also require a change of direction when it comes to developing society and infrastructure. " Energy efficiency Land-use planning and lifestyles Renewable energy

14 Göteborg region: We agree that we take joined responsibility that the regional structure will be long term sustainable. At the local level we will take responsibility for our part of the regional structure and we will also support other local governments in their efforts. Governance by common understanding creates acknowledged decisions GÖTEBORGSREGIONENS KOMMUNALFÖRBUND

15 The structural picture in local planning Kungälv GÖTEBORGSREGIONENS KOMMUNALFÖRBUND

16 Göteborg region objectives for public transport - K2020: Demanding a mix of actions Transport system Knowledge and awereness of alternatives Quality of service GÖTEBORGSREGIONENS KOMMUNALFÖRBUND

17 The west rail link - connecting the core to the region GÖTEBORGSREGIONENS KOMMUNALFÖRBUND

18 Västsvenska paketet: A package with infrastructural investments in west Sweden A number of planned infrastructural investments until Agreement on local and state finance Followed by implementation agreements Partners: Västra Götalandsregionen, Göteborgs Stad, Göteborgsregionens kommunalförbund, Region Halland and Trafikverket

19 What is in the package? Västlänken Marieholm tunnel Göta älv bridge K2020 Effective transportsystem train tunnel in central Göteborg roadtunnel under Göta Älv central brige for mainly public transport, walking and cycling investments for public transport investments for a more efficient transportsystem, with less environmental impact and increased road safety, IT-system in the transportsystem Mobility management

20 Project organisation Västsvenska paketet Projekten

21 Dilemma 2: The socio-economic decision support Not the challenges targets measures And not on the functions that are most important to develop to reach the objectives How to evaluate and balance different regions challenges and development aspirations? In a national/regional perspective?

22 The Swedish governments assignment for an new national transport plan Main corridors capacity main points Strengthen corridors that are important for Sustainable commuting Important transport links for business and goods Trans-boundary transports All modes of transport Focus on operation and maintenance Priority to the investments and other initiatives that the government has identified The starting point is the government-established plan

23 Challenges in the perspective of the Transport Administration How can we get the four-stage principle more operational? And attractive? How can we find more cost-efficient measures? Shortcomings and the evaluation/assessment of how important they are Perceived shortcomings today and/or in the future Factual shortcomings today and/or in the future Linking to the different development ambitions

24 How have we done to evaluate/balance deficiencies in the transport system? User Groups Identify corridors / nodes as well as their function Evaluation of the corridors importance for different groups of users Statistics and facts Commuting Traffic volumes Population development etc. Has to meet: Political objectives and ambitions Within the economic framework An example!

25 Example: Corridors in southern Sweden

26 Example of evaluation of 2 (total 43) Ranking of shortcomings Small Medium Large corridors/nodes Sydsverige Stockholm: (Köpenhamn) - Malmö Jönköping/Nässjö Linköping - (Stockholm) Diagonal (Stockholm) Enköping (Borlänge Mora/Sälen) Corridor nr 5 13 Shortcomings utifrån Longdistance freight transport Shortdistance freight transport Commuting Longdistance passenger transport (eg tourism) Transboundary transports Designated industries in the assignement: Mining industries Safety Environment

27 Dilemma 3: How to model an uncertain future? Are our decision models designed to achieve politically established goals? How does future outlined by the models match a desired future? Can we model the desired change? Can we model well-being?

28 "It's not the forecast that is the desired future - it is the objective that is the desired future" Det är inte prognosen som är målet det är ju målet som är målet

29 Omvärldsanalys och kunskap

30 Well-being in sustainable cities - WISE Research and practice together seeking knowledge in 5 research studies Ecological sustainability A good life Low carbon transitions for Gothenburg: potentials and well-being consequences Re-defining urban progress Baseline: Now Radical policies: well-being effects of congestion charges Rethinking Working hours Decision models for executing sustainable transitions - Seminar, 7 th november - Göteborg

31 SAMPERS can genenerate the desired travel behavoir K2020 (test result) Base forecast 2030 Doubled congenstion charge Doubled fuel cost Parking fee 80/40/20 kr 30% shorter traveltime with public trp Combined measures 31

32 Test results with agreed land-use 22,8 % 27,0 % 29,5 % 23,0 % Base forecast 2030 Landuse: structural illustration Landuse: structural illustration, with lower car ownership Landuse: structural illustration with car ownership

33 Källa: Trafikkontoret, Göteborgs stad Car traffic development Göteborg region Index 150 Biltrafikutveckling i de fasta snitten , Index basår Centrala stadssnittet Citysnittet 28 Fasta punkter Götaälv snittet Kommungräns snittet År

34 Dilemma 4: The inertia of long term planning A necessity and a curse The forecasts again Based on decisions already taken The traffic development on the national level seldom relevant in the regional/local context The discussion of the desirability is displaced by the debate on method and underestimation Decisions on old project hard to change Difficulties to handle new trends and behaviors The business economic perspective Example market pot

35 Rethinking our planning? - four dilemmas 1. The need for decisions in several forums 2. The socio-economic decision support targets measures 3. How to model an uncertain future? 4. The inertia of long term planning

36 Tack!

37 Vi utvecklar Göteborgsregionen tillsammans!

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39 The structural illustration an inspiration at the local level

40 Car ownership per 1000 inhab. on kilometersquares Göteborgsregionens kommunalförbund: Ale Alingsås Göteborg Härryda Kungsbacka Kungälv Lerum LillaEdet Mölndal Partille Stenungsund Tjörn Öckerö

41 Knowledge based policies.