C 4 SE Outlooks Ontario Regional

Transcription

1 C 4 SE Outlooks Ontario Regional

2 Major Economic Drivers Trading partner economic performance o Impacts exports, interest rates, exchange rates, commodity prices, inflation Major projects o Drives investment and associated production of goods and services Demographics o Impacts population growth and labour supply Economic policies o o Government fiscal policy regarding expenditures, taxes, and immigration Monetary policy regarding interest rates and exchange rates

3 Trading Partner Real GDP Growth (Annual Average, %) Rest of Canada United States Japan EU China

4 $US Commodity Price Indices (214=1.) Agriculture Metals & Minerals WTI Oil Henry Hub Natural Gas

5 GDP Price Deflator Inflation (%) United States Canada

6 Canadian Exchange Rate ($US)

7 3-Month Treasury Bill Rates (%) Canada United States

8 Northern Major Projects Mining o Utilities Projects include Ignace Bending Lake, EMO Rainy River, Cochrane Detour Lake, Red Lake, Pickle Lake, Wabigoon Goliath, White River Sugar Zone, Kenora Kenbridge, Detour Gold Corp, and Vale Copper Cliff - $9. billion o St. Mary s Paper, New Post Creek, Lower Mattagami and OPG projects - $4. billion Transportation o Energy East pipeline $1 to $1.5 billion Manufacturing o Terrace Bay and Atikokan pulp and sawmills and Vale Copper Cliff Nickel Smelter - $1.3 billion

9 East and Central Major Projects Utilities o Central: Haldimand Solar 1MW Grand River Renewable Energy PV Park and OPG projects - $1.5 billion Transportation o o East: Ottawa LRT and Energy East pipeline - $2.5 billion Central: Waterloo LRT - $1 billion

10 GTA Major Projects Utilities o Darlington and other power projects - $1 billion Transportation o Eglington LRT, Union-Pearson express, Union station upgrades, Sheppard east LRT, Enbridge pipeline - $1 billion Manufacturing o Ford plant expansion and retooling completed in 214 Highways o 47 extensions - $2 billion

11 Southwest Major Projects Utilities o Deep Geological Reserve, Bruce Replacement, K2 Wind power project, OPG projects, Courtright Natural Gas 3mw Green Electron Power Station - $2 billion Manufacturing o Nova Chemicals - $.5 billion Highways and Bridges o Windsor-Essex Parkway, Detroit River International Crossing - $2.5 billion

12 Real GDP Growth Ontario (%)

13 Ontario Industry GDP Growth (Annual Average, %) Total Agriculture Mining & Forestry Manufacturing Utilities Construction Private Services Public Services

14 Employment & Labour Force Growth, Unemployment Rate Ontario (%) Employment Labour Force Unemployment Rate

15 Percent of Population in the Labour Force, Ontario

16 Population Age Groups, Ontario, % of Total

17 Ontario Population Growth Components (%) Births-Deaths Migration

18 Ontario Labour Force Change Components New Entrants Retirements/Deaths Net In-Migration Other Net In Mobility Labour Force Change

19 Ontario Job Openings (s) Deaths & Retirements Expansion Demand Expansion demand refers to changes in employment

20 Ontario Regions (Economic Regions and CMAs) North (ER 59, 595) CMA Thunder Bay, Other Northwest, CMA Sudbury, Other Northeast East (ER 51,515) CMA Ottawa, Other East GTA (ER 53) Central (ER 52, 54, 55) CMA Hamilton, CMA St. Catharines-Niagara, CMA Kitchener-Waterloo, Other Central South (ER 56, 57, 58) CMA London, CMA Windsor, Other South

21 Real GDP Share (%) North East GTA Central Southwest

22 Employment Share (%) North East GTA Central South

23 Population Share (%) North East GTA Central Southwest

24 Real GDP Growth (Annual Average, %) North East GTA Central Southwest

25 Employment Growth (Annual Average, %) North East GTA Central Southwest

26 Average Annual Job Openings ( , s) Expansion Replacement Total % Replacement North East GTA Central Southwest Ontario

27 Unemployment Rate (%) North East GTA Central Southwest

28 Population Growth (Annual Average, %) North East GTA Central Southwest

29 Natural Population Growth Component (Annual Average, %) North East GTA Central Southwest

30 Migration Population Growth Component (Annual Average, %) North East GTA Central Southwest

31 Consumer Expenditure Growth (Annual Average, %) North East GTA Central Southwest

32 Residential Investment Expenditures ($27 Millions) North East GTA Central Southwest

33 Housing Starts North East GTA Central Southwest

34 Non-Residential Investment Expenditures ($27 Millions) North East GTA Central Southwest