Economic and Business Perspectives of the Shale Gas/Oil Industry
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1 Economic and Business Perspectives of the Shale Gas/Oil Industry Opportunities, challenges and perspectives for shale gas/oil development Mel Ydreos Vice Chairman, International Gas Union VP Government and Aboriginal Affairs Union Gas Ltd. A Spectra Energy Company Oct. 1, 2012 Mexico City
2 Who is the IGU? IGU is the worldwide gas technology network 79 charter members and 38 associate members in 78 countries Member countries in blue 2
3 Union Gas Ltd. A Spectra Energy Company Distribution Retail Customers: Annual Throughput: Distribution Pipe: 1.4 million 526 PJ 62,711 km Transmission Annual Throughput: Transmission Pipe: Markets Served: 880 PJ 4,743 km Ontario, Quebec, US Northeast Dawn Storage Storage: Underground Facilities: Markets Served: 166 PJ 23 Ontario, Quebec, Marketers Major Canadian natural gas storage, transmission and distribution company based in Ontario with 100 years of experience and safe service to our customers Assets of $5.8 billion in Ontario and annual revenue of approximately $1.8 billion Union Gas is the second largest natural gas utility in Canada 2,200 employees Named one of Canada s Top 100 Employers in 2011 and 2012 and one of Canada s Greenest Employers this year, with no layoffs during the economic downturn 3
4 Discussion Context setting: supply and price in Ontario, Canada Challenge/opportunity: supply diversity in Ontario Power generation opportunity: Historic view of power generation in Ontario Ontario s Long Term Energy Plan Opportunity for natural gas 29/10/2012 4
5 Affordable into the Future Prices down with reduced volatility Natural gas prices 33% below 2010 levels and 57% below 2007 Price expected to increase modestly over next 10 years As supply increases, price forecasts decrease Known reserves growing due to shale gas Price decline and forecast price stability due to huge increase in known North American reserves Reserves up 71% since 2000 to highest level in recorded history Almost all of this increase due to shale gas $15 $10 $5 $ Historical Forecast 5
6 Shale Gas & Ontario Impact of Shale Supplies on Ontario Residential NG Prices $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 Jul Apr Apr Jan Oct Historical Weighted Average $ of Gas Shale Gas Production as % of Total 30.0% 22.5% 15.0% 7.5% 0.0% 6
7 Historical Supply in Ontario Mid-Continent Gulf Coast 7
8 Changing Supply Dynamics Western Canada Decline 2-3 PJ/d Midcontinent Growth 1-2 PJ/d Marcellus/ Utica Growth 5-8 PJ/d Gulf Coast Growth 1-2 PJ/d 8
9 Decreasing Alberta Supply Alberta s Historical and Forecast Marketable Gas Production and Demand 9
10 Responding to Infrastructure Challenges 10
11 Responding to Infrastructure Challenges Historic Flow Growth Potential 11
12 Demand Forecast High Demand (Summer) vs Low Demand (Spring) 30,000 25,000 20,000 8,800 May 15,000 4,000 May 10,000 5, H o u r 12
13 Demand Forecast 2003 Generation (TWh) 2010 Projected Generation (TWh) Nuclear 42% Coal 25% 148 TWh 157 TWh Water 24% Gas/Oil 8% Bioenergy 1% Nuclear 52% Water 19% Gas/Oil 15% Coal 8% Conservation 4% Wind 2% Bioenergy 1% 2030 Projected Generation (TWh) 196 TWh Nuclear 46% Water 20% Conservation 14% Wind 10% Gas 7% Solar PV 2% Bioenergy 1% 13
14 Installed Capacity (MW) Installed Capacity (Projected) 2030 (Projected) Nuclear 10,061 11,446 12,000 Renewables Hydroelectric 7,880 8,127 9,000 Renewables Wind, Solar, Bioenergy 155 1,657 10,700 Gas 4,364 9,424 9,200 Coal 7,546 4,484 0 Conservation 0 1,837 7,100 Total 30,006 36,975 48,000 14
15 Electricity Prices Nominal Dollars Real Dollars Dollars/MWh Prices exclude HST Nominal Dollars Real Dollars 800kWh Monthly Consumption All In After-Tax Dollars/Month Prices include HST Nominal projected cost including inflation Real in 2010 dollars 15
16 Economic Benefits of Slowing Wind Development Research study Impact of reducing planned wind power investment and investing in natural gas generation McMaster University/Econometric Research study indicated that replacing about half of planned wind generation capacity (to 5,700 MW from 10,700 MW) with natural gas generation will result in: Capital Cost Ontario GDP Ontario Employment Ontario Wages Provincial Tax Revenue $5.7B $4.4B 512,494 Person years $2.6B $533m Note: Capital costs only, not fuel costs 16
17 Thank You 17
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