Economic 360 for Indonesia: Growth Prospects and Emerging Opportunities in the ICT Industry

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1 Economic 360 for Indonesia: Growth Prospects and Emerging Opportunities in the ICT Industry Indonesia s ICT Industry Decoded: Hardware, Software, and Telecom to Propel Growth April 2012

2 Contents Executive Summary 8 Political Analysis 13 Economic Analysis 30 Social Analysis 38 Technology Factors 43 Legal Factors 48 Environmental Factors 55 ICT Industry 62 Telecommunication Market 78 Information Technology 90 About Frost & Sullivan 98 4

3 List of Figures Economic 360 Perspective: Budget Allocation to Ministries (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Foreign Direct Investments (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Economic Indicators (Indonesia), 2004 and Economic 360 Perspective: Demographic Statistics (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Employment Indicators (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Sectorwise Foreign Capital Ownership Limit (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Negative Investment List (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Business Taxes and Specific Taxes on Corporations (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Personal Tax Rates (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Environmental Issues and Government Initiatives (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Key Environmental Agreements (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Key Environmental Indicators (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Investment Criteria (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Sector Deployment (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Palapa Ring Project Description (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Universal Service Obligation (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Initiatives (Indonesia), ICT Industry: IT Competitiveness Index (Major ASEAN Members), ICT Industry: Key Features of Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Telecommunication Market Regulations (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Major Telecommunication Companies (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Major Telecommunication Services Providers (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Company-wise Mobile Subscription Rate Increases in the Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Number of Fixed Telephone Line Providers in the Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Number of Mobile Network Providers in the Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Key Features of IT Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Business Opportunities (Indonesia),

4 List of Charts Economic 360 Perspective: Political Transition (Indonesia), 1999, 2002, 2004 and Economic 360 Perspective: Timeline of Election Trends (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Budget Deficit (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Fiscal Policy (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Bank Indonesia Rates and Inflation Rates (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Exports, Imports and Trade Surplus (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Membership in Various Organizations (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Industry Growth Rate (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Exchange Rate (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Current Account Balance (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Economic Growth Trends (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Health Expenses by Category (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Labor Laws (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Key Environment Issues (Indonesia), Economic 360 Perspective: Strategies Set by the Green Paper for Various Sectors (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Structure (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Institutions and Government Bodies (Indonesia), ICT Industry: e-initiatives (Indonesia), ICT Industry: e-governance Planning Process (Indonesia), ICT Industry: e-governance Initiatives (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Principal Sectors Covered Under National Connectivity (Indonesia),

5 List of Charts (continued) ICT Industry: Major Projects (Indonesia), ICT Industry: USO Program (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Telecommunications Market Segmentation (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Market Share of Fixed Line Service Providers in the Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Market Share of Mobile Service Providers in the Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Foreign Investments in Telecommunication (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Telecommunication Projects (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Fixed Telephone Lines in the Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Mobile Subscriptions in the Telecommunication Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Telecommunications Equipment Trade (Indonesia), ICT Industry: IT Market Segmentation (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Sector-wise IT Spending (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Internet Usage in the IT Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Fixed Broadband Subscriptions in the IT Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Fixed Broadband Subscription Penetration Rate in the IT Market (Indonesia), ICT Industry: Personal Computers in Use in the IT Market (Indonesia),

6 Executive Summary PESTLE Political Analysis Indonesia is the best example of political transition from autocracy to democracy. The country has achieved significant political stability after the re-election of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in July Reforms post 2008 were mainly focused at improving investment climate, macroeconomic and financial policy, energy security, and natural resources. These reforms were also aimed at enhancing environment and agriculture, infrastructure, and labor laws. High bureaucracy and restrictive laws are deterring investment prospects in Indonesia. However, the new political regime stresses on removing bottlenecks in infrastructure and capacity. Economic Analysis The Indonesian economy is driven by domestic consumption, which has saved the country from being significantly impacted by the global economic downturn. Indonesia is a part of the G-20 community and is the third in the world in terms of GDP growth rate. The highest contributor to GDP in Indonesia is the manufacturing sector, while that to GDP growth is the services sector. To reduce the impact of the financial crisis, which the economy felt toward the end of 2008, the Government had pumped in liquidity, secured alternative financing to fund an expansionary budget, and secured passage of a fiscal stimulus program. The economy has shown resilience and growth is expected to attain pre-crisis levels by The Government has identified ten priority industries that are expected to drive the manufacturing industry and enhance Industrial competitiveness. Emerging industries with business opportunities include infrastructures, oil and gas, ICT, and the mining sectors. Strengthening rupiah, new economic zones, manageable inflation levels, and improving investment climate indicate the prospective Indonesian economy for the next five years. Social Analysis Indonesia has emerged as an attractive market due to increasing population with high potential for consumer and industrial goods. The country has a huge domestic market with population of xxx.x million in 2009, of which xx.x percent was aged below 30 years. High unemployment levels, poverty, and low qualifications of work force are some of factors affecting consumption in Indonesia. 9

7 Executive Summary PESTLE (continued) Technology Factors R&D is still in the nascent stage of development in Indonesia and most companies do not have an R&D base in the country. However, in light of Science and Technology Vision 2025, significant achievements are being made in these two fields. The Ministry of Research and Technology (KRT) is meant to encourage organizations, especially research institutions, to conduct research in priority areas, namely technology, food, energy, defense and security, transportation and medicine and health. Legal Factors The legal system in Indonesia is not very transparent and is prone to inconsistencies. This has a negative impact on the investment climate. Activities listed in the negative investment list completely restrict foreign involvement. The negative list is being revised and is likely to open up more sectors to foreign direct investment. Environmental Factors Indonesia is currently the world s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but has pledged to reduce emissions by xx.x percent by To achieve its emission targets, the Government is taking measures to lower deforestation rates, reduce use of peat lands, and increase the proportion of renewable energy in energy mix. 10

8 Executive Summary ICT Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) ICT Overview: ICT industry in Indonesia is regulated by Ministry of Telecommunication and Information Technology. ICT spending crossed $xx.xx billion in 2010 and the industry contributes approximately x.x percent to the country s GDP. The industry is a priority industry as a part of the Government Infrastructure Development Program. Government initiatives to improve ICT sector includes the following: o o o o National Master Plan: The Indonesian government has framed the Master Plan for Acceleration and Expansion for Indonesia Economic Development (MP3EI) in order to achieve the status of a developed nation by Improvement of connectivity between the islands of the country is one of the priority areas. The industry is a part of the seven priority industries of the Java economic corridor. USO: National Universal Service Obligation (USO) program aims to bridge the gap between urban and rural ICT access by developing ICT infrastructure in remote areas. Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Government of Indonesia are involved in the development of ICT in rural areas. The USO program objective is to ensure that telecommunication services, including Internet and broadband, are provided in remote parts of rural areas of the country. E-initiatives: E-governance in Indonesia was introduced by using telematics technology. This was introduced in order to support the democratic governance practice, to assist communication between the central and local governments, and to move towards an era which is centered around an informed society. Facilities such as the National Information System of Standardization (SISTANAS) and Indonesia Standardization Information Network (INSTANET) are used to promote e-governance. Palapa Ring Project: The Palapa Ring Project is the most important ongoing infrastructure development initiative to support e-governance in Indonesia. The objective of the project is to set up a domestic fibre optic network that would connect xxx districts and xx provinces across the country, construct a high-capacity (xxx Gbps) support network, and improve the Wi-Fi infrastructure in east Indonesia. 11

9 Executive Summary Telecommunications Telecommunications (telecom) Sector: The telecom sector includes both public sector and private sector companies. Current policy liberalization was key in attracting foreign investment to the sector. The domestic companies, which currently serve the telecommunication market in Indonesia, include Telkomsel, Indosat, and Excelcomindo. Other prominent foreign participants and new entrants include Saudi Telecom, Smart Telecom, and PT Barkie Telecom. Indonesia has the third-largest number of mobile operators in a country in the Asia Pacific region, behind India and Bangladesh. There are over xxx.x million mobile subscribers in Indonesia and the number of mobile subscribers increased by xx.x percent in 2010 compared to Introduction of WiMAX and x.xg technology can significantly boost investment in the coming years. Network upgrade and development, which are part of government initiatives, could create investment opportunities through private public partnership. In addition, the Government of Indonesia may liberalize policies related to investment in telecom tower infrastructure. Information Technology (IT) IT Sector: The IT market in Indonesia is dominated by the hardware segment and it accounts for more than xx.x percent of Indonesian IT spending. The software market is relatively smaller compared to the hardware market and is still nascent. The IT services market is witnessing robust growth and is mainly supported by demand from the manufacturing, telecom, and banking sectors. Hardware segment is to benefit as the duty elimination on PC auxiliaries is most likely to increase international trade. The government is strengthening IT training in educational institutions which could drive the demand for PCs in the forecast period. Increasing demand for cloud computing technology will have a positive impact on the software sector. Automation of major corporate activities is expected to facilitate growth of the market. 12

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