Current and Future World Markets for Motors and Motor Controls

Transcription

1 IHS TECHNOLOGY Presentation 21 st. 2016, Jacksonville, motor & Drive Systems 2016 ihs.com Current and Future World Markets for Motors and Motor Controls Wilmer Zhou, Principal Analyst,

2 Macro Economy Brief IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

3 World GDP growth will pick up from 2.6% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2016 Real GDP 6 Q/Q % change, annual rate Source: IHS IHS Global 2015 Insight IHS 3

4 Emerging countries perform not good Real GDP India: Infrastructure Technical talent Working people age below 60 from 58% to Percent change Brazil China slow down Russia negative growth China India Brazil Russia Venezuela and Argentina are in recession Source: IHS 4

5 China s Investment driven industrial expansion is winding down The slow down of China s economy will decrease world exporting, Investment and consumption. China Manufacturing Purchase Management Index- Monthly Growth PMI 危 机 (Crisis) = 危 (Challenges) + 机 (Opportunities) 50.0 Challenges: Collapsing Commodity Demand Overcapacity Stock Market Correction Opportunities: Robotics replacing workers Automation penetration rate Jan- 14 Feb-Mar Apr- 14 May- Jun- Jul Aug- 14 Sep- Oct Nov- Dec- Jan Feb-Mar Apr- 15 May- Jun- Jul Factory capacity consolidation Source: IHS Manufacturing PMI (NBS) Manufacturing PMI (HSBC-CAIXIN) 5

6 Developed countries PMI indicators slightly come back Purchasing (Index, over managers 50 indicates indexes expansion) Index, over 50 signals expansion Economy Drivers in developed countries: US Domestic demand and residential construction accelerating Eurozone and Japan benefit from weak currency exchange rate US Low inflation drive consumer spending Low cost in US (Land,logistics, loans, tax, power, oil, gas) United States Eurozone China Japan Sources: Institute for Supply Management (US), Markit, National Bureau of Statistics (China) 6

7 Manufacturing challenges and Industry 4.0 IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

8 Industry 4.0 might be a solution for these Challenges Mechanical Electrical Mass Production Automation IT Technology Service Mass Customization Ford T Model Steam Engine Assembly line Conveyors, Motors PLC, PC, CNC, Embedded, Robotics CPS, IOT,ICT IT & OT

9 Industry 4.0 & Advanced manufacturing will increase productivity rate With Industry 4.0 Initiatives, Automation product use will rises Robotics: improve productivity and flexibility 3D-Printing: Reduce cost of prototyping Predictive Maintenance: Improve efficiency and reduce the down time 9

10 Industrial Automation Performance IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

11 2015 Summary Big Picture of Whole Industrial Automation $176B $40.1 billion Motors & Generators $30.8 billion Discrete Controllers $15.1 billion Rotary Products 2015 Equipment Revenue M 36.5% Motors & Motor Controls $24.1 billion Motor Controls $19.5 billion Process Control $29.5 billion Linear Products A 38.2% Automation Equipment $17.0 billion Switchgear P 25.4% Power Transmission Equipment 2015 Regional Sales Growth 2015 Market Drivers Americas -0.7% EMEA -2.6% Rest of Asia 1.3% Japan China -1.5% 5.7% Global GDP 2.5% Growth Machinery Production 2.9% Growth Capital Expenditure -3.2% Decline 42.3% IAE Sales into Discrete Manufacturing 42.5% IAE Sales into Process Manufacturing 11

12 Motors and Motor Controls Markets Data IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

13 LV Motors IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

14 The world Market of Low Voltage Motors by Regions The market size is around 14 billions USD LV motors 50 million units shipped 14

15 The world Market of Low Voltage Motors by Industries Main Industries Commercial HVAC, 31% Food, Beverage & Tobacco, 13.5% Mining, 7.5% Utilities, 5.0% Other Sectors, 43% Industry performance in 2014 Main applications Compressors, 21% Pumps, 32% Fans, 23% Other Applications, 24% Outperforming sectors: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Oil & LNG; fracking for shale gas in NAm & SAm, pipeline activity slow down this year Commercial HVAC Midstream: Chemicals & Petroleum Shipbuilding (carriers and specialized for LNG, LNG infrastructure slow down in 2015 ) Underperforming sectors: Cement, mining, Steel, Pulp & Paper Printing, Woodworking, Rubber & Plastics

16 Medium Voltage Motors IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

17 The World Market for Medium Voltage Motors by Regions Negative Growth in 2015 Market size: 5.7 billions USD Unit shipments: 60,000 17

18 The World Market for Medium Voltage Motors by Industries Figure 2.13 The World Market for Medium Voltage Motors Market Breakdown in by Revenues ($M) and Growth (%) 1,400 1,200 1, Negative growth Less than 2% Growth 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 2014 Revenues Growth 2015 Growth % Source: IHS Jun-15 18

19 Medium Voltage Motor Drives IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

20 The World Market for Medium Voltage Motor Drives 2013 Peak: 2.7 billions Driving by America 20% growth, Asia -5% 2012 Revenue Medium : Voltage Millions Motor USD Drives Market Regional Breakdown ($M) Japan $ % Rest of Asia $ % EMEA $ % China $ % Global -16% Asia -25% MV Drives Unit:Around 12,000, ASP 150k USD, Two of its major market drivers: China and Oil & Gas. China makes up 29% of global MV drive revenues while oil & gas makes up 22%. Americas $ % 20

21 Low Voltage Motor Drives IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

22 The World Market for Low Voltage Motor Drives by Product Types The EMEA Market for Low Voltage AC & DC Motor Drives by Product Type - Market Breakdown (2014) & Revenue Growth % (2015 & 2016) 22

23 Motor vs. Motor Drives Ratio Comparison 23

24 Motion Controls IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

25 The World Market for Motion Controls: Servo motors 40% 30% Fluctuated market: Rely on machinery production Rely on several precise machinery sectors: Machine tools, electronic, packaging, textile, printing 20% 10% 0% -10% % -30% 运 Motion 动 控 制 GDP Industry 工 业 产 值 机 Machinery 械 产 值 controls production production

26 The World Market for Motion Controls by Regions High Growth in Japan: High end equipment, CNCs,Robotics, Semiconductors, Electronics machines drive the growth. Industry 4.0 and Advanced manufacturing need more precise motion controls product China import lots of CNC, robot, semiconductors equipment from Japan Depreciation Japanese Yen also drive the sales. 26

27 Small Motors in Automotive IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

28 The World Market for Motors in Automotive by Regions Average motors in 1 car, luxury car and E-car will have more motors 28

29 The World Market for Motors in Automotive Sales Prices 29

30 Motors and Motor Controls Markets Opportunity High Efficiency Motors IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

31 Global high efficiency motors standards around the world Low Efficiency High Efficiency IEC is the Europ e stand ard which. IEC is the Europe standard which have the great influence around the world. 31

32 Current deployment situation for efficiency motors in 2014

33 Under more strict regulations, global low voltage motors efficiency transaction speed up 33

34 Motors and Motor Controls Downstream Industries Opportunities IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

35 Renewable energy Wind Power Global wind new installed capacity outlook (GW), China wind new installed capacity outlook (GW), China is the biggest wind market. Now 20 GW/Year, only 2.5% of the total China power Onshore Offshore Wind power industry in China come back, government s commitment to rise the official target for 2020 to 200GW 35

36 BLDC Motors in Drones/UAV DJI, Zero Tech, Yuneec & Tiger motor 36

37 Industries Opportunities Categories Urbanization and infrastructure Service Smart Transport Metal Paper Rail Warehouse Automobile Construction Energy efficiency and environment E-Car Oil&Gas Logistics HVAC Infrastructure Telecom Environment Protection Water Transportation chain Energy efficiency and environment Renewable Power Generation Mining Smart grid FBT Semi Wearable Consumption-led economy Electronic manufacturing E-Car Li-Battery CNC FBT FT 3C E-Car Industry upgrades and shifts IOT Driverless Car Aerospace UAV Smart Home 3D Print Medical Advanced manufacturing Industry 4.0 Smart HW Security Agricultural Robotics Sensor Machinery

38 Integration and convergence in motors and motors controls IHS HIGHLY CONFIDENTIAL. NOT FOR DISCLOSURE BEYOND IHS COLLEAGUES WITH A NEED TO KNOW.

39 Integration:Motors and motor controls PLC Embedded Motor Drives Gearbox Coupling Stepper Motion controls Communication Motors IPC CS Integration: Motors & motor controls;motors & drives & Power transmission; Replacement: PM,BLDC > Induction; Converge: Motion Controls<>Stepper; Servo <> motor drives; 39

40 Siemens IDS:From motors & motor controls to whole system ----IDS (Integrated Drives System) Horizontal: hardware Vertical: information and intelligence Value chain and product life ---Digital factory strategy IDS - Integrated Drives System TIA Total integration automation PLM- Product life management Digital drive software and service 40

41 IHS Company 41