Population and socio-economic trends in Ontario

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1 Population and socio-economic trends in Ontario Presentation by Dr. Ivan P. Fellegi, Chief Statistician of Canada February 17 th, 2007

2 International migration accounts for a larger share of population growth over time Aggregated demographic components, Ontario, to , ,000 Projected 200, , ,000 Net international migration 50,000 Natural increase + net interprovincial migration ,000 Year ending June 30 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, and Population Projections: XIE.

3 Toronto area dominates growth in Ontario Algoma Sudbury Nipissing Manitoulin Parry Sound Prescott and Russell Renfrew Ottawa-Gatineau Ottawa Bruce Huron Grey Dufferin Wellington Simcoe Peel Muskoka York Kawartha Lakes Toronto Haliburton Toronto Oshawa Peterborough Durham Hastings Northumberland Frontenac Prince Edward Lanark Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Leeds and Grenville Lennox and Addington Windsor Essex Perth Middlesex London Elgin Waterloo Halton Kitchener Hamilton Hamilton Brant Niagara Oxford Lambton Chatham- Kent Haldimand- Norfolk Annual rate of growth (per 1,000) (number of Census Divisions) >= 12,8 (8) 0 - < 12,8 (30) < 0 (11) Ontario = 12.8 per 1,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.

4 Population growth is highly concentrated in urbanized areas while rural population remains static over time Urban Rural Source: Statistics Canada, 1901 to 2001 Censuses.

5 The proportion of Ontarians aged 65 and over has been increasing over time: nearly 1 in 4 will be in this age group by % 45% 0-24 Projected 40% 35% 30% % 20% % 10% % 0% Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates, 1921 to 2006 and Population Projections: XIE.

6 Most immigrants to Ontario settle in the Toronto metropolitan area % 100 % of recent immigrants who settled in Ontario Immigrants of the 1970s in 1981 Census Immigrants of the 1980s in 1991 Census Immigrants of the 1990s in 2001 Census Among which: Ontario Toronto Ottawa Other CMA or CA Place of residence in Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses Non-CMA or CA in Ontario

7 Similar to the national picture, immigrants to Ontario are increasingly from Asia and the Middle East 100% Region of birth of immigrants residing in Ontario, 2001 United States 75% Europe 50% Asia and the Middle East Africa 25% Caribbean, Central and South America Oceania and other 0% Before Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census. Period of immigration

8 By 2017, three in 10 residents of Ontario and half of Toronto could belong to a visible minority group Visible minority population in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario) % of population Toronto Other CMAs Rest of Ont Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, Censuses and Population Projections: XIE.

9 Nationally, Chinese are the largest visible minority group, but South Asian is largest in Ontario and could double by 2017 Composition of visible minorities in Ontario Japanese Korean 2017 (projections) 2001 Census West Asian Southeast Asian Arab Latin American Filipino Black Chinese South Asian ,200 1,500 Persons in '000 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census and Population Projections: XIE.

10 Muslims could lead the growth among the non-christian religions Non-Christian religious groups in Ontario, 1981 to 2017 (reference scenario) % of population Muslim Jewish Buddhist Hindu Sikh Other non-christian religions Year Source: Statistics Canada, Censuses and Population Projections: XIE.

11 Although knowledge of official languages increases over time for immigrants, about one in 10 immigrants still could not converse in either English or French % Knowledge of official language for immigrants who arrived in the 1980s with a non-english / non-french mother tongue, Ontario English only French only English and French 14.3 Knowledge of official language 9.7 Neither English nor French Source: Statistics Canada, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

12 More than one-quarter million in Ontario may identify themselves as Aboriginal by 2017 Total Aboriginals 214, ,700 North American Indian 161, , Métis 51,300 61,500 Inuit 1,600 2,100-50, , , , , ,000 Note: 2001 Census counts are adjusted for census undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves. In 2017, the projected size of the Aboriginal identity population is based on demographic factors only. Although self reporting of Aboriginal identity could change over time, this element was not considered in these projections.

13 Aboriginal persons are concentrated in Ontario s northern electoral districts % Population in electoral district that was Aboriginal, % or more 10 to 15% 5 to 10% Less than 5% Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.

14 Educational attainment has risen in recent decades in Ontario Highest attainment 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% % 10% 0% High school or less Post Secondary University Source: Statistics Canada, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.

15 Lowest median income districts are found in rural areas and some city centres highest median income districts are on the CMA fringe Median income Blue=top 20 Red=bottom 20 Etobicoke-North York-West York-South Davenport Golden Horseshoe Scarborough South-West Don Valley West St. Pauls Hamilton East & West Essex Lanark-Carleton Nepean-Carleton Carleton-Gloucester Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.

16 Inequality has risen due to an increase in income at the top and no change at the bottom The income gap between higher and lower income families has risen since In 1994, the top 10% of Ontario families earned 6.8 times that of the bottom 10% of families. By 2004 this was 9.4 times. Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Consumer Finances,1994, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2004.

17 Low income is concentrated among recent immigrants, Aboriginal peoples, lone parents and older unattached people incidence of low income (%), before tax, Recent immigrants Aboriginal People Lone parents Unattached women age Unattached men age All Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census.

18 Voter turnout in 2003 was higher in rural districts, districts with an older population, districts with higher income, and districts with fewer recent immigrants Voter turnout, % or more 55 to 60% Less than 55%

19 In the literature on voter turnout, several socio-economic factors are commonly associated with turnout rates Factors which were significantly correlated with 2003 election turnout included: Education Age Employment status Income Rural

20 Older residents had a higher proportion of provincial voting, while there was no difference between men and women % % of eligible voters who reported to have voted in the provincial election prior to % % of eligible Ontario voters who reported to have voted in the provincial election prior to years years years 65 years and older 0.0 Male Female Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, 2002.

21 Recent immigrants have lowest voting rates % % of eligible immigrants who reported that they voted in the provincial election prior to 2002, Ontario % of eligible Ontario voters voted in the previous provincial election Before to to 1998 Source: Statistics Canada, Ethnic Diversity Survey, Period of immigration

22 Slides in reserve

23 Proportions of youth are higher in northern and southwestern Ontario Algoma Sudbury Nipissing Manitoulin Parry Sound Prescott and Russell Renfrew O Ottawa-Gatineau a-g atineau O Ottawa a Bruce Huron Grey Dufferin D W ellington Simcoe Peel Muskoka York Kawartha Lakes Toronto Haliburton Toronto Oshawa Durham Peterborough Hastings Northumberland Frontenac Prince Edward Lanark Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Leeds and Grenville Lennox and Addington Windsor Essex Lambton Chatham- Kent Perth Middlesex London Elgin Waterloo Halton Kitchener H Hamilton H Hamilton Brant Niagara Oxford H Haldimand- and- Norfolk Proportion of population aged 18-24, 2006 (per1,000) (number of CDs) >= 98.4 (16) < 98.4 (17) < 93.8 (16) Ontario Median Proportion= 96.0 per 1,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.

24 Proportion of seniors is higher in rural areas North excepted Algoma Sudbury Nipissing Manitoulin Parry Sound Prescott and Russell Renfrew O Ottawa-Gatineau a-g atineau O Ottawa a Bruce Huron Grey Dufferin D W ellington Simcoe Peel Muskoka York Kawartha Lakes Toronto Haliburton Toronto Oshawa Durham Peterborough Hastings Northumberland Frontenac Prince Edward Lanark Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Leeds and Grenville Lennox and Addington Windsor Lambton Chatham- Kent Perth Middlesex London Elgin Waterloo Halton Kitchener H Hamilton H Hamilton Brant Niagara Oxford H Haldimand- and- Norfolk Essex Proportion of population aged 65+, 2006 (per 1,000) (number of CDs) >= (16) < (17) < (16) Ontario Median Proportion= per 1,000 Source: Statistics Canada, Population Estimates 2006.

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