Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to SUMMARY REPORT

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to 2024-25 SUMMARY REPORT"

Transcription

1 Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to SUMMARY REPORT Prepared by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ABN: Queens Parade, Clifton Hill, Victoria, 3068 Telephone: (03) ; Facsimile: (03) March 2015 TON /Economic forecasts-tony/2015/march

2 While the National Institute endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material is accurate it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information.

3 1. Introduction This summary report presents projections of Victorian electricity sales and maximum demand projections to This report mainly focuses on the baseline scenario. The forecasts in this report build on and extend previous modelling work by NIEIR over the last 20 years. These projections of energy were prepared in February 2015 and incorporate fiscal actuals. Maximum demand projections were prepared in February 2015 and incorporate the Victorian operational peak demand up to the end of February Key aspects of the forecasting methodologies, including electricity price assumptions and policy impacts on energy sale and Victorian maximum demands, are presented in the main report. This includes assumptions regarding small-scale photovoltaic systems, electric vehicles and other Federal and State efficiency measures. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 3

4 2. The economic outlook for Australia to Introduction This section provides an outline of the economic outlook for Australia to Figure 2.1 shows the outlook for Australian gross domestic product to for the Base scenario. Figure 2.1: Australian GDP growth Base scenario (annual per cent change) Note: Financial years ending June. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 4

5 2.2 The world and national outlook Introduction This section provides a brief introduction to the outlook for the world and Australian economies World economy In the short-term ( ), we expect there will be an acceleration in world GDP growth. This reflects a number of factors, including: the recovery in the United States economy; the adoption of an aggressive monetary stimulus in Japan and the Euro region; and the process of working off excess capacity created by the GFC. In the short-term world GDP growth is expected to be around 3.5 per cent. In the medium-term (2017 to 2021), world growth is likely to slow to around 2.7 per cent. This partly reflects the likely end of quantitative easing of monetary policies in the developed economies and the associated increase in interest rates. Capital flows that poured into the developing economies will be reversed and could lead to crisis in these developing economies The Australian economy To some extent growth in the Australian economy will mirror the world economy. In the short-term, reductions in interest rates and commodity prices and relatively low inflation will maintain real income growth, while the housing market recovery will assist growth. However, the positive impacts will be offset by: the decline in mining investment; contractionary fiscal policy flowing from the declines in the terms of trade; increased import penetration from the lagged adjustment to the high exchange rate regime of 2011 to 2014, including the end of motor vehicle production; the East Coast gas shortages associated with the Gladstone LNG plants further undermining competitiveness; and current household debt saturation will prevent the current housing prices and activity recovery having the same wealth increase in consumption expenditure growth that characterised the 1995 to 2007 period. As a result, the Australian economy trend rate of growth over the next two to three years is likely to be near 2.5 per cent, well below historical trends. The unemployment rate will steadily rise towards 7 per cent and above. As a consequence the level of migration will be reduced. The population growth will fall to 1.4 per cent in 2017 and 1.2 per cent in 2021, compared to 1.8 per cent growth in Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 5

6 As the rest of the world resorts to quantitative easing policies over 2015 and, therefore, further falls in medium-term interest rates could see the currency return to about 80 to 85 cents in This may not last however. Australian current account deficit will return to around 8 per cent of GDP as a result of the current falls in the terms of trade. The trough in the exchange rate is likely to be around 2017 to 2019 when the easing of monetary expansion in the developed countries results in increasing world medium-term interest rates and a recovery of currencies. The Australian dollar could well fall to the 40 to 50 cent range to the US dollar. The lagged adjustment to the current fall in the $US/$A exchange rate plus falls in the weighted average exchange rate from 2016 onwards will produce inflation rates in the 3 to 4 per cent range from 2017 to This will be a major focus of policy. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 6

7 3. The outlook for Victoria to Introduction This section outlines the economic outlook for Victoria to Summary of scenario Figure 3.1 shows the outlook for Victorian GSP growth over the period to for the Base scenario. Between and Victorian GSP growth is projected to average 2.3 per cent per annum under the Base scenario. Figure 3.1: Victorian GSP growth Base scenario to Source: NIEIR and ABS. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 7

8 3.3 The base scenario outlook for Victoria to Gross state product (GSP) Victorian gross state product is forecast to increase by 1.0 per cent in , following growth of 1.5 per cent in Victorian GSP growth accelerates in and to around 2.0 per cent in both years. The increase in GSP growth reflects: rises in private dwelling investment expenditure in and ; strong increases in private business investment in and ; and steady but modest growth in private final consumption expenditure. Total new dwelling approvals in Victoria fell from around 60,500 units in to around 48,600 in Over new dwelling approvals recovered reaching around 54,400 units. Over , Victorian new dwelling approvals could reach over 60,000 units again. These movements will support Victorian private dwelling expenditure over and A sustained high exchange rate regime over the last few years has adversely affected the competitiveness of Australia s manufacturing sector. Victorian manufacturing has also been adversely affected and this has led to the closure of some establishments operating in Victoria. The industries particularly affected include: metal product manufacturing; petroleum and chemical manufacturing; transport equipment manufacturing; and textiles, clothing and footwear manufacturing. Alcoa s Point Henry aluminium smelter closed in mid-2014 and followed closures by Bluescope Steel at Westernport. Ford Australia, Holden and Toyota announced the closure of their motor vehicle assembly plant in 2013 and These closures, over 2016 and 2017, will have significant impacts on Victorian GSP growth. Victorian GSP growth accelerates to 2.5 per cent in and 2.4 per cent in Between and Victorian GSP growth averages 1.8 per cent per annum. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 8

9 4. Electricity sales and customer number forecasts to 2025 This section presents electricity sales forecasts by class to 2025 for Victoria. Forecasts are presented on a calendar year basis to 2025 for the base scenario. 4.1 The baseline scenario Under the baseline scenario, Victoria s gross regional product grows by 2.3 per cent in average terms between 2015 and Population rises by an average rate of 1.2 per cent between 2015 and Table 4.1 shows projections of electricity sales by class for fiscal years to Figure 4.1 shows the average growth by class for the base scenario between 2015 and Victorian electricity sales fall by 7.3 per cent in and 1.6 per cent in The large fall in reflects the closure of Alcoa s Point Henry aluminium smelter. Residential electricity sales fall across to Commercial electricity sales increase slowly across the forecast period. Falling residential sales and slow growth in commercial sales in Victoria is partly due to the lagged effect of electricity price increases and further growth in small scale PV systems. Total installations of small-scale PV rise by nearly 200,000 between and Industrial electricity sales fall out to , initially reflecting the closure of the Point Henry smelter in July The closure of the motor vehicle assembly plant in Victoria by Ford Australia and Toyota also impact on industrial sales. Ford in Campbellfield and Geelong are set to close in October 2016 and Toyota at Altona by the end of The recovery in Victorian electricity sales growth (2018 to 2025) in Victoria reflects a number of factors: improved competitiveness of Victorian manufacturing as a result of the fall in the Australian dollar; the gradual impact of sustained falls in electricity prices between 2015 and 2020; and continued customer growth in Victoria reflecting gross state product and population growth. Total Victorian electricity sales growth averages 0.5 per cent per annum between and Table 4.2 shows the industry composition of Victorian electricity sales to across 20 industry sectors, as well as residential and public lighting sales. Table 4.3 shows total Victorian transmission point connection energy and Victorian operational demand. This table allows a comparison to be made with AEMO s 2014 Victorian forecasts of energy to Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 9

10 Figure 4.1: Victorian electricity sales growth by class base scenario Average annual growth 2015 to 2025 Figure 4.2: Total Victorian operational demand NIEIR and AEMO (2014) Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 10

11 Table 4.1 Victorian electricity sales by class (GWh) Residential Commercial Industrial Public lighting Total Distribution business sales (1) Percentage change Compound percentage change Note: (1) Estimated distribution sales by NIEIR. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 11

12 5. Maximum demand forecasts for Victoria to Historical trends in maximum demand Table 5.1 shows maximum demands events for recent summers for Victoria as measured by operational demand as generated. This includes demand met by scheduled generation, semischeduled generation and significant non-scheduled generation. The summer had a significant heat wave during mid-january with four consecutive above 40 degree days from 14 th to the 17 th. However, the maximum demand of 10,312 megawatts occurred later on the 28 th when there were likely more people back from holidays and returning to work. In contrast, the summer maximum demand only reached 8,626 megawatts (indicative as of February 14 th, 2015). This is partly due to very mild weather conditions across the whole of the summer and during peak demand. Other factors include the closure of the Point Henry smelter, and further installations of commercial and residential photovoltaics. Table 5.1 Observed maximum demand for recent summers Operational demand (as generated) Temperature (degrees Celsius) Summer Date Demand (megawatts) Time Max Min Ave Thursday, 22 January ,626 4:00 PM Tuesday, 28 January ,312 4:30 PM Tuesday, 12 March ,775 4:30 PM Tuesday, 24 January ,177 4:00 PM Tuesday, 1 February ,916 12:30 PM Monday, 11 January ,107 4:00 PM Thursday, 29 January ,493 12:30 PM Monday, 17 March ,818 4:00 PM Tuesday, 16 January ,062 3:00 PM Friday, 24 February ,730 4:00 PM Source: AEMO, BOM. Over recent years the growth in summer maximum demand has moderated. Much of this history is consistent with the increased installation and use of air conditioners in homes and businesses in Victoria. Table 5.2 shows the percentage of households in Victoria with at least one air conditioner installed has increased from 36.9 to 78.4 since Table 5.2 Air conditioners in dwellings Year Per cent of households with air conditioners, Victoria Source: ABS Catalogue No various releases. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 12

13 Moreover, these statistics are consistent with confidential data compiled by major suppliers of air conditioners on sales in Victoria. These data shows that sales increased roughly eight fold between early 1990s and late 2000s. The sales of air conditioners rose substantially through the late-1990s and again mid-2000s. While levels of sales have moderated slightly in recent years, they remain at historically high levels. Notwithstanding the reduced number of sales in last few years, the aggregate stock of air conditioners installed in Victoria is likely to have continued to grow. This will be from installations into dwellings previously without an air conditioner including new dwellings; and from households and business installing and using two or more air conditioners. Sales are expected to grow at a more modest level over the next 10 years compared to historical sales, as the market trends toward saturation (on a households with at least one air conditioner basis). 5.2 Projections of maximum demand Going forward, the evolution in maximum demand will reflect dynamics in temperature insensitive demand and temperature sensitivity of demand. On this basis, the forecasts of temperature insensitive demand and temperature sensitivities will be critically important to forecasting underlying maximum demand. Figure 5.1 presents projections of maximum demand for 10%, 50% and 90% probability of exceedance levels using the above drivers, and including post-modelling adjustments. Maximum demand at 10% probability of exceedance level is projected to increase, on average, by around 1.6 per cent per annum over the period to Maximum demand is expected to grow moderately in the short term, before stronger growth in the long term. The maximum demand at 10% probability of exceedance grew by 1.4 per cent over the to , while it is projected to grow less at 0.76 per cent from to Figure 5.1: Projections of maximum demand at 10%, 50% and 90% probability of exceedance levels (megawatts) Source: NIEIR s Peaksim Model. Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 13

14 Table 5.3 Historical and projected maximum demand including exogenous adjustments Native MD 90% PoE 50% PoE 10% PoE ,520 9,131 9,673 10, ,146 9,162 9,743 10, ,979 9,370 9,979 10, ,207 9,399 10,027 10, ,793 9,000 9,636 10, ,357 9,119 9,798 10, ,687 8,812 9,546 10, ,067 9,717 10, ,918 9,715 10, ,048 9,808 10, ,265 10,017 11, ,392 10,197 11, ,395 10,269 11, ,515 10,474 11, ,768 10,694 11, ,879 10,905 12, ,182 11,104 12,384 Notes: Source: 10%, 50%, 90% PoE hindcast estimates to then projection from onwards. Maximum demand is native as generated. Includes scheduled, semi-scheduled, significant non-scheduled and small non-scheduled generation. NIEIR. Figure 5.2: Victorian native maximum demand forecasts NIEIR and AEMO Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to Summary report 14

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT. For the National Electricity Market

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT. For the National Electricity Market NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT For the National Electricity Market 2013 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT Important Notice This document is subject to an important disclaimer that limits

More information

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMATION PAPER. National Electricity Forecasting

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMATION PAPER. National Electricity Forecasting ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMATION PAPER National Electricity Forecasting 2012 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INFORMATION PAPER Published by AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator ABN 94 072 010 327 Copyright 2012 AEMO ii

More information

Energy consumption forecasts

Energy consumption forecasts Pty Ltd ABN 85 082 464 622 Level 2 / 21 Kirksway Place Hobart TAS 7000 www.auroraenergy.com.au Enquiries regarding this document should be addressed to: Network Regulatory Manager Pty Ltd GPO Box 191 Hobart

More information

APPENDIX 15. Review of demand and energy forecasting methodologies Frontier Economics

APPENDIX 15. Review of demand and energy forecasting methodologies Frontier Economics APPENDIX 15 Review of demand and energy forecasting methodologies Frontier Economics Energex regulatory proposal October 2014 Assessment of Energex s energy consumption and system demand forecasting procedures

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING 2011 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING Information Paper - December 2011 Published by AEMO Australian Energy Market Operator ABN 94 072 010 327 Copyright 2011 AEMO AEMO 2011 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING

More information

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY

PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy

More information

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER

Massachusetts Department of Revenue. Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing. December 11, 2013. Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Massachusetts Department of Revenue Briefing Book FY2015 Consensus Revenue Estimate Hearing December 11, 2013 Presented by: Amy Pitter COMMISSIONER Kazim P. Ozyurt DIRECTOR OFFICE OF TAX POLICY ANALYSIS

More information

ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET

ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET in Canada Projections to 2025 JUNE 2015 ENGINEERING LABOUR MARKET in Canada Projections to 2025 Prepared by: MESSAGE FROM THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Dear colleagues: Engineers

More information

Background. Key points

Background. Key points Background Employment forecasts over the three years to March 2018 1 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority

More information

5 Taxes on consumption

5 Taxes on consumption 5 Taxes on consumption The federal government applies a number of different indirect taxes, primarily targeted at consumers, including sales taxes, excise duties and import tariffs. 35 Taxes on consumption

More information

Steel Production in Czech Republic. Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015

Steel Production in Czech Republic. Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015 Steel Production in Czech Republic Eurofer Economic Committee Meeting Brussels April 2015 Main Economic Indicators % Change Czech Republic 10 11 12 13 14 15E 16P Private Consumption 1,0 0.2-1,8 0,4 1,7

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

APPENDIX A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TABLE

APPENDIX A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TABLE APPENDIX A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TABLE The economic forecasts and assumptions underpinning the 2013-14 Budget are subject to variation. This section analyses the impact of variations in these parameters

More information

Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures

Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures Provisional Translation Economic Outlook for FY2005 and Basic Economic and Fiscal Management Measures December 20th, 2004 Cabinet Approval 1. Main Economic Indicators for FY2004 and FY2005 Gross domestic

More information

The President s Report to the Board of Directors

The President s Report to the Board of Directors The President s Report to the Board of Directors May 5, 2015 CURRENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS - May 5, 2015 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show that economic growth continued to slow in

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

APRIL 2014 ELECTRICITY PRICES AND NETWORK COSTS

APRIL 2014 ELECTRICITY PRICES AND NETWORK COSTS APRIL 2014 ELECTRICITY PRICES AND NETWORK COSTS 1 WHAT MAKES UP THE RETAIL ELECTRICITY BILL? Retail electricity bills are made up of a number of components: Wholesale costs reflecting electricity generation

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

Renewable Energy in Victoria

Renewable Energy in Victoria Renewable Energy in Victoria report 2012 Executive summary The Renewable Energy in Victoria 2012 report provides an overview of Victoria s electricity generation from renewable energy sources in the 2012

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2015

Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2015 Catalogue no. 11-626-X No. 053 ISSN 1927-503X ISBN 978-0-660-03734-9 Economic Insights Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: Fall 2015 by Guy Gellatly Release date: November 12, 2015 How to obtain

More information

Possible future retail electricity price movements: 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2015

Possible future retail electricity price movements: 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2015 ELECTRICITY PRICE TRENDS FINAL REPORT Possible future retail electricity price movements: 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2015 22 March 2013 Reference: EPR0029 Electricity price trends report EMBARGO until 22 March

More information

The Economic Impacts of Reducing. Natural Gas and Electricity Use in Ontario

The Economic Impacts of Reducing. Natural Gas and Electricity Use in Ontario The Economic Impacts of Reducing Natural Gas and Electricity Use in Ontario Prepared for Blue Green Canada July 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary... i Key Findings... i Introduction...1 Secondary

More information

23822 - Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors: NAICS 2002 23511b - Plumbing: NAICS 1997

23822 - Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors: NAICS 2002 23511b - Plumbing: NAICS 1997 IBISWorld Executive Summary Industry Report 23822 - Plumbing, Heating, and Air-Conditioning Contractors: NAICS 2002 : NAICS 1997 DISCLAIMER This product has been supplied by IBISWorld Inc. ('IBISWorld')

More information

Statement to Parliamentary Committee

Statement to Parliamentary Committee Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement

More information

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT

PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT PENSIONS INVESTMENTS LIFE INSURANCE PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT INVESTMENT REPORT FOR PERSONAL RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNT () PRODUCTS WITH AN ANNUAL FUND MANAGEMENT CHARGE OF 1% - JULY 201 Thank

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Summer 2013 1 About the European Forecasting Network The European Forecasting Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions,

More information

COMMODITY PRICES AND THE TERMS OF TRADE

COMMODITY PRICES AND THE TERMS OF TRADE COMMODITY PRICES AND THE TERMS OF TRADE Introduction The global economic upswing since 2003 has spurred a sharp increase in world prices for resource commodities. Higher prices from recent contract negotiations

More information

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE

REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE REPORT OF THE MAINE STATE REVENUE FORECASTING COMMITTEE December 2013 Michael Allen, Chair Associate Commissioner for Tax Policy James Breece University of Maine System Melissa Gott State Budget Officer

More information

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF Prepared by the Staff of the JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION March 1, 2005 JCX-4-05 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...

More information

The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties. Tassos Haniotis

The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties. Tassos Haniotis 1. Introduction The 2024 prospects for EU agricultural markets: drivers and uncertainties Tassos Haniotis Director of Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations; Communication DG Agriculture and Rural

More information

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014 Ministry of Finance Chief Economist - Research, State Revenue and International Affairs June 2013 Forecasts of Macroeconomic Developments, State Revenues from Taxes and Revenue from Other Sources, 2013-2014

More information

VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS. May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov

VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS. May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov AGENDA» Review customer and system usage trends in Vermont» Review and discuss the forecast

More information

Insurance Market Outlook

Insurance Market Outlook Munich Re Economic Research May 2014 Premium growth is again slowly gathering momentum After a rather restrained 2013 (according to partly preliminary data), we expect growth in global primary insurance

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast

More information

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth

CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth 93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised

More information

COMMISSION OPINION. of XXX. on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY

COMMISSION OPINION. of XXX. on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, XXX [ ](2013) XXX draft COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EN EN COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS

More information

AEMC Electricity Price Trends report released

AEMC Electricity Price Trends report released AEMC Electricity Price Trends report released AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET COMMISSION LEVEL 5, 201 ELIZABETH STREET SYDNEY NSW 2000 T: 02 8296 7800 E: AEMC@AEMC.GOV.AU W: WWW.AEMC.GOV.AU The Australian Energy

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

1 Fiscal strategy and outlook

1 Fiscal strategy and outlook 1 Fiscal strategy and outlook Features The 2015-16 Budget delivers the Government s election commitments, with key measures to revitalise the State economy and frontline service delivery, especially in

More information

Economic Review, April 2012

Economic Review, April 2012 Economic Review, April 2012 Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest

More information

Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector. - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar

Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector. - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar 1 Factors affecting the inbound tourism sector - the impact and implications of the Australian dollar

More information

The following reports were prepared independent of the

The following reports were prepared independent of the september 2012 173 APPENDIX H Independent Analysis of Economic Forecasts and Sales Tax Revenue The following reports were prepared independent of the Wake County Transit Plan, but are included here for

More information

Budget priorities: cut company tax, invest in infrastructure and balance budget within five years.

Budget priorities: cut company tax, invest in infrastructure and balance budget within five years. Ai Group Survey Business Priorities for the 2014-15 Federal Budget Budget priorities: cut company tax, invest in infrastructure and balance budget within five years. 4 May 2014 The top three priorities

More information

Statistical Bulletin. Quarterly National Accounts, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015

Statistical Bulletin. Quarterly National Accounts, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 Statistical Bulletin Quarterly National Accounts, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 Coverage: UK Date: 30 September 2015 Geographical Area: UK and GB Theme: Economy Office for National Statistics 1 Main points

More information

Electric Load Forecast

Electric Load Forecast Electric Load Forecast Fiscal 2013 to Fiscal 2033 Load and Market Forecasting Energy Planning and Economic Development BC Hydro 2012 Forecast December 2012 PAGE 1 Tables of Contents Executive Summary...

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow

07 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow 7 14 BUSINESS-CYCLE CONDITIONS Gas Prices Not a Risk to Growth by Robert Hughes, Senior Research Fellow Gas prices 15 percent jump in six months may be painful at the pump but is moderate by historical

More information

A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off

A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted

More information

CBA mortgage book secure

CBA mortgage book secure Determined to be better than we ve ever been. Australian residential housing and mortgages CBA mortgage book secure 9 September 2010 Commonwealth Bank of Australia ACN 123 123 124 Overview Concerns of

More information

HOW BAD IS THE CURRENT RECESSION? LABOUR MARKET DOWNTURNS SINCE THE 1960s

HOW BAD IS THE CURRENT RECESSION? LABOUR MARKET DOWNTURNS SINCE THE 1960s HOW BAD IS THE CURRENT RECESSION? LABOUR MARKET DOWNTURNS SINCE THE 1960s Executive summary The New Zealand economy experienced a fall in real GDP over the five quarters to March 2009 and further falls

More information

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Vegetable Imports

The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Vegetable Imports The Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Vegetable Imports This paper examines whether movement in the exchange rate of the Australia dollar is the major explanatory factor for changes in the level of

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016. Winter 2014/15

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016. Winter 2014/15 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016 Winter 2014/15 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information

Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015

Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 2015 March 2015 Why Treasury Yields Are Projected to Remain Low in 5 March 5 PERSPECTIVES Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Gabriele Oriolo Analyst Global Asset Allocation Research While

More information

Convergence Programme Denmark 2015

Convergence Programme Denmark 2015 Convergence Programme Denmark 2015 March 2015 Index 1. Challenges, Goals and Strategy towards 2020... 3 1.1 The macroeconomic scenario towards 2020... 3 1.2 Goals and strategy towards 2020... 6 2. The

More information

The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy

The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy The NIME Economic Outlook for the World Economy A Medium-Term Outlook for the World Economy 5 - Focus Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and Economic Growth August 5 Federal Planning Bureau Economic analyses

More information

18 ECB STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

18 ECB STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE Box 1 STYLISED FACTS OF MONEY AND CREDIT OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE Over the past three decades, the growth rates of MFI loans to the private sector and the narrow monetary aggregate M1 have displayed relatively

More information

Economic Snapshot January 2013

Economic Snapshot January 2013 January 2013 In summary January saw 2013 begin on a good note with strong gains on local markets. In percentage terms the Australian share market rose approximately 5%. This means the market has risen

More information

Financial Highlights IFRS

Financial Highlights IFRS 1 1 st Quarter 2011 Highlights (vs 1st Quarter 2010): Group turnover grows by 25.5% EBITDA of 103.8 million, up by 43.3% Net profits of 51.4 million, up by 59.6% Net debts down by 75 million Net Debt /

More information

Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations

Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Key points 1. The Japanese economy and IS balance trends From a macroeconomic perspective, the current account balance weighs the Japanese economy

More information

Past and projected future components of electricity supply to the ACT, and resultant emissions intensity of electricity supplied

Past and projected future components of electricity supply to the ACT, and resultant emissions intensity of electricity supplied Past and projected future components of electricity supply to the ACT, and resultant emissions intensity of electricity supplied transport community industrial & mining carbon & energy Prepared for: ACT

More information

Automotive manufacturing leads the UK economy in productivity growth

Automotive manufacturing leads the UK economy in productivity growth Automotive manufacturing leads the UK economy in productivity growth We are used to the idea that the UK economy has exhibited a productivity puzzle since the crisis of 2008 with employment remaining strong

More information

STATEMENT 7: DEBT MANAGEMENT

STATEMENT 7: DEBT MANAGEMENT STATEMENT 7: DEBT MANAGEMENT This statement discusses debt management, including maintaining the Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) market and the proposed investment of financial assets in the Future

More information

Recent Trends in Superannuation Fund Assets

Recent Trends in Superannuation Fund Assets Recent Trends in Superannuation Fund Assets The assets of superannuation funds have increased rapidly in the 99s. Along with managed funds more generally, this growth has been considerably faster than

More information

HW 2 Macroeconomics 102 Due on 06/12

HW 2 Macroeconomics 102 Due on 06/12 HW 2 Macroeconomics 102 Due on 06/12 1.What are the three important macroeconomic goals about which most economists, and society at large, agree? a. economic growth, full employment, and low interest rates

More information

Change in regulated retail gas prices from 1 July 2015

Change in regulated retail gas prices from 1 July 2015 Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal FACT SHEET Change in regulated retail gas prices from 1 July 2015 June 2015 Across NSW, regulated retail gas prices will decrease by an average 3.9% (including

More information

Forecasting Business Investment Using the Capital Expenditure Survey

Forecasting Business Investment Using the Capital Expenditure Survey Forecasting Business Investment Using the Capital Expenditure Survey Natasha Cassidy, Emma Doherty and Troy Gill* Business investment is a key driver of economic growth and is currently around record highs

More information

SEPTEMBER 2015 ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1

SEPTEMBER 2015 ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 SEPTEMBER 2015 STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 1. EURO AREA OUTLOOK: OVERVIEW AND KEY FEATURES The recovery in activity in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit at a somewhat

More information

Monetary and Financial Trends First Quarter 2011. Table of Contents

Monetary and Financial Trends First Quarter 2011. Table of Contents Financial Stability Directorate Monetary and Financial Trends First Quarter 2011 Table of Contents Highlights... 1 1. Monetary Aggregates... 3 2. Credit Developments... 4 3. Interest Rates... 7 4. Domestic

More information

Sovereign wealth funds and the exchange rate: comparing resource booms in Australia, Chile and Norway

Sovereign wealth funds and the exchange rate: comparing resource booms in Australia, Chile and Norway Sovereign wealth funds and the exchange rate: comparing resource booms in, Phil Garton 1 The idea of establishing a sovereign wealth as a response to the challenges posed by the resource boom has attracted

More information

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA

THE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,

More information

(April 1, 2015 June 30, 2015)

(April 1, 2015 June 30, 2015) Financial Results Summary of Consolidated Financial Results For the Three-month Period Ended June 30, 2015 (IFRS basis) (April 1, 2015 June 30, 2015) *This document is an English translation of materials

More information

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 MAJOR COMMODITIES. News & Development. For Private Circulation Only

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 MAJOR COMMODITIES. News & Development. For Private Circulation Only Wednesday, December 16, 2015 For Private Circulation Only MAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change Gold 5-Feb 25419 25190 25266-81 Gold (Oz) Feb

More information

THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research

THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences. Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF FINLAND 1990-1993: causes and consequences Jaakko Kiander Labour Institute for Economic Research CONTENTS Causes background The crisis Consequences Role of economic policy Banking

More information

TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW

TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW OVERVIEW 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS OVERVIEW Themes.... 3 Stabilizing Public Services.... 3 Plan to Return to Balance.... 4 Jobs, Economic Growth and Diversification.... 5 Expense.... 5 Revenue... 6 Debt Management

More information

Chapter 4: Ageing pressures and spending

Chapter 4: Ageing pressures and spending Chapter : Ageing pressures and spending Overview Ageing of the Australian population will contribute to substantial pressure on government spending over the next years. Total spending is projected to increase

More information

Economic forecast mid-year 2015 - Germany

Economic forecast mid-year 2015 - Germany Economic forecast mid-year 2015 - Germany Berlin (gtai) The German economy is on the rise, according to Sigmar Gabriel, Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy. As a result of rising wages and increasing

More information

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35 LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35 Eurogas is the association representing the European gas wholesale, retail and distribution sectors. Founded in 1990, its members are some 50 companies and associations

More information

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist

The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but

More information

3 The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy

3 The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy 3 The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy Key points The significant fall in oil prices since mid-214 should increase overall UK economic activity as the cost of production decreases for businesses,

More information

World Manufacturing Production

World Manufacturing Production Quarterly Report World Manufacturing Production Statistics for Quarter III, 2013 Statistics Unit www.unido.org/statistics Report on world manufacturing production, Quarter III, 2013 UNIDO Statistics presents

More information

Federal Budget 2014. What the Federal Budget means Health sector

Federal Budget 2014. What the Federal Budget means Health sector Federal Budget 2014 What the Federal Budget means Health sector About NAB Health NAB Health s market leading team of specialist bankers work exclusively with businesses and professionals in the healthcare

More information

Statement by Dean Baker, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (www.cepr.net)

Statement by Dean Baker, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (www.cepr.net) Statement by Dean Baker, Co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (www.cepr.net) Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, hearing on China and the Future of Globalization.

More information

Please look at page 2. For the fiscal 2014 first quarter, sales reached 534 billion yen, a new high for the historical first quarter sales, based on

Please look at page 2. For the fiscal 2014 first quarter, sales reached 534 billion yen, a new high for the historical first quarter sales, based on 0 Please look at page 2. For the fiscal 2014 first quarter, sales reached 534 billion yen, a new high for the historical first quarter sales, based on the fuel cost adjustments to gas prices and increased

More information

GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 2013

GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 2013 GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK 213 FACT PACK GUY TURNER HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND COMMODITIES APRIL 26, 213 GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 APRIL 213 1 INTRODUCTION This year s Global Renewable

More information

Fastest growing occupations

Fastest growing occupations Fastest growing occupations During the period from 2006 to 2011, the number of Education aides grew strongly by 27.4 per cent or 2,025 workers, with growth distributed across Melbourne (Figure 7.39). The

More information

CURRENT ANALYSIS May 2014

CURRENT ANALYSIS May 2014 CURRENT ANALYSIS May 14 A Look at the Recovery of the Canadian Auto Sector since the 08-09 Recession Chart 1: Motor vehicle production and Canada & US auto sales millions of units 3. Canadian car & truck

More information

Energy White Paper at a glance

Energy White Paper at a glance and Science Energy White Paper at a glance WWW. i Energy White Paper at a glance The Australian Government made an election commitment to deliver an Energy White Paper to give industry and consumers certainty

More information

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

Australia's experience with capital flows under different exchange rate regimes:

Australia's experience with capital flows under different exchange rate regimes: Australia's experience with capital flows under different exchange rate regimes: Note for the CGFS Working Group on Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies Australia's experience with capital flows

More information

2013 2017 Gas Access Arrangement Review (GAAR) SP AusNet s Revised Access Arrangement Proposal (RAAP) RAAP Chapter 1: Demand Forecasts

2013 2017 Gas Access Arrangement Review (GAAR) SP AusNet s Revised Access Arrangement Proposal (RAAP) RAAP Chapter 1: Demand Forecasts 2013 2017 Gas Access Arrangement Review (GAAR) SP AusNet s Revised Access Arrangement Proposal (RAAP) RAAP Chapter 1: Demand Forecasts Submitted: 9 November 2012 RAAP Chapter 1: Demand Forecasts This chapter

More information

2013 Economic and Revenue Forecast Update for the City of Omaha, Nebraska

2013 Economic and Revenue Forecast Update for the City of Omaha, Nebraska 2013 Economic and Revenue Forecast Update for the City of Omaha, Nebraska Kenneth A. Kriz Regents Distinguished Professor of Public Finance Director, Kansas Public Finance Center July 20, 2013 Background

More information

REGISTERED NURSE: OCCUPATIONAL SKILL SHORTAGE ASSESSMENT

REGISTERED NURSE: OCCUPATIONAL SKILL SHORTAGE ASSESSMENT NOVEMBER 2005 REGISTERED NURSE: OCCUPATIONAL SKILL SHORTAGE ASSESSMENT Current Situation: Recruitment and retention difficulties Short-term Outlook: Recruitment and retention difficulties (improving) 1

More information

44 ECB STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LIGHT OF THE CURRENT LOW-YIELD ENVIRONMENT

44 ECB STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LIGHT OF THE CURRENT LOW-YIELD ENVIRONMENT Box STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LIGHT OF THE CURRENT LOW-YIELD ENVIRONMENT Stock market developments are important for the formulation of monetary policy for several reasons. First, changes in stock

More information

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015

Spain Economic Outlook. Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 Spain Economic Outlook Rafael Doménech EUI-nomics 2015 Debating the Economic Conditions in the Euro Area and Beyond Firenze, 24th of April, 2015 The outlook one year ago: the risks were to the upside for

More information

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016

EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016 EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2015 and 2016 Spring 2015 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001

More information