Forecasting Ottawa s Economic Future

Transcription

1 Forecasting Ottawa s Economic Future Never Assume that the Ottawa-Gatineau Economy is Down and Out Mario Lefebvre Director, Centre for Municipal Studies Chateau Laurier, Ottawa October 31, 2012

2 Uneven Growth in Global Economy (% change, real GDP) Japan EU North America Latin America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific (excl Japan) Source: Consensus Economics

3 Canadian Outlook The Canadian economy has rebounded nicely from the recession. The job level is now greater than its pre-recession peak and our commodities are in high-demand. But the recession has left scars, including government deficits. Moreover, consumers debt level has never been so high. Overall, a soft domestic economy and turbulent external environment will hold GDP growth to 2.2% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013.

4 Real GDP Growth Rate Canada Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

5 Federal and Provincial Gov t Balances (as a Share of GDP ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets.

6 Ottawa-Gatineau: Highlights Belt-tightening by the federal government is never good news for the Ottawa-Gatineau economy. But this area s economy has proven resilient before and will prove it again. Prospects are bright over the long term because the federal public administration sector remains on solid foundation. Attracting people will be a key challenge for cities in this country, but Ottawa-Gatineau is ready for it.

7 Labour Market Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) Employment (000s) Unemployment Rate Source: Statistics Canada.

8 Employment Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

9 Public Administration Employment Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

10 Unemployment Rate Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

11 Disposable Income Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

12 Retail Sales Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

13 Housing Starts Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5, f 13f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC.

14 Monthly Existing Home Sales SAAR ( ) 4,000 3,500 Nepean/Kanata (L) Orleans (L) Ottawa (R) 6,000 5,500 3,000 5,000 2,500 4,500 2,000 4,000 1, ,500 Sources: The Canadian Real Estate Association; The Conference Board of Canada.

15 Median Existing Home Prices Seasonally adjusted ( ) 375, , , , , , , , , ,000 Ottawa Nepean/Kanata Orleans Sources: The Canadian Real Estate Association; The Conference Board of Canada.

16 Sales-to-Existing Listings Ratio Seasonally Adjusted ( ) Ottawa Nepean/Kanata Orleans Sources: The Canadian Real Estate Association; The Conference Board of Canada.

17 Real GDP Growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 13f Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

18 Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Hamilton Toronto Québec Halifax Montréal Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

19 Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Edmonton Calgary Regina Vancouver Saskatoon Winnipeg Victoria Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

20 Ottawa vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2013) Toronto Hamilton Québec Halifax Montréal Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

21 Ottawa vs. West (Real GDP Growth, 2013) Calgary Saskatoon Edmonton Regina Vancouver Victoria Winnipeg Ottawa-Gatineau Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

22 Longer Term Prospects Cities have to stop trying too hard to be overly creative. Not every area can be home to a thriving high tech sector. Creating an environment where people want to come and live has to be the top priority. Ottawa-Gatineau has a sound quality of life to offer, making it one of the top magnets for people among Canada s largest urban centres.

23 City Magnets According to the 2006 Census, 2/3 of Canada s population growth between 2001 and 2006 was attributable to net immigration. Slowly but steadily, net immigration will account for a larger share of Canada s population growth. Therefore, if a city is unable to attract people, it will be faced with weak population growth down the road, which does not bode well for its economic potential.

24 City Magnets The people go where the jobs are paradigm is slowly changing and we believe that it will keep on changing. Given the aging of the population and the impact that this will have on the labour force, more and more businesses will choose to locate in cities with a relatively big pool of skilled labour, allowing them to grow over the short, medium and long term. As a result, a city that struggles to attract people will also struggle to attract businesses yet another blow to the future prosperity of that city.

25 Weights of Each Category in University- Educated s Decision to Move Society 20% Economy 13% Innovation 19% Education 21% Housing 7% Health 8% Environment 12%

26 Final Ranking: Who Is Attractive and Who Is Not 1.0 A B Calgary Waterloo Ottawa Richmond Hill Vancouver St. John's Edmonton Victoria Markham Vaughan Kingston Oakville Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

27 Population growth Ottawa-Gatineau ( ) f 15f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

28 Population with French as a First Language According to the 2006 Census, workers with French as a first language posted a stronger level of average income and a lower unemployment rate than their respective provincial average. These workers, particularly outside Québec, are playing a key role in the public administration, education and health sectors. There is one big concern for this population: it is aging rapidly in some parts of the country.

29 The Conference Board of Canada