Global Energy Markets Overview. Jason Feer Argus Media Ltd Pacific Economic Cooperation Council 17 May 2006

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1 Global Energy Markets Overview Jason Feer Argus Media Ltd Pacific Economic Cooperation Council 17 May 2006

2 Introduction Argus, who we are & what we do Today s energy markets Why are prices high? What does it mean for the region? The Role of China The Future

3 About Argus Media Independent Global Price Reporting and Analysis Largest independent pricing service More than 35 years of experience Offices in London, Singapore, Tokyo, Beijing Moscow, Washington, Dubai, Houston Over 200 employees worldwide Pricing and analysis of all major global energy markets Global benchmarking Characterized by independence and analytical expertise

4 Today s Market Market Fundamentals Oil prices have been too low for years so they are high now Inadequate investment in production capacity, refining and shipping Mismatch between crude supply (abundant) and refining capacity (scarce) AND Sweet refining capacity (too much, especially in China) and growing sulphur content of crude Demand growth from China and the US (and India a little) Politics Sentiment Fear of the unknown Obsession with stock data Speculators? Increasing volatility, but not higher prices

5 OPEC Production Capacity OPEC Production Capacity OPEC Production

6 Global Refining Capacity Global Refining Capacity Global Product Demand

7 OPEC Production OPEC Production OPEC OPEC & Non Non OPEC OPEC Output Output 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Non Non OPEC OPEC Production OPEC Production OPEC Production OPEC s share of production has remained constant at about 40% Aug-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Nov-01 Feb-02 Feb-02 May-02 May-02 Aug-02 Aug-02 Nov-02 Nov-02 Feb-03 Feb-03 May-03 May-03 Aug-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 Feb-04 May-04 May-04 Aug-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 Feb-05 May-05 May-05

8 Why does politics matter? OPEC (or other producers) cannot make up for loss of a major oil producer This is a fundamental shift Excess capacity is wrong kind of crude China can t refine more sour crude Too much production capacity is in the wrong place Iraq Iran Nigeria Venezuela Politics has altered the structure of the market Markets are worried prices will go higher so they hedge as though it will High forward prices encourage physical buying now, which keeps pressure on prices Also attracts funds who think it indicates higher future prices

9 Asian Supply Main Producers 7,000 6,000 5,000 Asia Pac 4,000 China 3,000 2,000 1,000 Indonesia Australia Malaysia 0 Jul- Jul Dec- Dec May- May Oct- Oct Mar- Mar Aug- Aug Jan- Jan Jun- Jun Nov- Nov Apr- Apr Sep- Sep

10 Asian Demand China played major role in initial spike Strong growth in demand and little price sensitivity But demand growth is slowing India is growing but more slowly Japan demand is dropping slightly Region is fairly energy intensive and inefficient (except Japan, Korea, Singapore and Anzac) Subsidies Long period of low energy prices discouraged investment in efficient technologies Region imports 2/3 of oil supply and that will grow

11 Asian Structural Problems Subsidies encourage demand Send wrong signals Consumers are insulated from market conditions and do not adjust consumption accordingly So when prices rise, demand does not fall Distort markets Can lead to shortages Have limited benefit Subsidizing gasoline benefits wealthier automobile owners Diverts resources - Indonesia was spending more on fuel subsidies than development funding Governments are trapped Risk of civil unrest if subsidies are cut, but economic risks if they remain

12 What about alternatives? Cost is the problem Biodiesel, Ethanol, Fuel Cells, Wind, Solar, GTL, CTL High energy prices make alternatives more competitive Government has role to play Incentives to encourage development of new technologies Encourage consumption of renewables/alternatives Financial incentives subsidies to producers, tax breaks Government mandates Discourage fossil fuel consumption Carbon or BTU taxes Fuel efficiency requirements Change takes lots of time Infrastructure requirements are expensive and solutions take time to implement We are stuck with oil for a while longer

13 The role of China Emerging Consumer In 2004, passed Japan as 2nd leading oil market Growth in demand has flattened Driver of international markets Energy diplomat Chinese companies increasingly turning abroad for supply West Africa, Unocal, Sudan, FSU Emerging market LPG, fuel oil, crude are unregulated markets, gasoil and gasoline may be deregulated over time

14 Chinese Demand Patterns China market developing differently Preference for gasoil (diesel) over gasoline Reliance on trucks, rail, generators to compensate for poor electricity supply Demand growth heaviest in industry (compared to India where demand growth is in services and agriculture) Continued heavy use of fuel oil but this is flattening out Generating fuel and industrial use Being replaced by coal Gas also taking incremental demand Bulk of demand is in areas far from main production and refining areas Transportation systems are clogged Little appetite for strict environmental changes

15 Chinese Demand Has Driven Global Markets China demand growth has accounted for bulk of growth in world demand Chinese demand growth 300,000 b/d - 400,000 b/d in 2006 (estimate) 200,000 b/d in ,000 b/d in ,000 b/d in 2003 Heavy demand for West African crude Ongoing need for sweet crude Continued emphasis on building sweet refining capacity will ensure WAF imports continue to rise

16 Looking Ahead

17 The Future - Demand Demand to remain steady Chinese growth is slowing But in long run, it will continue to show demand growth that will be satisfied by imports US and global consumers have shown that they can take high prices (at least so far) Real prices still below record levels India showing signs of growth Economic reforms will lead to stronger growth in demand but will be 5-7% per year No real alternatives to oil-based economy in next 20+ years

18 The Future - Supply Supply will have trouble catching up Planning and investment cycles are long (3-7 years) Investment constraints to continue AG producers resistant to foreign investment Russian legal framework is uncertain Hard to build refineries in the US and Europe Non OPEC production will eventually top out North Sea, US Russia & FSU are possible exceptions Most of the world s available oil is in unstable and difficult regions AG, West Africa, FSU

19 The Future - Prices Robust demand and constrained supply is a formula for high prices OPEC no longer can make up for loss of a significant producer Crisis will have strong impact on prices Speculators can smell an opportunity but they increase volatility, not prices But beware the unknowable A sharp economic contraction could change this equation

20 Thank You

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