KEY ISSUES IN OIL INVENTORIES

Transcription

1 KEY ISSUES IN OIL INVENTORIES Third IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks Riyadh, 22 January, 2013 Joel R. Couse VP Market Analysis for Trading & Shipping TOTAL SA 1 WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE World Supply vs. Demand & Implied Stock Change (Qtrly, Mbd) Stock change (floating storage & gvt) forecast Stock change (industry) forecast Total Supply Total Demand Tighter 4Q than expected 3 mths ago (Saudi export reductions, other supply outages). Industry stocks draw, gov stocks rise. 84 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q (chgmbd) 2009 (chgmbd) 2010 (chgmbd) 2011 (chgmbd) 2012 (chgmbd) 2013 (chgmbd) Seasonal pattern of demand (weak 1H vs. 2H, plus economic trend) Steadily increasing supply (strong North American supply growth), offset by flat or falling OPEC supply trend (Iranian sanctions, gas penetration for power generation, export cuts) and by continued nonopec production issues (Sudan, Brazil, UK, etc.) Demand: Seasonal trends: weaker 1H vs. 2H In 1H, demand is compressed by weak economic growth as well as high & rising oil prices (impacts OECD demand mainly) Recovery in 2H12 (seasonal trend) demand averages 90 Mbd in 2H Supply: Strong overall OPEC crude production growth (+1.6 Mbd): sustained Saudi production (pledge to supply market), Libya recovery, new W.Af. fields, Iraq. In 2H, NonOPEC supply +0.6 Mbd, but Iran supply falls 0.9 Mbd, 3Q12 heavy N.Sea outages 4Q12 WAF outages, Kurdish losses, Saudi & Russian exports lower 2012 Stocks: Overall stockbuild during the year due to massive 1H OPEC surge. 1H12 heavy stockbuild (in part floating storage / gvt) due to weak demand 2H12 stockdraw due to seasonal increase of demand and lack of Iranian / North Sea / WAF & other barrels

2 2,000 1,500 1, Analyzing Oil Prices vs. Stocks historic stock data only help determine historic price relationships, but can help with forecasting Estimated [Supply Demand] (Kbd) Start with S/D balance and alternative scenario for supply 4,200,000 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 Estimated World Stocks (Kbls) Extrapolate historical stock levels from known data using S/D This is an example of use stock and S&D data ,000 1,500 2, S_WORLD_0D_WORLD_0 S_WORLD_1D_WORLD_1 Estimated World Cover (Days) Calculate stock cover (Stocks measured in days of demand) COVER_WORLD (Baseline) COVER_WORLD (Opec cuts 1Mbd) 3,0,000 3,200,000 3,000, C_STOCKS_WORLD (Baseline) C_STOCKS_WORLD (Opec cuts 1Mbd) Impact on Brent Prices ($/b) Extrapolate historical price correlation to stock cover, S/D, & call on OPEC supply. I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV BRENT (Baseline) BRENT (Opec cuts 1Mbd) Timeliness, accuracy, and completeness of data improve forecasting. Today s prices reflect today s stocks and anticipations of those tomorrow Uptodate and high frequency data help refine this process. TS / Market Analysis 3 WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE VS. STOCK CHANGES 94 World Supply vs. Demand & Implied Stock Change (Qtrly, Mbd) Global implied stockchange vs. known stocks (Mbd) Other to Balance Stock change (floating storage & gvt) forecast Stock change (industry) forecast Total Supply Total Demand Floating Storage Other NonOECD Saudi Arabia (Industry & Gov) Russia Industry Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q (chgmbd) 2009 (chgmbd) 2010 (chgmbd) 2011 (chgmbd) 2012 (chgmbd) 2013 (chgmbd) Singapore Industry China (Industry & Gov) & OECD Gov & OECD Industry Total implied change in stocks Since 4Q11, compiled stock data has confirmed world oil supply/demand balance NonOECD stocks have been a significant part of large global stock changes China alone has been the largest swing factor overall

3 GLOBAL IMPLIED STOCKCHANGE VS. KNOWN STOCKS 3.00 Global implied stockchange vs. known stocks (Mbd) Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 Other to Balance Floating Storage Other NonOECD Saudi Arabia (Industry & Gov) Russia Industry Singapore Industry China (Industry & Gov) & OECD Gov & OECD Industry Total implied change in stocks Good performance since 4Q11 is an exception, and not a typical situation Previous years show much larger deviations with no clear pattern Correct and complete data at all levels of the balance is still a longterm goal Improving JODI coverage of nonoecd countries is vital to this process WORLD OIL STOCK INDICATORS OVERALL AND BY REGION % % 2100 OECD as a share of the World Oil Demand vs. Oil Stocks for known data 57% 56% % 55% % % World Oil Stock Indicators industry (days of cover) % % % Ratio of OECD Stocks to Global Known Global Stocks known crude / feed stocks (ind) 51% Ratio Global of OECD known Demand product stocks Global (ind) 1700 Demand 65% 50% 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 Jan08 May08 Sep08 Jan09 May09 Sep09 Jan10 May10 Sep10 Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 As the OECD s share of world oil demand declines, so does its share of oil stocks Moreover, the shares appear to decline proportionally While coherent at an aggregate level, the experience on the ground is more ambiguous EU cutting stocks, US, China & Saudi Arabia building 53% 52%

4 WORLD OIL STOCK INDICATORS OVERALL AND CRUDE VS PRODUCTS World Oil Stock Indicators industry (days of cover) Global known crude / feed stocks (ind) Global known product stocks (ind) 41 Jan08 May08 Sep08 Jan09 May09 Sep09 Jan10 May10 Sep10 Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 WORLD OIL STOCK INDICATORS CRUDE STOCK TRENDS 30% Regional Shares of Stocks in Known World Stocks 70% 25% 65% Ratio of N.American crude stocks to world crude stocks 20% 60% Ratio of OECD Europe crude stocks to world crude stocks 15% 55% Ratio other crude stocks to world crude stocks 10% 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 50% stocks are tightening in the key international price setting market Largely linked to refinery closures but is this also reducing market flexibility? stocks loosening in the N.American market, but linked to new infrastructure

5 WORLD OIL STOCK INDICATORS OVERALL AND CRUDE VS PRODUCTS 00 58% % 3900 OECD as a share of the World vs. Product Stocks for known data 78% 76% % 74% % % % % 45 World Oil Stock Indicators industry (days of cover) % 43 66% Ratio of OECD to Known World Stocks Ratio of OECD to Known World Product Stocks 41 % 64% 1Q08 J F1Q09 M A 1Q10 M J 1Q11 J A S1Q12O N D Global known crude / feed stocks (ind) Global known product stocks (ind) Jan08 May08 Sep08 Jan09 May09 Sep09 Jan10 May10 Sep10 Jan11 May11 Sep11 Jan12 May12 Sep12 OECD share of world oil product stocks is declining while that for crude is stable At the same time, product stocks have shown greater volatility than crude This has contributed to surprising tensions on refinery margins 70% 68% REFINERY ENVIRONMENT HAS CHANGED IN TERMS OF PRODUCT STOCK MANAGEMENT Change of economic environment With low margins seen in past years, high cost environment and financing difficulties, refiners have tightened their product stocks Impact Lower product stocks => no cushion to absorb supply issues Upside spikes increase with events (Hurricane Sandy, Venezuela refinery outages, etc.) Supply issues in September Hurricane Isaac Amuay incident in Venezuela Other unplanned outages Consequences Backwardation on product prices becomes steeper than that on crude as refiners can t keep up with market requirements Strong, but temporary, improvement in refinery margins, particularly due to tension on gasoil supply Source : IEA & US DoE stocks

6 CONCLUSIONS Worldwide structural changes in stocks reflect changes in the underlying markets NonOECD stocks are increasingly important to the market because they represent a rising share of the overall stock volumes Stock trends in the key price setting markets continue to dominate oil market concerns However, with more Atlantic Basin crude moving east, Asian stock data will become increasingly pertinent to the Brent market Current prices reflect immediate stock levels and future expectations of stocks historical stock data explains past prices but not today s prices timely (high frequency), accurate, and complete stock plus S&D data allow us to better test price scenarios for the future 11