UK Gas Security Policy

Transcription

1 UK Gas Security Policy and international gas markets Dr Pierre Noël EPRG, University of Cambridge pn243 [at] cam.ac.uk London, 15 th February 2012

2 EPRG, University of Cambridge Economic & social science research in energy markets & policy electricity, gas and carbon. Supported by the UK Research Councils and:

3 Key points UK transitioning from self-sufficiency to large importer Concerns about access to gas and price volatility drive calls for government intervention Globalisation of European gas UK/Europe will attract gas, at a price determined by global supply & demand Volatility may well increase price spikes will happen Some interventions are less disruptive than others but no intervention will bring back cheap gas

4 Contents 1. The UK debate on gas supply security 2. Market developments European and global 3. Policy options

5 UK debate is driven by transition to imports

6 UK dependant on gas and imports Gas imports as % of gas consumption 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% - 20% - 40% - 60% - 80% UK 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Gas as % of primary energy Bubble surface = gas consumption USA South Korea Japan China India EU27 Gulf Russia UK Figures for 2010 Source: BP Statistical Review (2011)

7 Chris Huhne (House of Lords, Select Comm. on Science & Technology) The UK policy debate (1) Energy security: our ability to access imports of crucial physical supplies of energy [and] our ability to withstand serious shocks to the economy from price movements

8 Ofgem Significant Code Review (SCR), gas security Unfreezing cash-out prices in emergencies The UK policy debate (2) Price mechanism should be allowed to work in extreme scarcity Involuntary interruptions should be compensated at Value of lost load However, suppliers liability has to be capped Need for further intervention Several options mentioned, but storage obligation for suppliers seems the preferred one

9 The UK policy debate (3) Poyry study for DECC (2010) Probabilistic analysis of the risk of involuntary interruptions Capacity to meet peak demand in various scenarios Enough capacity to cope with most peak-time disruption scenarios in the years ahead No policy intervention passed the cost-benefit analysis DECC Policy Statement (2010) No problem of security of gas supply But we are not complacent

10 Import capacity is not gas UK security relies on ability to attract gas from European and global markets Market exposed to price spikes Two ways of looking at it If we allow the price to go up we will get gas (and reduce consumption) Price spikes are a solution -- efficient rationing We do not know how high we may have to pay, and high prices have economic (and political) implications The UK debate (2) Price spikes are an energy security problem

11 Economists v. Politicians Economist: look, we are very secure Capacity to access the international market Politician: I don t trust international markets. I want this up

12 Contents 1. The UK debate on gas supply security 2. Market developments European and global 3. Policy options

13 Global markets USD/MMBTU Dec- 01 Dec- 02 Dec- 03 Dec- 04 Dec- 05 Dec- 06 Dec- 07 Dec- 08 Dec- 09 Dec- 10 Japan LNG (average) NBP Henry Hub Asian demand is soaring, wiping out the LNG glut Non contracted LNG (from Qatar) is dwindling UK should pay Asian spot prices for its cargoes Convergence at Asian oilindexed levels? Source: Bloomberg Fukushima Millions Netback to Qatar and Qatari exports to UK bcm/yr UK Japan Qatar exports to UK Netback ratio (UK/Japan) 0 Jan- 06 Jun- 06 Nov- 06 Apr- 07 Sep- 07 Feb- 08 Jul- 08 Dec- 08 May- 09 Oct- 09 Mar- 10 Aug- 10 Jan- 11 Jun Source: Poten Partners database

14 North West Europe = one large market Efficient arbitrages between NBP and ZEE More effective TPA in continental markets (NL; BE; FR; DE) Less contractual congestion (DG COMP action) Oil-indexation is vanishing Noth-West European market is being integrated into global market via the UK NBP TTF PEG ZEE USD / Mbtu Average German Import Price below oil- indexed formula EUR/MWh NCG Baumgarten Dec- 01 Average German Import Price above oil- indexed formula Jun- 02 Dec- 02 Jun- 03 Dec- 03 Jun- 04 Dec- 04 Jun- 05 Dec- 05 Jun- 06 Dec- 06 Jun- 07 Dec- 07 Jun- 08 Dec- 08 Jun- 09 Dec- 09 Jun- 10 Dec- 10 Jun Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov- 10

15 Global market Asia vs. North America Mtoe Source: BP Statistical Review (2011) = Source: BP Statistical Review (2011) China China+India India Asia Gulf Japan EU+TR USSR / FSU EU27 US Bcm/year Aug- 04 Jan- 05 Jun- 05 Nov- 05 Apr- 06 Sep- 06 Feb- 07 Jul- 07 Dec- 07 May- 08 Oct- 08 Mar- 09 Aug- 09 Jan- 10 Jun- 10 Nov- 10 Apr- 11 Turkmenistan (approx.) LNG

16 Towards massive American exports? 90bcm+ projects 22bcm contracted (Sabine) Kitimat FID imminent Long-term pressure on Euro- Asian price

17 Conclusions on market developments Structural trends favorable to UK access to gas European market emerging Globalisation of gas a reality huge expansion of resource base; diversity of suppliers and importers But concerns about volatility not unfounded 9GW of coal will drop from the UK power system huge decrease in short-term price-elasticity of gas demand Short-term elasticity of (LNG) supply seems cyclical was high since 2009, but low during the recent cold spell

18 Contents 1. The UK debate on gas supply security 2. Market developments European and global 3. Policy options

19 UK Policy Choices Do nothing The market has delivered huge import infrastructure investment Not clear there is a market failure in storage investment if volatility increases so does the value of storage Unlikely the government wants to do something Intervention should minimise interference with price mechanism Strategic storage a very bad idea Some form of capacity payment for storage/reserve Should be technology neutral (storage not the only solution) Reliability options should be studied for gas Let s be clear No intervention will change the opportunity cost of gas, which is set by a global market Cheap gas island will not come back

20 Key points UK transitioning from self-sufficiency to large importer Concerns about access to gas and price volatility drive calls for government intervention Globalisation of European gas UK/Europe will attract gas, at a price determined by global supply & demand Volatility may well increase price spikes will happen Some interventions are less disruptive than others but no intervention will bring back cheap gas