Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets

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2 Strong YTD Performance of the PSEi and Global Stock Markets PSEi vs MSCI All Country World Index PSEi +17.7% MSCI+12.2% Two common questions Is this insanity? Or is this sustainable? 90 1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 Source: Bloomberg

3 Extreme Pessimism & Easy Monetary Policy Fuel 2012 s Stock Market Rally 2011: Concerns of Liquidity Freeze and Contagion Resulting from Greece s default Spain CDS Italy CDS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bloomberg

4 Extreme Pessimism & Easy Monetary Policy Fuel 2012 s Stock Market Rally 2011: Growing Preference for US T-bonds despite Extremely Low Rates and Cheap Valuation of Stocks US 30 Year Bond vs MSCI ACWI % % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 30 Year Bond MSCI ACWI Source: Bloomberg

5 Extreme Pessimism & Easy Monetary Policy Fuel 2012 s Stock Market Rally What has Changed? Europe USA ECB provided 490 Bil in 3-year cheap loans to banks Better than expected economic indicators PPP shows progress Philippines Early passage of 2012 budget S&P upgraded ratings outlook

6 LT Outlook Remains Positive Market Drivers Low interest rates Shift from developed to developing economies

7 Low Interest Rates PDS 10-Year Reference Rate (%) Interest Rates on a Downtrend Source: Bloomberg

8 Low Interest Rates Interest Rates to Stay Low Ample liquidity due to easy monetary policy globally Strong likelihood of a ratings upgrade for the Philippines

9 Low Interest Rates Ample Liquidity Due to Easy Monetary Policy Globally December January February ECB provided 490 Bil in 3-year cheap loans to banks BSP cut benchmark rates by 25 bps Fed extended its previous pledge to keep interest rates low from 2013 to at least late 2014 BOJ added 10 Tril to its 20 Tril pool of funds set aside to buy government bonds Cut reserve requirement by 50bps Bank of England increased its asset purchase program by 50 Bil to 325 Bil

10 Low Interest Rates Ample Liquidity Due to Easy Monetary Policy Globally February March Reduced reference rate by 25 bps BSP cut benchmark rates by another 25 bps ECB extended another Bil worth of cheap 3- year loans to 800 banks Central bank cut rates by 75 bps

11 Low Interest Rates Improving Government Finances Revenues/GDP Deficit/GDP Debt/GDP % 4.6% 77.7% % 3.8% 78.2% % 2.7% 71.4% % 1.1% 63.9% % 0.2% 55.8% % 0.9% 57.0% % 3.9% 57.3% % 3.7% 55.4% % 2.0% 50.9% Source: Bureau of Treasury

12 Low Interest Rates In US$Bil Source: BSP and External Accounts Position Remittances Current Account GIR GIR to External Debt % % % % % % % % %

13 Low Interest Rates Imply Strong Likelihood of More Ratings Upgrade Ratings Agency New Rating Upgrade Date S & P BB Nov-10 Moody s B a 2 Jun-11 Fitch BB + Jun-11 S&P upgraded Philippines rating outlook from stable to positive (December 2011) Moody s hints upgrading Philippines credit rating (March 2012)

14 Low Interest Rates Stocks Now a Strong Alternative to Bonds Stock Earnings Yield - Bond Yield Source: Bloomberg

15 Low Interest Rates Strong Potential for Growth in Investor Participation Retail Investor Participation 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 35.1% 43.0% 50.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% Indonesia Philippines Thailand HK Australia USA Source: PSE, various stock exchanges

16 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Philippines Relatively Attractive Fundamentals Absence of structural problems facing developed economies Strong banking system Room for investment spending to grow Government set to implement pump priming activities Resiliency to external shocks

17 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Structural Problems of Developed Economies Ageing population Highly leveraged consumers Highly leveraged government

18 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Absence of Structural Problems Facing Developed Economies USA Europe Japan Philippines % Population >65 year old 13.1% 18.4% 22.9% 4.3% Population average age Household debt/disposable income 114.0% 99.3% 128.0% 9.2% Public debt/gdp 69.4% 85.4% 208.2% 49.4% Deficit/GDP -8.9% -6.2% -8.5% -2.0% As of 2011, except for public debt/gdp & deficit/gdp for Europe (2010), and household debt/disposable income (latest available data) Sources: CIA World Fact Book, OECD Fact Book, European Commission, South East Asian Central Banks Research and Training Centre

19 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Strong banking system Minimum Requirement Capital Adequacy Ratio Philippine Banks (3Q11) Source: BSP BSP 10.0% Basel III (2019) 10.5% 17.0% Banking Statistics (Universal & Commercial Banks) NPL Ratio Provision/NPL % 53.0% % 60.4% % 77.5% % 82.6% % 93.3% % 100.0% % 112.3% % 118.3% % 126.4% Source: BSP

20 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Room for Investment Spending to Grow Investments to GDP (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 20% 21% 23% 24% 25% 26% 23% 23% 24% 22% 23% 22% 22% 19% 18% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 17% 10% 5% 0% Source: NSCB

21 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Room for Investment Spending to Grow Regional Investments-to-GDP Ratio Country Inv-to-GDP Philippines 22% India 31% Indonesia 32% Malaysia 20% Thailand 26% Vietnam 39% Source: Bloomberg, BSP, NSCB, COL estimates

22 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Government set to implement pump priming activities Increase spending by 18% Spending on capital outlay to increase by a faster pace of 24.3% 72.1% of allocation for capital outlays have already been released Roll out of 17 PPP projects, 15 of which will have a combined value of Php196.8 Bil or US$4.6 Bil

23 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies OFW Remittances US$Bil Resiliency to External Shocks % % 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Source: BSP

24 Shift from Developed to Developing Economies Resiliency to External Shocks BPO Revenues (US$ Mil) 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 6,000 4,875 6,061 7,200 4,000 2,000 1,475 2,420 3, Source: BPAP

25 A Possible Correction in the Short Term ST Risks Prices have run ahead of fundamentals Market up 18%, while 12E EPS growth is only 15% Minimal upside risk to earnings forecasts based on 2011 earnings results More stocks trading close to our above consensus FV estimates Continuous rise in oil prices could dampen economic growth

26 A Possible Correction in the Short Term More stocks trading close to our above consensus FV estimates Above Inline Below SECB BDO CEB AP BPI EDC JFC CHIB ICT ALI MBT MER FLI PGOLD MPI SMPH SM MWC URC SCC AC TEL GLO Total: Percentage: 26.1% 30.4% 43.5% Source: COL Estimates

27 A Possible Correction in the Short Term More stocks trading close to our above consensus FV estimates Capital Appreciation Potential > 15% 35% Between 0% to 15% 39% < 0% 26% Source: COL Estimates

28 A Possible Correction in the Short Term Oil prices up by 9.4% for YTD period, and could dampen economic growth Crude Oil (NYMEX) 70 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Bloomberg

29 Strategy Stay invested Manage risks through diversification and buying only stocks that remain cheap Be prepared to buy during pull backs Three themes: Growth Dividends Small cap value

30 Themes: Growth, Dividends & Small Cap Value Model Portfolio FV Current Price Buy Below Price Growth Stocks MBT MPI AC AGI ALI Dividend Plays BPI RLC MWC Small Cap Value FLI MEG EEI

31 Sustainable Insanity Summary The Philippine market is in a long term uptrend driven by low interest rates and the country s attractive fundamentals relative to developed economies However, a correction could take place in the short term given the market s sharp rise for the year to date period, lack of catalyst for earnings upgrades in the short term, and the possible downside risk on economic growth brought about by rising oil prices

32 Sustainable Insanity Summary We expect three themes to outperform in 2012: Growth, Dividends and Small Cap Value Among the stocks in our list, MBT, RLC, MWC, FLI, MEG and EEI can still be bought since they continue to trade at attractive valuations. Meanwhile, wait for pullbacks to buy ALI, MPI, AC, AGI and BPI

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