2016 & 2017 Economic Outlook for The US, CA & Bay Area

Transcription

1 2016 We demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty! Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy 2016 & 2017 Economic Outlook for The US, CA & Bay Area Jerry Nickelsburg Adjunct Professor of Economics Anderson School of Management Senior Economist UCLA Anderson Forecast 1

2 US Outlook Economy Approaching Full Employment 3% Real GDP & 4% Wage Growth Inflation to Exceed 2% - Fed Tightens But Risks Abound 2

3 Job Growth Remains Solid (Millions)

4 Full Employment as Measured by the Unemployment Rate 4

5 Consumers Are Now Driving The Expansion Real Consumer Spending SAAR, 2007:Q1-2017:Q4 5% FORECAST 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6%

6 Autos Are Part of The Reason 20 Light Vehicle Sales Over Expansions: 3 Month Moving Average 18 Millions of Units, SAAR Nov-01 Jun Months before and after business cycle trough 6

7 Housing Starts Rebounding 7

8 3% Real Growth in

9 Inflation on Track to 2+% (Percent Change Year Ago) 6% 4% 2% 0% - 2% Headline 2013 Core

10 How Do We Get a Recession? Not from housing & autos Paths to a recession 1. Unicorns, pentacorns and decacorns, oh my! 2. Equipment & software enough already! 3. Manufacturing & China & The Middle East It s time to save a lot more! 10

11 Record Employment Levels a unique approach. critical answers. Accurate. Thousands 19,000 18,000 California Employment Trends +5.2% 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 3% 3% 13, Total Employment Non- Farm Payroll Jobs 11

12 Geographically widespread 12

13 Population Limits Growth Rates a unique approach. critical answers. Accurate Ratio of Employment to CA population (Ages 18-64)

14 Population Growth a unique approach. critical answers. Accurate Natural Increase 0.86% 0.81% 0.90% With Immigration 0.86% 0.90% 0.94% Housing Starts California New Residential Permits (3 Mo. Moving Average, No. of Units) Annual Housing Starts as % of Housing Stock 2017 = 0.87%

15 But Slowing Growth Does Not Mean Running out of Steam Growth depends on the demand for goods & services Housing Transportation & Logistics Tourism Government 15

16 Volumes At The Seaports Are Up California Seaport Traffic (000 TEU's, SA) Thousands Import By Sea Exports By Sea 16

17 Record International Visitor Arrivals 1,000,000 International Passenger Arrivals (S.A. Monthly) 900, , , , ,000 LAX SFO 400, , ,

18 And Income Tax Revenue Soars Billions California Real Personal Income Tax Revenue (Billions of FY '09$, S.A.)

19 Implications CA growth rates will slow down but growth is not stalling because: US Economy driving logistics and transportation Tourists driving leisure and hospitality High rents driving residential construction Consumers are driving retail Government is expanding modestly on higher tax revenues 19

20 CALIFORNIA FORECAST Payroll Employment 3.0% 2.3% 1.6% Unemployment 6.2% 5.2% 4.9% Personal Income (real) 4.3% 3.4% 3.2% Housing Permits (units) Population Growth 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 20

21 The Anderson Forecast Bay Area Model 5th Annual Bay Area Forecast Forecast flows from U.S. to CA to Bay Area Variables Forecast Employment Unemployment Personal Income Taxable Sales Employment By Industry 21

22 UCLA Bay Area Employment 3,600,000 Bay Area Payroll Employment 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000, % 3.0 % 2.7% 22

23 Bay Area Unemployment 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

24 The Bay Area Forecast Bay Area to continue to outperform New employment highs in 2016 & 2017 The risks to the Bay Area Forecast are the same as the US risks but were they to occur, the impact will be greater 24