THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA
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1 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA June 2013 Report FORECASTS: nd Year
2 UCLA Anderson Forecast Director: Edward E. Leamer Professor of Global Economics and Management and Chauncey J. Medberry Chair in Management The UCLA Anderson Forecast Staff: Jerry Nickelsburg, Senior Economist, Adjunct Professor of Economics David Shulman, Senior Economist Stephen D. Oliner, Senior Economist, Visiting Scholar William Yu, Economist Patricia Nomura, Economic Research and Managing Editor Winnie Ocean, Program and Member Manager George Lee, Publications and Marketing Manager Donald Roby, Conference Coordination The UCLA Anderson Forecast provides the following services: Membership in the California Seminar Membership in the Los Angeles and Regional Modeling Groups The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California Quarterly Forecasting Conferences Special Studies California Seminar and Regional Modeling Groups members receive full annual forecast subscriptions, invitations to private quarterly meetings of the Seminar and the right to access the U.S., California and Regional Econometric models. For information regarding membership in the California Seminar and the Los Angeles and Regional Modeling Groups or to make reservations for future Forecast Conferences, please call (310) The UCLA Anderson Forecast Sponsorships: Are recognized at each conference event, audience includes business, professional and government decisions makers from all over California and the United States Receive prominent placement on conference materials, promotions for event on Forecast website, and Forecast publication Promotional table at the conference events. For information regarding sponsorship of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, please call (310) or visit This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Project s judgements as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the UCLA Anderson Forecast nor The Regents of the University of California shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the UCLA Anderson Forecast, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited. Published quarterly by the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a unit of UCLA Anderson School of Management. It is funded by subscriptions to the Project and through corporate and government memberships in the California seminar. Copyright 2013 by the Regents of the University of California.
3 Sponsors: Academic Sponsors: The Quarterly Forecast Conference: The Housing Recovery: How Long? How Strong? Upcoming Events: Fall Quarterly Conference September 12, 2013 Winter Quarterly Conference December 2013 Spring Quarterly Conference March 2014 Summer Quarterly Conference June 2014
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5 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA June 2013 Report Nation California Great Recovery: Wherefore Art Thou? 11 Edward Leamer The Housing Recovery: 23 How Strong? How Long? David Shulman Charts 29 Recent Evidence Charts 37 Forecast Tables 47 Summary Tables 51 Detailed Tables 60 Long-Term Summary Tables 62 Quarterly Summary Tables 64 Long-Term Detailed The Market for Construction Labor: 75 Shortages Already? Jerry Nickelsburg What Predicts the Long-Term Home 81 Price Appreciation of a City? William Yu Charts 91 Recent Evidence Charts 96 Forecast Tables 105 Summary Tables 106 Long-Term Summary Tables 107 Quarterly Summary Tables 108 Detailed Tables 109 Long-Term Detailed
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7 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION JUNE 2013 REPORT Great Recovery: Wherefore Art Thou? The Housing Recovery: How Strong? How Long?
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9 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Great Recovery: Wherefore Art Thou? The Problems Remain: Government Spending, Government Debt, Inadequate Savings, and Most of All, Workforce Shortcomings Edward Leamer Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2013 UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 11
10 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? ALMOST FOUR YEARS, AND STILL NO RECOVERY Figure 1 US Real GDP Is Growing Nicely Figure 2 Figure 3 Payroll jobs are growing nicely too But GDP is 15,4% Below Trend Growth 12 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
11 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 4 Payroll jobs are 11% below trend Growth Figure 5 The Unemployment Rate Has Declined Figure 6 The Employment to Population Ratio Has Been Constant UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 13
12 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? GOVERNMENT IS PART OF THE PROBLEM GDP IS NOT RECOVERING 14 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
13 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 7 Government Spending Share of GDP Figure 9 Real GDP Growth, 2005Q1-2015Q4F Figure 8 Government Surpluses Share of GDP Figure 10 Government Surplus Share of Revenues UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 15
14 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 11 Housing Is Finally in Recovery, Thanks to a Building Time-out Long Enough to Achieve an Underbuilt Status THE COMPONENTS OF GDP ARE BEHAVING VERY DIFFERENTLY: THE REAL DRAGS HAVE BEEN HOMES AND STATE/LOCAL GOVERNMENT 16 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
15 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 12 The Federal Reserve Continues to Dish Out Huge Quantities of Monetary Medicine, With No Apparent Effect Table Q2 Departures of GDP and its Components from Trend UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 17
16 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 13 Components of GDP Still Receding Compared with Trend Figure 14 Components of GDP Well Below Trend, But Growing Normally 18 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
17 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 15 Components of GDP Close to Trend Figure 16 Cumulative Contributions: Exports and Imports UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 19
18 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? THE LABOR MARKET: WE NEED TO STOP HORSING AROUND Table 2 Payroll Jobs 20 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
19 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 17 Moving Averages of Annualized Growth of Payroll Jobs Figure 18 Payroll Jobs: Normal growth Sectors UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 21
20 GREAT RECOVERY: WHEREFORE ART THOU? Figure 19 Payroll Jobs: Recovering Sectors Figure 20 Payroll Growth: Deteriorating Sectors 22 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
21 THE HOUSING RECOVERY: HOW STRONG? HOW LONG? The Housing Recovery: How Strong? How Long? David Shulman Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2013 Figure 1 Housing Starts, 1959Q1 2015Q4E UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 23
22 THE HOUSING RECOVERY: HOW STRONG? HOW LONG? Figure 2 Case-Shiller Home Price index, 2000 March 2013, Monthly Data, 2000=100. Figure 3 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate, 2000Q1 2015Q4F Figure 4 Existing Home Sales, F 24 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
23 THE HOUSING RECOVERY: HOW STRONG? HOW LONG? Figure 5 Payroll Employment, 2000Q1 2015Q4F Figure 7 Student Loan Debt, 2003Q1 2012Q4 Figure 6 Household Formations, F THE MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING BOOM UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 25
24 THE HOUSING RECOVERY: HOW STRONG? HOW LONG? Figure 8 Homeownership Rate, F, Yearend Data, Percent 26 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
25 THE HOUSING RECOVERY: HOW STRONG? HOW LONG? Figure 9 Apartment Vacancy Rate, Q1, Percent Figure 10 Consumer Price Index, Rent for Primary Residence, Jan 2000 Mar 2013 UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 27
26 THE HOUSING RECOVERY: HOW STRONG? HOW LONG? Figure 11 Multi-Family housing Starts, F ENDNOTES 28 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
27 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION JUNE 2013 REPORT Charts
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29 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 31
30 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE 32 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
31 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 33
32 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE 34 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
33 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 35
34 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE 36 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
35 CHARTS FORECAST UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 37
36 CHARTS FORECAST 38 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
37 CHARTS FORECAST UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 39
38 CHARTS FORECAST 40 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
39 CHARTS FORECAST UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 41
40 CHARTS FORECAST 42 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
41 CHARTS FORECAST UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 43
42
43 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION JUNE 2013 REPORT Tables
44
45 FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 47
46 FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY 48 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
47 FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 49
48 FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY 50 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
49 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 51
50 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED 52 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
51 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 53
52 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED 54 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
53 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 55
54 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED 56 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
55 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 57
56 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED 58 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
57 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 59
58 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM SUMMARY 60 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
59 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM SUMMARY UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 61
60 FORECAST TABLES - QUARTERLY SUMMARY 62 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
61 FORECAST TABLES - QUARTERLY SUMMARY UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 63
62 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED 64 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
63 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 65
64 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED 66 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
65 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 67
66 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED 68 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
67 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 69
68 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED 70 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
69 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Nation 71
70 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED 72 Nation UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
71 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION JUNE 2013 REPORT The Market for Construction Labor: Shortages Already? What Predicts the Long-Term Home Price Appreciation of a City?
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73 THE MARKET FOR CONSTRUCTION LABOR The Market for Construction Labor: Shortages Already? Jerry Nickelsburg Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast Adjunct Professor of Economics, UCLA Anderson School June 2013 EMPLOYMENT RETROSPECTIVE: STILL GROWING AFTER ALL THESE YEARS UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California-75
74 THE MARKET FOR CONSTRUCTION LABOR THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR: IN WHAT SENSE A RECOVERY? 76 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
75 THE MARKET FOR CONSTRUCTION LABOR UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California-77
76 THE MARKET FOR CONSTRUCTION LABOR 78 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
77 THE MARKET FOR CONSTRUCTION LABOR THE FORECAST ENDNOTES UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California-79
78
79 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? What Predicts the Long-Term Home Price Appreciation of a City? Evidence From 1995 to 2012 William Yu Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2013 Figure 1 Single-Family Home Price Appreciation from 1995Q1 to 2012Q3 for the 30 Largest Metropolitan Areas in the U.S. UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 81
80 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? SUPPLY AND DEMAND LITERATURE REVIEW RATIO OF BUILDING PERMIT GROWTH TO PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH 82 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
81 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? Figure 2 The Percentage of Undevelopable Area within 50-km of a Metro Center for the 30 Largest Metropolitan Areas in the U.S. Figure 3 The Correlation Between Home Price Growth ( ) and the Ratio of Permit Growth to Personal Income Growth ( ) UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 83
82 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? Table 1 Home Price Growth ( ) and Supply-to-Demand Ratio for the 30 Largest Cities 84 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
83 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Figure 4 The Correlation Between Housing Affordability in 2011 and the Ratio of Permit Growth to Personal Income Growth ( ) MULTIVARIABLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS Figure 5 The Correlation Between Home Price Growth ( ) and Saiz (2010) s Undevelopable Area of A City UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 85
84 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? Table 2 Estimation Results 86 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
85 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? HOME SUPPLY AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 87
86 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? Figure 6. Malpezzi (1996) s City Regulation Index CONCLUSIONS 88 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
87 WHAT PREDICTS THE LONG-TERM HOME PRICE APPRECIATION OF A CITY? ENDNOTES UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 89
88
89 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA JUNE 2013 REPORT Charts
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91 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 93
92 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE 94 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
93 CHARTS RECENT EVIDENCE UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 95
94 CHARTS FORECAST 96 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
95 CHARTS FORECAST UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 97
96 CHARTS FORECAST 98 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
97 CHARTS FORECAST UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 99
98 CHARTS FORECAST 100 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
99 CHARTS FORECAST UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 101
100
101 THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA JUNE 2013 REPORT Tables
102
103 FORECAST TABLES - SUMMARY UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 105
104 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM SUMMARY 106 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
105 FORECAST TABLES - QUARTERLY SUMMARY UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 107
106 FORECAST TABLES - DETAILED 108 California UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
107 FORECAST TABLES - LONG-TERM DETAILED UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 California 109
108
109 REGIONAL MODELING GROUP UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Regional Modeling Group 111
110 REGIONAL MODELING GROUP 112 Regional Modeling Group UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
111 SEMINAR MEMBERS UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Seminar Members 113
112 SEMINAR MEMBERS 114 Seminar Members UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
113 SEMINAR MEMBERS UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Seminar Members 115
114 SEMINAR MEMBERS 116 Seminar Members UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
115 EMBARGOED: DO NOT RELEASE UNTIL 1:00AM, JUNE 5, 2013 PDT UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Sponsors-117
116 EMBARGOED: DO NOT RELEASE UNTIL 1:00AM, JUNE 5, 2013 PDT 118-Sponsors UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
117 UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Sponsors-119
118 MEMBERS Corporate 6 Corporate 4 Corporate 3 Individual Member Members UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
119 MEMBERS UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Members - 121
120 SPEAKERS 122 Speakers UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
121 SPEAKERS UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013 Speakers 123
122 SPEAKERS 124 Speakers UCLA Anderson Forecast, June 2013
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION AND CALIFORNIA March 2014 Report FORECASTS: 2014 1 st Quarter 2016 4 th Quarter 63 rd Year UCLA Anderson Forecast Director: Edward E. Leamer Professor of Global
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