A Revenue Forecast The City of Hayward, California

Transcription

1 Analysis. Answers Jordan G. Levine Economist and Director of Economic Research Beacon Economics A Revenue Forecast The City of Hayward, California December 17, 2013 Beacon Economics, LLC pg

2 The Big Picture o Time-Series Econometric Approach Regression establishes historical relationships Historical correlations inform the future o Top-Down Modeling Technique Forecast U.S. economy, from employment to output U.S. forecast guides California model California model used to guide East Bay East Bay model drives sub-regional forecast o Holistic Approach to Revenue Forecasting Incorporates broad macro trends in Nation/State Combines trends with local-specific performance Accounts for previous blips and under-/over-performance pg

3 Bernanke was right things are improving. o Sure its been a recovery to forget The US never saw the typical post-recession bounce Economic Fundamentals have not returned to normal levels o Stop focusing on the levels. Watch the trends Economy seeing some modest acceleration despite headwinds Consumers holding steady despite tax increases Business investment soft, but earnings are solid Global economy gaining traction State and local government starting to turn the corner Interest rates still very low, Residential markets remain hot o Three Kinds of Problems Stimulative policies have to be unwound Medium term impacts of technological change Leaders focus on unimportant issues ignoring what truly matter pg3

4 The disappointing recovery pg4

5 Are common prescriptions remedies? pg5

6 Why the disappointing recovery? pg6

7 The local story o East Bay and Hayward are improving Slower out of the gate, but making progress Not isolated to one particular city or sector o East Bay was a growth region before Poised for ongoing acceleration May key strengths including: - Proximity to large employment centers - Relative affordability relative to neighbors to west o Better economy will mean better revenues for the City of Hayward in coming years pg

8 East Bay: slow out of the gate Region Feb-10 Oct-13 Change (000s) Change (%) San Luis Obispo San Francisco (MD) , San Jose Bakersfield Orange County (MD) 1, , Other Bay Area San Diego 1, , Central Coast Other Southern California Inland Empire 1, , Los Angeles (MD) 3, , Oakland (MD) South Central Valley North Central Valley 1, , California 13, , pg8

9 But things are improving pg9

10 Even better than they appear pg10

11 Residents matter for revenues Indicator Nonfarm Empl t Household Empl t Peak Month Mar-07 Jan-08 Peak Employment (000s) 1, ,211.4 Trough Month Aug-10 Dec-09 Trough Employment (000s) ,138.0 Peak to Trough (000s) Peak to Trough (%) Current Month Oct-13 Oct-13 Current Employment (000s) ,208.8 Trough to Current (000s) Trough to Current (%) Remaining to Peak (000s) Remaining to Peak (%) pg11

12 Unemployment: Down for Right Reasons pg12

13 Broad-based recovery Industry Aug-10 Oct-13 Change Change (%) Leisure/Hospitality Construction Prof Sci and Tech Education/Health Retail Trade Admin Support Transport,Warehouse,Util Wholesale Trade Management Manufacturing Other Services Farm NR/Mining Financial Activities Information Government Total Private Total Nonfarm pg13

14 Jobs created across wage spectrum Industry Aug-10 Oct-13 Change (000s) Change (%) 2012 Ann. Avg. Wage Leisure/Hospitality ,093 Government ,037 Construction ,244 Prof Sci and Tech ,349 Education/Health ,863 Retail Trade ,195 Admin Support ,225 Transport,Warehouse,Util ,766 Wholesale Trade ,365 Management ,314 Manufacturing ,462 Other Services ,651 Farm ,698 Real Estate ,163 NR/Mining ,210 Finance and Insurance ,143 Information ,708 Total Private ,069 Total Nonfarm ,500 pg14

15 Firms to continue expanding pg15

16 Not just the labor markets 2013 Central Coast Economic Forecast pg16

17 Spending continues to improve City 2012 YTD 2013 YTD Change (%) Martinez 326, , San Ramon 560, , Livermore 1,389,023 1,655, Union City 555, , Newark 596, , San Pablo 123, , Alameda 466, , Pleasanton 1,282,539 1,352, Fremont 2,244,488 2,338, Emeryville 500, , Oakland 2,989,285 3,066, Dublin 1,061,588 1,079, Hayward 1,935,028 1,962, Berkeley 1,050,783 1,052, Hercules 101, , Danville 331, , Orinda 62,423 61, Antioch 701, , East Bay Total 28,679,960 29,981, pg17

18 Not isolated to one type of spending Category 2012 YTD 2013 YTD Change (%) Autos/Transportation 26,753,603 29,705, Building/Construction 13,840,160 15,624, Business/Industry 33,100,177 31,989, Food/Drugs 10,940,838 11,327, Fuel/Service Stations 21,352,051 21,077, General Consumer Goods 38,870,482 41,545, Restaurants/Hotels 18,725,322 20,231, Total 186,903, ,452, pg18

19 Hayward taxable sales pg19

20 Outsiders having an impact pg20

21 Drawing in visitors Airport Sep-13 YTD Change YTD (%) Orange County - SNA 7,106, Los Angeles - LAX 49,841, San Jose - SJC 6,400, San Diego - SAN 13,233, San Francisco - SFO 33,441, Sacramento - SMF 6,511, Oakland - OAK 7,315, Burbank - Bob Hope 2,886, Long Beach - LGB 2,216, Ontario - ONT 2,920, California Totals 131,654, pg21

22 U.S. competitive again good for CA pg22

23 TOT forecast to improve pg23

24 Real estate a driver of growth pg24

25 Local residential market City Change (%) Sales Alameda Concord 1,011 1, Oakland 2,412 2, Fremont 1,368 1, Hayward 1,072 1, Berkeley Brentwood Antioch 1,319 1, Richmond Oakland MD 19,826 19, Median Prices Oakland 287, , Richmond 147, , Hayward 287, , Concord 303, , Antioch 207, , Brentwood 316, , Alameda 568, , Fremont 564, , Berkeley 659, , Oakland MD 358, , pg25

26 Fewer distressed units in the mix City Change (%) Defaults Brentwood Richmond Concord Hayward Fremont Berkeley Oakland 1, Alameda Antioch Oakland MD 11,375 4, Foreclosures Alameda Berkeley Fremont Hayward Concord Brentwood Antioch Richmond Oakland Oakland MD 5,527 2, pg26

27 Demand drivers still solid pg27

28 Forecasting return to normal pg28

29 Apartment market is hot pg29

30 Builders getting back to business City 2012 YTD 2013 YTD Change Multi-Family Units WALNUT CREEK FREMONT EMERYVILLE NEWARK LAFAYETTE HAYWARD OAKLAND EAST BAY Single-Family Units ORINDA BERKELEY ALBANY PITTSBURG BRENTWOOD WALNUT CREEK PLEASANT HILL OAKLEY FREMONT LIVERMORE DUBLIN LAFAYETTE HAYWARD EAST BAY pg30

31 Commercial: slower out of the gate pg31

32 Markets are improving Location Offices (Q3-13) Office Change (YoY, %) Retail (Q3-13) Retail Change (YoY, %) Location Offices (Q3-13) Office Change (YoY, %) Retail (Q3-13) Retail Change (YoY, %) Cost of Rent Vacancy Rate Bakersfield Inland Empire Los Angeles East Bay Orange Co Sacramento San Diego San Fran San Jose Bakersfield Inland Empire Los Angeles East Bay Orange Co Sacramento San Diego San Fran San Jose pg32

33 Building resuming slowly City 2013 YTD Change (%) Antioch 11,239, Pleasant Hill 17,492, Dublin 32,278, Union City 29,036, San Pablo 3,287, El Cerrito 3,121, Oakley 3,300, Hercules 889, Hayward 46,604, Fremont 187,260, Emeryville 39,230, Alameda 14,021, San Ramon 84,595, Richmond 53,170, San Leandro 29,286, Walnut Creek 25,730, Danville 4,359, Martinez 6,888, Brentwood 3,745, Berkeley 33,163, Oakland 38,172, East Bay Total 879, pg33

34 Property taxes pg34

35 The Forecasts pg35

36 3-year economic forecast Indicator Total Population 2,635,218 2,659,270 2,685, Pop. Growth (%) Unemployment Rate Total Nonfarm Employment , , ,066.6 Employment Growth (%) Median Home Price 463, , , ,713 Home Price Growth (%) Home Sales 26,128 28,801 29,959 30,208 Home Sales Growth (%) Nonresidential Permit Values ($ Millions) , ,085.7 Nonres. Permit Growth (%) Single-Family Building Permits (000s) Multi-Family Building Permits (000s) Taxable Sales ($ Millions) 41,245 43,468 45,972 48,543 pg36

37 5-year revenue forecast Revenue Stream FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 Net Assessed Valuation 14,875,241 15,785,266 16,785,046 17,728,092 18,585,002 19,399,275 Growth (%) Property Tax Revenues 39,181,750 41,578,777 44,212,222 46,696,229 48,953,351 51,098,166 Growth (%) Sales Tax Revenues 28,534,228 29,388,050 29,848,421 31,605,309 33,209,792 34,495,909 Growth (%) Transient Occupancy Tax 1,678,589 1,791,037 1,859,695 1,945,020 2,028,086 2,120,167 Growth (%) Property Transfer Tax 4,595,640 5,081,208 6,373,808 7,319,699 7,796,151 8,185,106 Growth (%) Business License Tax 2,493,454 2,636,751 2,715,302 2,882,210 3,006,825 3,158,511 Growth (%) pg37

38 Wrap-up o Local economy has been slower out of the gate o But East Bay and Hayward are in a recovery: Employment is growing Consumers are spending Housing and apartments are hot New construction is bouncing back Many local strengths to leverage going forward o Forecasting continued growth in 2014 and beyond pg38

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