August 18, Forecasting Modeling: Yang Yang, Ph.D. School of Tourism and Hospitality Management Temple University

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1 Charleston County Hospitality Performance Forecast for August 18, 2015 Bing Pan, Ph.D. & Melinda Patience Office of Tourism Analysis School of Business College of Charleston, Charleston, SC Phone: (843) Forecasting Modeling: Yang Yang, Ph.D. School of Tourism and Hospitality Management Temple University

2 Executive Summary From January to July 2015, Charleston County has seen a stable occupancy (-0.6%) with a significant increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR, +7.1%) compared to the same period last year. The similar trend applies to the Peninsula: a stable occupancy (+0.7%) and an increase in ADR (+8.0%). The outlook for the coming 17 months is for solid growth in ADRs and stability or drop in the occupancy rate. The occupancy rates for Peninsula hotels are forecasted to drop slightly from 79.4% for 2015 and 77.5% for The average daily rate is forecasted to increase to $ in 2015 with continued growth to $ in The Charleston County hotel occupancy rates are forecasted to remain steady at 73.3% in 2015 and 73.2% in The ADR for the County hotels is forecasted to increase from $ in 2015 to $ in

3 Background Globally, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) reported in June 2015 that the outlook for the world economy in 2015 is at 2.5% and is now weaker than previously forecasted in their annual update. 1 Wells Fargo predicts that GDP growth for 2015 will come in at 3.0% and increase slightly to 3.6% in The United States has picked up speed in economic growth in 2015: first quarter of GDP growth is 0.6% and the second quarterly is 2.3% 3. U.S GDP growth in 2015 is now forecasted to be 2.3% compared to the earlier forecast of 2.8%. The US unemployment rate is expected to be around 5.4% for 2015 and drop slightly to 5.0% in The travel and tourism industry is expected to register positive growth for the sixth consecutive year and outperform the wider economy. The WTTC notes that international air passenger traffic will continue to grow in 2015 and surpass that in Locally, from January to July 2015, Charleston County has seen a stable occupancy (-0.6%) with a significant increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR, +7.1%) compared to the same period last year. The similar trend applies to the peninsula: a stable occupancy (+0.7%) and an increase in ADR (+8.0%). Charleston has gained wider reputation as a top destination in the U.S and the world; however the projected increase of about 500 rooms in the Charleston area in the end of 2015 complicates the prospect of ADRs and occupancy. In this report, a forecast for Charleston County and Charleston Peninsula hotels is presented. The data was provided by Smith Travel Research and compiled by the Office of Tourism Analysis at the 1 Travel and Tourism Trends and Economic Impact: June 2015 Monthly Update, World Travel and Tourism Council. 2 Economics group, March 11, 2015, Wells Fargo 3 U.S. Economy at a Glance: Perspective from the BEA Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis 4 Wells Fargo Securities, Economics Group, Monthly Outlook, July 8,

4 College of Charleston. Dr. Yang Yang in the School of Tourism and Hospitality Management in Temple University developed the forecast model. Past Forecasts Last year s forecast for Peninsula hotels with a comparison to the actual is presented in Table 1. The average Rate from August 2014 to July 2015 was forecasted to be 80.2%. The actual came in at 81.8%. The average percentage error is 2.8%. The average ADR for the forecast period was predicted to be $ which was low compared to the actual average of $ with average percentage error rate of 4.2%. Table 1. Peninsula Hotels Monthly Forecast Comparisons Year Month (%) Actual Average Daily Rate Actual Forecast Error (%) ADR Forecast Error (%) 2014 August $ $ September $ $ October $ $ November $ $ December $ $ January $ $ February $ $ March $ $ April $ $ May $ $ June $ $ July $ $ Average $ $

5 Last year s forecast for Charleston County hotels compared to the actual is presented in Table 2. The forecasted average was only 0.2 percentage points higher than the actual result; 74.5% forecasted compared to 74.3% actual. The average percentage error is 2.0%. The ADR was underestimated by less than $2.00. The forecast was for $ and the actual average turned in at $ with an average percentage error of 2.1%. Table 2. Charleston County Hotels Monthly Forecast Comparisons Year Month (%) Actual Average Daily Rate Actual Forecast Error (%) ADR Forecast Error (%) 2014 August $ $ September $ $ October $ $ November $ $ December $ $ January $ $ February $ $ March $ $ April $ $ May $ $ June $ $ July $ $ Average $ $

6 Historic Trends In Figure 1 the monthly trends in Rates and the ADR for Charleston Peninsula hotels are shown. The obvious observation is a strong seasonal pattern for both variables. Trend lines are plotted with the data. The ADR exhibits a steady upward trend since The annualized growth rate since 1987 is about 8.5%. The ADR reflects both increased demand and inflation. The occupancy Rate shows a slight upward trend with an annual increase of 0.4%. Figure 1. and ADR Trends for Charleston Peninsula Hotels,

7 In Figure 2, the monthly trends in Rates and the ADR for Charleston County hotels are shown. Much like the Peninsula hotels, the ADR has exhibited a steady upward trend, however starting in 2008 the average levels were below the trend as would be expected given the effects of the Great Recession combined with almost no inflation. The annualized growth rate in the County ADR from 1987 to 2014 is 6.8%. The trend in occupancy rates is almost flat. This is somewhat remarkable given the increase in room inventory over the years (Figure 3). Figure 2. and ADR Trends for Charleston County Hotels, Figure 3. Charleston County and Peninsula Room Inventory,

8 Figure 4 charts the trends in airport traffic by plotting the annual number of deplanements at Charleston International Airport. Since 2010, the number of passengers has been on an upward trend increasing from just over 1 million (1,009,145) to 1.4 million (1,442,691) in The forecast for 2014 and 2015 is for continued but more modest growth in airport traffic. Figure 4. Airport Traffic (Deplanements) Forecasts for 2015 and 2016 Because of the inter-connection between hotel demand and price suggested by economic demand theory, we propose a vector autoregressive model to forecast the occupancy rate and ADR simultaneously. The model incorporates seasonality as well as the supply of hotel rooms, which is measured by the hotel room inventory. A lag of 13 months is used to capture the historic performance s influences. To generate the forecasts, a dynamic strategy is used to predict future values in a recursive way. Based on the previous discussion, Rates for Peninsula hotels are forecasted to drop slightly from 79.4% in 2015 and 77.5% in The ADR is forecast to increase from $ in 2015 to $ in 2016 (Table 3, Figure 5, and Figure 6). Rates for Charleston County hotels are 7

9 forecasted to also remain steady at 73.3% in 2015 and 73.2% in The ADR is expected to continue to increase from $ in 2015 to $ in 2016 (Table 3, Figure 7, and Figure 8). Table 3. Monthly Forecasts for Charleston County and Peninsula Hotels: Peninsula Area Charleston County (%) Average Daily Rates (%) Average Daily Rates 2015 January 67.5 $ $ Actual February 76.0 $ $ March 81.7 $ $ April 92.2 $ $ May 88.7 $ $ June 89.9 $ $ July 86.5 $ $ August 80.5 $ $ Forecast September 76.3 $ $ October 84.2 $ $ November 71.8 $ $ December 57.8 $ $ Average 79.4 $ $ January 60.1 $ $ Forecast February 70.8 $ $ March 85.2 $ $ April 91.0 $ $ May 86.5 $ $ June 87.5 $ $ July 83.0 $ $ August 77.0 $ $ September 74.2 $ $ October 84.5 $ $ November 72.7 $ $ December 57.0 $ $ Average 77.5 $ $

10 Figure 5. Charleston Peninsula Annual Rates with Forecast ( ) Figure 6. Charleston Peninsula Annual Average Daily Rates with Forecast ( ) Figure 7. Charleston County Annual Rates with Forecast ( ) Figure 8. Charleston County Annual Average Daily Rate with Forecast ( ) 9